Apr 1st 2017

The Battle Over Syria’s Future

by Alon Ben-Meir

 

Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a retired professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He taught courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies for over 20 years.

As we approach the sixth year of Syria’s civil war, the whole international community remains completely inept and has failed to join together in the search for a solution that could end the horrifying slaughter of thousands of innocent civilians each month. Sadly (but for obvious reasons), each of the countries and other groups involved, including Russia, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the US, the Assad government, and the rebels, are focused solely on what best serves their own national interests.

I am not naïve enough to assume that the players involved would behave any differently, as none are guided by a moral compass that seeks to prevent at all costs the shocking loss of countless numbers of innocent men, women, and children.

The issue over which all the players have collective concern is the defeat of ISIS. But what is the end-game in Syria post-ISIS? More than six years of fighting has resulted to date in the death of nearly 500,000 mostly innocent civilians, with half the population (11 out of 22 million) having become refugees or internally displaced.

Nevertheless, what is needed is a recognition of the interests of all the stakeholders, whose presence and role in Syria is sine qua non to finding a solution that will ultimately serve Syria’s long-term national interests and end the tragedy that has had no equal since World War II.

Russia today is the leading arbiter, and its presence in Syria dates back nearly five decades. Its permanent naval base and huge investment in resources throughout the civil war place Russia in a position to frame the outcome of any solution, and it will continue to support Assad as long as he safeguards Moscow’s interests. Russia wants to minimize the US’ influence, but also recognizes that American support of any agreement remains essential due to the US’ extensive regional influence that has a direct bearing on Syria’s future.

Turkey feels threatened by the development of events in Syria, and President Erdogan is determined to maintain a certain presence in the country because: a) he wants to prevent the Syrian Kurds from establishing autonomous rule and accuses the YPG – the Kurdish militia – of being terrorists who are fighting alongside the PKK; and b) Erdogan desires to lead the Sunni Muslim world and “Islamize” conservatively the country next door to ensure Turkey’s continuing influence under the guise of national security. Even though Turkey is at the negotiating table in Geneva along with Russia and Iran, the military intervention of Russia in Syria’s civil war in September 2015 challenged Turkey’s interests and heighten the tension between the two countries. Moreover, Turkey’s growing discord with the US over the Syrian Kurds contributed to Turkey’s major setback in Syria.

Iran is the second most important player and it will not relinquish its interest in Syria under any circumstances. Iran wants to maintain its strategic influence from the Gulf to the Mediterranean. For Tehran, Syria is the crucial linchpin that allows it to project its power throughout this crescent with the implicit support of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Like Russia, Iran has invested heavily in money, materials, and manpower in the war efforts; it has and will continue to support Assad and will insist, perhaps informally, on maintaining a permanent foothold in Syria.

Saudi Arabia is Iran’s chief rival over regional hegemony and is seeking to strengthen the position of the Sunni majority in Syria, prevent Iran from establishing a strong foothold in the country, and remove Assad. For the Saudis, Syria has become, along with Iraq, the battleground between the Sunnis and Shiites. Although Saudi Arabia has been supporting the rebels with money and equipment, Riyadh refused to introduce ground troops in the fight against ISIS, which could have also cemented its role in the country to counter the presence of Iran’s Shiite militias. Thus, it has seriously weakened its position in any future negotiations and their outcome.

President Assad, who has clung to his allies Russia and Iran, knows that his lease on life depends on their continued backing. He will agree to make almost any concession to both countries to ensure their continuing support to stay in power. His recent gains against ISIS and the rebels with the support of Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah have only emboldened him to stay the course, and inevitably he will have to be part of any future solution.

The Syrian rebels, especially the Free Syrian Army (FSA), have largely been in retreat; nevertheless, they remain a force to be reckoned with in current and any future peace negotiations. The rebel representatives (mostly Sunnis) will remain steadfast to secure some of their important demands for social and political reforms and human rights. They will have to accept though the probability that in any future solution, Assad will lead a transitional government, however nominally, for at least several years.

Given the divergent interests of the players involved, the US should interject itself into the negotiation process and make efforts to ensure that should an agreement be reached, it will help facilitate the resolution of other regional conflicts. Notwithstanding the current precarious relationship between the US and Russia, the cooperation between the two countries is essential to finding a permanent solution to Syria’s civil war based on the following:

First, a new federalist decentralized government should be created technically led by Assad, with which the main sects (Kurds, Alawites, Sunnis, and Christians) maintain a loose connection. The power of this government should be invested in national projects to rebuild the nation’s infrastructure while focusing on the resettlement of refugees and internally displaced persons.

Second, the US must accept the inevitable: Russia, having invested so extensively in the past six years, will maintain a stronger and more visible military presence in Syria that it had before the civil war, for decades to come.

Third, Iran will insist on maintaining a permanent presence, but it must be warned by the US publicly and directly that creating a third front from which to threaten Israel will not be tolerated. Any such provocation will be seen and dealt with as if it were a threat against the US. Iran will also have to restrain Hezbollah to prevent any future conflagration with Israel.

Fourth, whereas Turkey claims to have national security concerns, it must not be allowed to dictate the fate of the Kurdish community in Syria. The US must make it abundantly clear to Erdogan that meddling in Syrian Kurdish affairs is not acceptable. The solution to the Turkish Kurdish problem lies with reaching an agreement with its own Kurdish nationals.

Fifth, a process of peace and reconciliation must be undertaken and supervised by representatives of the Syrian population with the UN that will include the other involved countries to prevent revenge and retribution. This will be necessary to smooth the way toward restoring normal life, albeit it will take many years to heal emotional scars and the agony of dislocation that has affected just about every Syrian.

Sixth, a massive international aid effort will have to be undertaken. Tens of billions of dollars will be necessary to facilitate the return of the refugees, the rehabilitation of the internally displaced, and the rebuilding of the country’s infrastructure and other social services.

I feel safe to speculate that the situation in Syria would not have become so calamitous had former President Obama interfered early on in the conflict. He might have been able to help not only bring an end to Syria’s civil war which has claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands under his watch, but also prevent Russia from filling the vacuum that he created, making Moscow the most powerful player in Syria.

President Trump must remember that although ISIS’ defeat is critical, he has to develop a comprehensive strategy that will not only shape the final framework of an agreement in cooperation with Russia, but also facilitate a solution to other regional conflicts. Time is running out and the body count must stop.

Browse articles by author

More Current Affairs

Mar 31st 2023
EXTRACT: "Although the EU will have gained more internal stability, its basic character will have changed. Security will be a central concern for the foreseeable future. The EU will have to start thinking of itself as a geopolitical power and as a defense community working closely with NATO. Its identity will no longer be defined mainly by its economic community, its common market, or its customs union. The bloc has already accepted Ukraine as a candidate for future membership, and that decision was driven almost entirely by geopolitical considerations (as was also the case, previously, with Turkey and the West Balkan states)."
Mar 30th 2023
EXTRACT: "As I have long warned, central banks ..... will likely wimp out (by curtailing monetary-policy normalization) to avoid a self-reinforcing economic and financial meltdown, .... "
Mar 30th 2023
EXTRACT: "Netanyahu is simply unfit to be prime minister of Israel. He is a liar, a schemer and a fraud. If he has an ounce of integrity left in him, he should resign and save the country instead of stopping short of nothing, however evil, to save his skin."
Mar 29th 2023
EXTRACTS: "Though Mao Zedong viewed himself as Joseph Stalin’s peer, leading the world’s peasant communists as Stalin led its proletarians, behind closed doors Stalin reportedly called Mao a “caveman Marxist” and a “talentless partisan.” " ----- "Stalin’s behavior enraged Mao." ---- "When ..... Khrushchev, took over as Soviet premier following Stalin’s death in 1953, Mao paid back for Stalin’s disdain – and then some. On his return from his trip to Beijing in 1958, Khrushchev talked incessantly about how unpleasant his experience had been." ---- "Even if Xi did not have the upper hand before Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his war of choice in Ukraine, he certainly has it now..." --- "So, when Xi arrived in Moscow ..... he carried himself with an air of superiority, whereas Putin’s expressions appeared strained."
Mar 27th 2023
EXTRACT: "The spectacular collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) – the second-largest bank failure in US history – has evoked memories of the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers, which sparked the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. But the current situation is, at least for Germans and other Europeans, more reminiscent of the “founder’s crash” (Gründerkrach) of 1873. Then, as now, an era of cheap credit had fueled a tech boom and then triggered a banking crisis. In those days, the startups were in railroads, electronics, and chemistry, but there were also a large number of financial startups rising with the tide. In both cases, the crisis was rooted in bad accounting rules that turned the financial system into a playground for gamblers."
Mar 16th 2023
EXTRACT: "Putin is desperate for a ceasefire, but he does not want to admit it. Chinese President Xi Jinping is in the same boat. But US President Joe Biden is unlikely to jump at this seeming opportunity to negotiate a ceasefire, because he has pledged that the US will not negotiate behind Zelensky’s back. -- The countries of the former Soviet empire, eager to assert their independence, can hardly wait for the Russian army to be crushed in Ukraine. At that point, Putin’s dream of a renewed Russian empire will disintegrate and cease to pose a threat to Europe. -- The defeat of Russian imperialism will have far-reaching consequences for the rest of the world. It will bring huge relief to open societies and create tremendous problems for closed ones."
Mar 15th 2023
EXTRACT: "Fifty years ago, a war broke out in the Middle East which resulted in a global oil embargo.... " ---- " Many historical accounts suggest the decade of global inflation and recession that characterises the 1970s stemmed from this “oil shock”. But this narrative is misleading – and half a century later, in the midst of strikingly similar global conditions, needs revisiting." ----- "In early 2023, the global financial picture feels disconcertingly similar to 50 years ago. Inflation and the cost of living have both risen steeply, and a war and related energy supply problems have been widely labelled as a key reason for this pain." ---- "In their public statements, central bank leaders have blamed this on a long (and movable) list of factors – most prominently, Vladimir Putin’s decision to send Russian troops to fight against Ukrainian armed forces. Anything, indeed, but central bank policy." ---- "Yet as Figure 1 shows, inflation had already been increasing in the US and Europe long before Putin gave the order to move his troops across the border – indeed, as far back as 2020."
Mar 7th 2023
EXTRACT: "The United States is in the midst of a book-banning frenzy. According to PEN America, 1,648 books were prohibited in public schools across the country between July 2021 and June 2022. That number is expected to increase this year as conservative politicians and organizations step up efforts to censor works dealing with sexual and racial identity."
Feb 28th 2023
EXTRACT: "As was the case before World War I, it is tempting to minimize the risk of a major conflict. After all, today’s globalized, interconnected world has too much at stake to risk a seismic unraveling. That argument is painfully familiar. It is the same one made in the early twentieth century, when the first wave of globalization was at its peak. It seemed compelling to many right up to June 28, 1914."
Feb 19th 2023
EXTRACT: "Another front has opened in the global rise of populist authoritarianism. With their efforts to weaken Israel’s independent judiciary, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and his corrupt coalition of Messianic fascists and ultra-Orthodox allies are determined to translate their anti-democratic rhetoric into authoritarian policy."
Feb 17th 2023
EXTRACT: "One year on from the start of a military operation that Moscow was expected to win easily, there are increasing signs of anger, frustration and resistance from ordinary Russian soldiers. These are important reminders that these men are not mindless pawns who will do Putin’s bidding under any circumstances."
Feb 16th 2023
EXTRACT: "Over the past few days, more details have emerged about the alleged Russian plot in Moldova. Apparently, well-trained and well-equipped foreign agents were meant to infiltrate the ongoing protests, then instigate and carry out violent attacks against state institutions, take hostages and replace the current government. This may seem far-fetched, but is it? Yesterday, Moldova denied entry to Serbian soccer fans who had planned to support their team, FK Partizan Belgrade, in a Europa Conference League match against the Transnistrian side Sheriff Tiraspol. ---- " ..... there is a history of Serbian football hooligans being involved in paramilitary activities, including war crimes committed by the notorious Arkan Tigers during the war in Bosnia in the early 1990s. Moreover, Russia attempted to overthrow the Montenegrin government in October 2016, just ahead of the country’s Nato accession the following year, in a plot eerily prescient of what was allegedly planned recently in Moldova.
Feb 14th 2023
EXTRACT: "As the British novelist L.P. Hartley once wrote, the past is “a foreign country: they do things differently there.” Alas, this does not mean that we necessarily do things better now. But to understand that lesson, we have to follow Santayana’s advice, and study history very carefully.."
Feb 7th 2023
EXTRACT: "Others who have left Russia include tens of thousands of the country’s excellent computer scientists, whom the armament industry desperately needs. In fact, so many Russians have emigrated to neighboring countries that Armenia expects its 2022 GDP growth to come in at a whopping 13%. Unlike oil fields, this is capital that Putin cannot nationalize or seize."
Feb 6th 2023
EXTRACTS: "Under these circumstances, Ukraine’s allies are right to scale up their military assistance, including by providing battle tanks. The goal is for Ukraine to prevail against its aggressor. But we cannot wish for that end without giving Ukraine the means to achieve it. The alternative is a prolonged war of attrition, leading to more deaths in Ukraine, greater insecurity for Europe, and continued suffering around the world (owing to Russia’s weaponization of energy and food supplies)." ---- "And make no mistake: the sanctions are working. Russian oil is selling at a $40 discount to Brent, and its daily energy revenues are expected to fall from around €800 million to €500 million after our latest measures kick in this month. The war is costing the Kremlin dearly, and these costs will only rise the longer it lasts."
Feb 6th 2023
EXTRACTS: "Brezhnev, in power from 1964 to 1982, signed the 1975 Helsinki Accords, together with the United States, Canada, and most of Europe. Eager for formal recognition of its borders at the time, the USSR under Brezhnev, together with its satellite states in Central and Eastern Europe, underestimated the potential impact of the Accords. That is probably why it agreed to include commitments to respect human rights, including freedom of information and movement, in the agreement’s Final Act." --- "Putin’s regime is turning its back on the legacy of Soviet dissent. Worse, it is replicating the despotic practices of Brezhnev and Soviet totalitarianism. If it continues on this path, it risks ending up in the same place."
Feb 5th 2023
EXTRACT: "....when countries like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and, above all, China flagrantly violate their citizens’ human rights, liberal democracies must unite to constrain their behavior. Ultimately, it is up to those of us who believe in the universality of human rights to expose crimes against humanity and to uphold liberal-democratic values in the face of authoritarian threats" --- "....liberal democracies have a shared responsibility to support the Ukrainians fighting to defend their homeland and to protect their rights to self-determination and statehood in the face of Russian aggression."
Jan 14th 2023
EXTRACT: "On balance, then, the events in and around Soledar over the past week illustrate that no matter the outcome of the current fighting, this is not a turning point. It’s another strong indication that the war is likely going to be long and costly."
Jan 14th 2023
EXTRACTS: "Russian President Vladimir Putin has long regarded the collapse of the Soviet Union as a “geopolitical catastrophe.” The invasion of Ukraine, now approaching its one-year anniversary, could be seen as the culmination of his years-long quest to restore the Soviet empire. ..... "With Russia’s economy straining under Western sanctions, some of the country’s leading economists and mathematicians are advocating a return to the days of five-year plans and quantitative production targets." .... "The logical endpoint of a planned economy today is the same as it was then: mass expropriation. Stalin’s collectivization of Soviet agriculture in the late 1920s and early 1930s led to millions of deaths, and the post-communist 'shock therapy' of privatization resulted in the proliferation of 'raiders' and the creation of a new class of oligarchs. Now, enthralled by imperial nostalgia, Russia may be about to embark on a new violent wave of expropriation and redistribution."
Jan 11th 2023
EXTRACT: "These developments suggest that Indian economist Amartya Sen was correct when he famously argued in 1983 that famines are caused not only by a shortage of food but also by a lack of information and political accountability. For example, the Bengal famine of 1943, India’s worst, happened under imperial British rule. After India gained independence, the country’s free press and democratic government, while flawed, prevented similar catastrophes. Sen’s thesis has since been hailed as a ringing endorsement of democracy. While some critics have noted that elected governments can also cause considerable harm, including widespread hunger, Sen points out that no famine has 'ever taken place in a functioning democracy.' --- China’s system of one-party, and increasingly one-man, rule is couched in Communist or nationalist jargon, but is rooted in fascist theory. The German jurist Carl Schmitt, who justified Adolf Hitler’s right to wield total power, coined the term “decisionism” to describe a system in which the validity of policies and laws is not determined by their content but by an omnipotent leader’s will. In other words, Hitler’s will was the law."