Mar 18th 2017

Can Israel Fight A War On Three Fronts? A Nightmarish Scenario

by Alon Ben-Meir

A noted journalist and author, Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is professor of international relations and Middle East studies at the Center for Global Affairs at New York University. Ben-Meir holds a masters degree in philosophy and a doctorate in international relations from Oxford University. His exceptional knowledge and insight, the result of more than 20 years of direct involvement in foreign affairs, with a focus on the Middle East, has allowed Dr. Ben-Meir to offer a uniquely invaluable perspective on the nature of world terrorism, conflict resolution and international negotiations. Fluent in Arabic and Hebrew, Ben-Meir's frequent travels to the Middle East and meetings with highly placed officials and academics in many Middle Eastern countries including Egypt, Israel, Jordan, the Palestinian territories, Syria and Turkey provide him with an exceptionally nuanced level of awareness and insight into the developments surrounding breaking news. Ben-Meir often articulates

Although Prime Minister Netanyahu is known for his focus on the Palestinian and Iranian threats to Israel’s national security, in recent months he has increasingly sounded the alarm over Iran in particular rather than the Palestinians. As the defeat of ISIS in both Iraq and Syria is all but inevitable, Netanyahu’s main concern now is that Iran will insist on maintaining a strong foothold in Syria by establishing a significant military presence as recompense for its continuing support of the Assad regime throughout the civil war. This, of course, should not come as a surprise to Netanyahu or anyone else familiar with Iran’s ambitions to become the region’s hegemon, as it views Syria as the linchpin that will preserve its influence from the Gulf to the Mediterranean.

For Netanyahu, however, to put the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on the back burner is a terrible mistake. In fact, because of the increasing Iranian threat, Netanyahu should do everything in his power to negotiate a peace agreement with the Palestinians now in the context of a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace. In so doing, he will not only neutralize the Palestinian threat but potentially mitigate the Iranian menace at least to a certain degree; otherwise, he will simply continue to play into Iran’s hand.

Iran’s involvement in Syria is not new and precedes the civil war by several decades. What is new, however, is that Tehran is now determined to establish—in addition to Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon—a third front in Syria against Israel.

Israel’s high military command are particularly concerned about the possibility that once hostilities break out between Israel and Hamas, it could potentially be joined by Hezbollah (or vice versa), and Iran may decide to join the foray or instigate the hostilities in the first place and force Israel to fight on three fronts. This would also provide the Palestinians in the West Bank the opportunity to rise against the occupation.

In a speech at the Foreign Ministry commemorating the Israelis who were killed in the 1992 embassy bombing in Argentina (in which Iran was implicated), Netanyahu stated that “The regime in Tehran aspires to plant its flag atop the ruins of the free world. It continues to threaten to annihilate Israel.”

Although Netanyahu realizes that he cannot persuade the Trump administration to revoke the Iran nuclear deal, he wants to make certain that Washington remains attentive to Iran’s mischievous and destabilizing conduct in the region and continues to hold Iran accountable to its commitment to fully adhere to the deal.

In addition, Netanyahu wants to ensure that Washington understands the danger that emanates from Iran’s military presence in Syria by establishing a base not far from the city of Quneitra, only a few miles from the border of the Golan Heights. To that end, he also conferred with Russia’s President Putin, expressing in no uncertain terms that Israel will not tolerate such an outcome once ISIS is defeated.

It should be noted that while ISIS’ defeat is all but certain, by all military calculations it will take at least six months to bring about its demise. In the interim, Iran is systematically consolidating its presence in Syria by increasing its military hardware, including short- and medium-range rockets, with no objection from Assad, who views Iran’s continuing presence for the foreseeable future as pivotal to his hold on power.

Although Moscow and/or Washington may support Netanyahu’s position, neither can do much about it now as the war against ISIS continues with the participation of Iran. In addition, Tehran is carrying on with the transfer of an array of weapons to Hezbollah, including rockets. In spite of the fact that Israel has and continues to intercept and destroy many such weapons shipments, significant quantities still manage to reach their destination in Lebanon.

It is now estimated that between Hamas and Hezbollah, they have nearly 200,000 short- and medium-range rockets; many of them can reach any target in Israel from Metula in the north to Eilat in the southern tip. Together, they can rain more than a thousand rockets each day for nearly seven months.

Given the increasing tension between Israel and Hamas, and with Hezbollah, a major breakout of hostilities cannot be ruled out. Although Israel’s Defense Forces are not oblivious to such a possibility, they are faced with a nightmarish scenario regardless of how and when such a conflagration may occur.

Even though Israel’s air defense system is one of the most sophisticated in the world, Israel will still be unable to intercept all incoming rockets. Out of the thousand rockets Hamas and Hezbollah can fire daily, a few dozen could still land on many Israeli urban centers, causing hundreds of casualties and massive structural damage, especially in areas where shelters are either limited or do not exist.

In addition, businesses would be closed for weeks, supplies of food and medicine will become increasingly scarce, schools will be shut, and hospitals will be overwhelmed. Moreover, the military will be stretched, especially if Israel ends up invading Gaza and Lebanon while bombing Iranian installations in Syria, overpowering the Palestinian uprising, and protecting settlers in the West Bank.

To prevent such a nightmarish scenario, the Israeli government may feel that they are justified to conduct widespread bombing on all three fronts. Given the fact that much of Hezbollah and Hamas’ rockets are embedded in civilian communities, there will likely be tens of thousands of civilian casualties. Moreover, attacks against Israel by Iranian forces in Syria may well force Israel to bomb targets in Iran, focusing in the main on the country’s nuclear installations.

How the Arab world, Europe, the US, and Russia will react is hard to predict. One thing, however, is clear: much of the Middle East will be on fire and it will be hard to fathom how perilous the consequences will be.

Yes, Israel will technically win the war, but it will be the most devastating victory in the annals of warfare in modern times.

This may seem like an unlikely scenario, but the probability of it is increasing every day. If Netanyahu is truly concerned about Iran establishing a permanent military base in Syria from which it can seriously threaten Israel’s national security as he professes, he cannot rule out such a terrifying possibility.

His seriousness about the Iranian threat is now tested by his action or inaction on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. I maintain that there is no better time to look very carefully at the two state-solution to be preceded by a process of reconciliation, in the context of a comprehensive Israeli-Arab peace, especially now that the Arab states share his concerns about the Iranian threat.

More than any time before, the Arab states led by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Morocco, and Qatar are in a position to exert significant influence over the Palestinian Authority and Hamas to enter into serious negotiations, provided that Israel shows a genuine appetite for real peace.

Netanyahu and some of his recalcitrant ministers can demonstrate that by first stating that Israel has no intentions of annexing more Palestinian territories, and second by declaring a moratorium on the expansion of settlements for at least one year.

If Netanyahu’s coalition partners do not support such an initiative, he should have the courage to fire them and establish a new government with the left and center parties that support a negotiated peace with the Palestinians.

Netanyahu has only paid lip service to the idea of a Palestinian state, but if Israel’s very existence is on the line because of the Iranian threat as he persistently asserts, he has the capacity and public support to pursue that objective. He has a propitious opportunity to forge peace and usher in a more promising and secure future that Jews in and outside Israel are yearning for.

Browse articles by author

More Current Affairs

Affluence is killing the planet, warn scientists
by Thomas Wiedmann, Julia K. Steinberger and Manfred Lenzen
Jun 25th 2020
EXTRACT: "The facts are clear: the wealthiest 0.54%, about 40 million people, are responsible for 14% of lifestyle-related greenhouse gas emissions, while the bottom 50% of income earners, almost 4 billion people, only emit around 10%. The world’s top 10% income earners are responsible for at least 25% and up to 43% of our environmental impact. Most people living in developed countries would fit into this category, meaning you don’t have to consider yourself rich in order to be globally affluent. Even many poorer people in wealthy countries have a disproportionately large and unsustainable resource footprint compared to the global average."
The Main Street Manifesto 
by Nouriel Roubini
Jun 24th 2020
EXTRACT: "To be sure, the American Dream was always more aspiration than reality. Economic, social, and intergenerational mobility have always fallen short of what the myth of the self-made man or woman would lead one to expect. But with social mobility now declining as inequality rises, today’s young people are right to be angry."
The Messiah of Mar-a-Lago
by Shlomo Ben Ami
Jun 19th 2020
EXTRACT: "There is only one way to repair America’s reputation, regain the trust of allies, and ensure that the US can act as an effective counterweight to China: address the root causes of the cracks that Trump’s disastrous presidency has exposed and widened. This is in line with the vision advanced in 2011 by two military strategists, Captain Wayne Porter and Colonel Mark Mykleby, using the pseudonym “Mr. Y.” Porter and Mykleby argued that national security depends not only on the capacity to respond to threats from foreign powers, but also – and perhaps more important – on the “application of credible influence and strength.” That influence, in turn, depends on America’s success in providing a “pathway of promise” for US citizens – and a model for the world."
The Republicans’ Treasonous Betrayal Of The American People
by Alon Ben-Meier
Jun 14th 2020
EXTRACT: "The most critical question then is not how far Trump will go to promote his treasonous agenda, but for how long Republican leaders will silently accept and subserviently enable Trump to destroy the basic moral tenets and values on which this Union was founded, and which they swore to uphold and protect...............Of course, shame on us if we continue to be surprised by Republicans’ continuing silence, because as we all know, even when presented with overwhelming evidence that Trump committed crimes against the American people, Trump’s Republican stooges in the Senate exonerated him following impeachment almost unanimously...................The Republican leadership, to be sure, has made its bed. It has committed moral suicide. History will judge them harshly for their treason and betrayal of the nation, including all of those who have lived and died throughout our history to foster and protect our safety, integrity, and freedom."
America’s Calamity 
by Elizabeth Drew
Jun 9th 2020
EXTRACT: " Governments can do nothing about the quotidian offenses of living as a black person in America – the empty taxis that refuse to stop, being mistaken for employees in supermarkets, the myriad intentional and unintentional insults. Many now in the streets won’t be satisfied unless the result of this national spasm is improved schools, health care, and job opportunities for minorities – a fair shake for black people. What will happen when America once again falls short of honoring its professed values?."
For Beijing, Rewriting the Rules is an Art Form
by Daniel Wagner
Jun 8th 2020
EXTRACT: "It should be apparent to most observers of international relations that the Chinese government wants the world to play by its own set of rules. Beijing appears to believe that China’s rise and its assumption of global leadership positions are an inevitable extension of earlier periods in its history, when it was the world’s most powerful country. This is often at odds with the global norms that have been established – with China’s participation, it is worth adding – since the 1940s. While this is clearly the Chinese century, few outside of China would agree that Beijing’s global leadership is either inevitable or necessarily desired – certainly not on the Chinese government’s terms."
Another Long, Hot Summer in America 
by Ian Buruma
Jun 4th 2020
EXTRACT: "Many Americans are clearly horrified by their president’s crass and incendiary words. But will their disapproval be offset by anxiety about violent social unrest? Will age-old racial prejudices, often unspoken, or even acknowledged, still make them vote for the false security of a coarse white bully?  Much will depend on how hot this summer gets. If people think rationally in November, it is hard to imagine that enough of them would vote to keep this appalling administration in power for another four years. But fear is reason’s worst enemy."
America’s Mis-Police State 
by Jeffrey Sommers
Jun 2nd 2020
EXTRACT: "For starters, many Americans have accepted that they live in a winner-takes-all society of deepening inequality. While the wealth and incomes of those at the very top continue to grow, tens of millions of Americans struggle to afford health care, childcare, and other basic goods. This story has been told many times over. But what often goes unremarked is that the responsibility for managing the social costs of this system has been offloaded onto the police."
How to understand Obamagate – Donald Trump's latest conspiracy theory
by Marc Tuters and Peter Knight
May 27th 2020
EXTRACT: "Obamagate is the latest conspiracy theory to be pushed by US president, Donald Trump. It started on the morning of May 10, when Trump retweeted the word “OBAMAGATE!” By the next day, the Obamagate hashtag had accrued over two million tweets and another four million by the end of the week. Trump has repeatedly reused the slogan on his Twitter feed since and it has been promoted by right-wing influencers including Glenn Beck, Sean Hannity and many others....You are not alone if you’re confused by what Obamagate actually is or why Trump is tweeting about it."
Our Post-Covid-19 Future is Already Here
by Daniel Wagner
May 23rd 2020
EXTRACT: "Not all aspects of our near and medium-term future can be foreseen at this juncture of the Covid-19 pandemic, but we now know enough to make some hypotheses about what is likely to change, based on what has already changed. The future is sure to look very different than it did before this decade began, regardless of whether a vaccine is found. If a vaccine is found, it is unlikely to be tested, approved, manufactured, and efficiently distributed to the world’s population of nearly 8 billion people for years. Bearing in mind that there is no vaccine for any coronavirus, what is likelier is that the world will be living with Covid-19 as a part of our ecosystem for many years to come – possibly permanently. That means that our new normal is probably already here."
Europe’s Hamiltonian Moment 
by Anatole Kaletsky
May 21st 2020
EXTRACT: "LONDON – The new Franco-German proposal for a €500 billion ($547 billion) European recovery fund could turn out to be the most important historic consequence of the coronavirus. It is even conceivable that the deal struck between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron might one day be remembered as the European Union’s “Hamiltonian moment,” comparable to the 1790 agreement between Alexander Hamilton and Thomas Jefferson on public borrowing, which helped to turn the United States, a confederation with little central government, into a genuine political federation."
The Fabulist 
by Elizabeth Drew
May 19th 2020
EXTRACT: "In April 2011, Donald Trump, then considering a run for the presidency the following year, said that he had sent investigators to Hawaii to check out rumors that President Barack Obama wasn’t born there, but in Kenya, which would disqualify him for the presidency. His investigators, Trump declared, “cannot believe what they’re finding.” I can find no record of Trump being challenged on this outlandish claim at the time. In the fall of 2016, Trump, now the Republican presidential nominee, was convinced by his staff that he had to abandon this “birther” nonsense. He did so reluctantly, charging – also with no evidence – that such rumors had actually been initiated by his opponent, Hillary Clinton. There, in a nutshell, is Trump’s modus operandi: he’s not just a liar but a fabulist, seemingly unconcerned with whether his fictions will be exposed. If they are, the world simply moves on as he invents fresh distractions."
The Fable of the Chinese Whistleblower 
by Stephen S. Roach and Weijian Shan 
May 19th 2020
EXTRACT: "Li, a doctor, was purportedly silenced and chastised by Chinese officials for warning on December 30, 2019, about a new virus in the Wuhan hospital where he worked. When it became evident that he was on to something serious – so serious, in fact, that it ultimately killed him – the Chinese government changed its tune and celebrated Li’s bravery. If only that had happened sooner, the argument goes, the world would have avoided this horrific pandemic.................... But that’s not what happened."
Top 5 Reasons Trump’s West Wing May be Emerging as a Coronavirus Epicenter
by Juan Cole
May 9th 2020
EXTRACT: "Jana Winter and Hunter Walker at Yahoo News broke the story that 11 Secret Service agents have tested positive for the coronavirus. Likely some of them served in the West Wing. This week it was revealed at that a US military valet who brought Trump food came down with the virus, sending Trump into a “lava level” rage. Two aides to Vice President Mike Pence have tested positive. Some observers are afraid that the virus is circulating in the West Wing itself."
Covid-19 and China’s Bat Virus Research
by Daniel Wagner
May 6th 2020
EXTRACT: "There has been much debate around the world about the source of the COVID-19 pandemic, ranging from a laboratory to Wuhan’s seafood market to some other form of animal-to-human transmission. While there is no proof (yet) that the virus may have been inadvertently released from one of the two biological research laboratories located at Wuhan, there is evidence that viral release has occurred in the past, and a host of additional data that point to a laboratory connection. "
The Case for Deeply Negative Interest Rates 
by Kenneth Rogoff
May 4th 2020
EXTRACT: "A better bet is that nothing will be the same. Wealth will be destroyed on a catastrophic scale, and policymakers will need to find a way to ensure that, at least in some cases, creditors take part of the hit, a process that will play out over years of negotiation and litigation. For bankruptcy lawyers and lobbyists, it will be a bonanza, part of which will come from pressing taxpayers to honor bailout guarantees. Such a scenario would be an unholy mess."
The Virus that Changed the World 
by Joschka Fischer
Apr 29th 2020
EXTRACT: "We need the twenty-first century’s two superpowers, America and China, to set the example, by burying their rivalry and uniting all of humankind around a collective response to the current crisis, and to those that await us. As COVID-19 has taught us, the old international system can no longer guarantee humankind’s safety and security. We cannot afford to be taught that lesson twice."
Trump’s Cruelest Month 
by Elizabeth Drew
Apr 29th 2020
EXTRACT: "It should come as no surprise that Trump has abused his power in orchestrating the federal response to the pandemic. For example, he made sure that Colorado received 100 much-needed ventilators, and made sure that Colorado voters knew it, in order to help re-elect troubled incumbent Republican senator Cory Gardner.  More alarming, Trump effectively threatened to wage germ warfare against US Postal Service workers by denying them congressionally approved virus-mitigation aid unless the USPS quadrupled rates on packages. Trump’s actual target was Jeff Bezos, the CEO of Amazon and owner of The Washington Post."
The Coming Greater Depression of the 2020s 
by Nouriel Roubini
Apr 28th 2020
EXTRACT: "These ten risks, already looming large before COVID-19 struck, now threaten to fuel a perfect storm that sweeps the entire global economy into a decade of despair. By the 2030s, technology and more competent political leadership may be able to reduce, resolve, or minimize many of these problems, giving rise to a more inclusive, cooperative, and stable international order. But any happy ending assumes that we find a way to survive the coming Greater Depression."
Monetary Finance Is Here 
by Aidar Turner
Apr 26th 2020
EXTRACT: "In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the US Federal Reserve will buy unlimited quantities of Treasury bonds, the Bank of England will purchase £200 billion ($250 billion) of gilts, and the European Central Bank up to €750 billion ($815 billion) of eurozone bonds. Almost certainly, central banks will end up providing monetary finance to fund fiscal deficits. The only question is whether they should make that explicit."