it was Arrhenius
by jarl ahlbeck
It was Arrhenius in Sweden who made the first calculation about climate warming due to CO2 100 yrs ago. He got the sign right, so he made a pretty good job. With today's more quantitative knowledge, a model without feedbacks would give abt 1 deg C warming for double CO2, all the hypothetical rest is feedbacks that we still cannot quantify, especially regarding water vapor (the biggest contribution to the greenhouse effect) and clouds. If the total feedbacks would be strongly positive (amplifying) one could think that it should be seen in the measurements. I can not see any such amplifying. Why should I believe in strong amplifying if I cannot see it, especially when I know that the theory supporting amplifying is shaky? When the Arctic rapidly warmed in the 1930s (fully naturally) people (my mother) said that the climate was improving. Go to Jakutsk in Siberia (minus 50 deg C this week) and warn the people for winter warming! I have been there, it was a Russian white and icy hell, "belyi Gulag".
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by jarl ahlbeck
It was Arrhenius in Sweden who made the first calculation about climate warming due to CO2 100 yrs ago. He got the sign right, so he made a pretty good job. With today's more quantitative knowledge, a model without feedbacks would give abt 1 deg C warming for double CO2, all the hypothetical rest is feedbacks that we still cannot quantify, especially regarding water vapor (the biggest contribution to the greenhouse effect) and clouds. If the total feedbacks would be strongly positive (amplifying) one could think that it should be seen in the measurements. I can not see any such amplifying. Why should I believe in strong amplifying if I cannot see it, especially when I know that the theory supporting amplifying is shaky? When the Arctic rapidly warmed in the 1930s (fully naturally) people (my mother) said that the climate was improving. Go to Jakutsk in Siberia (minus 50 deg C this week) and warn the people for winter warming! I have been there, it was a Russian white and icy hell, "belyi Gulag".
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