Nov 3rd 2010

“Change we can believe in”

by Alon Ben-Meir

 

Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a retired professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He taught courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies for over 20 years.

With the peace process at a standstill, President Obama must shake up the current efforts, and his Mideast peace team, in order to get the Israelis and Palestinians back on track toward a peaceful resolution of their conflict. The Obama White House has invested an enormous amount of political capital to advance Middle East peace since taking office, yet has little to show for it. Even so, the United States cannot abandon its efforts and leave Israel and the Palestinians to their own devices. It is therefore time to recognize that the current U.S. strategy is not working-significant changes are needed if there is to maintain any hope for reaching a breakthrough in the coming year.

The new strategy must begin with President Obama's visit to Israel after the midterm election. Rightly or wrongly, Obama's decision not to visit Israel following his June 2009 Cairo speech and other trips to region was interpreted as a slight to Israel. This month, the President will make his third official overseas visit as President to four Asian countries, including a Muslim majority country, Indonesia, once again skipping Israel and sending the message to the Israeli public that he is uninterested in engaging the Israelis directly. Because of President Obama's long overdue visit to Israel, the Israeli public is becoming increasingly more skeptical of the President and his administration. Although the majority of Israelis support a two-state solution, the public remains passive and acutely cynical with regard to the current peace efforts. This relatively silent majority will only become aroused in support of the peace process if they understand what is at stake, and why it is in Israel and the United States' best interest to achieve peace now. The Israeli public needs to hear it directly from the President of the United States. President Obama must connect with ordinary Israelis and forcefully deliver the message that while America's commitment to Israel's national security is unequivocal and unconditional, only sustainable peace offers Israel ultimate security. A personal appearance by President Obama before the Israeli Parliament would have a decisive impact on Israel's public opinion and on his own personal standing and credibility in the Israelis' eyes. The President needs to explain that America and Israel are in this together, and that the U.S. will stand with Israel shoulder-to-shoulder and at all times to confront any potential threat from any direction. What the President needs is a game changer, and only when the Israeli public subscribes to the peace process with confidence and a belief that peace can be achieved with security, will they raise their voice in support of peace "now."

During Netanyahu's visit to the U.S. in July he said to President Obama in the Oval Office: "You know, I've been coming here a lot, it's about time you and the First Lady come to Israel, sir." "I'm ready," was Obama's response. "We look forward to it. Thank you." Whether or not Netanyahu wishes for the President to visit Israel at this juncture, President Obama has been invited. He should, as soon as possible, announce his readiness to visit Israel because there may not be a better time to do so if he wants to seriously impact the peace process.

For President Obama to execute a new strategy, he requires a new team. Special Envoy George Mitchell is overrated as a skilled negotiator, and although he has a clear understanding of the Arab-Israeli conflict, he has failed to advance more compelling scenarios that deal with the psychological and emotional perspectives of the conflicting parties-the settlement debacle offers a case in point. In an effort to deflect criticism of the failing peace efforts, Mitchell has noted on several occasions that in his experience in Northern Ireland, he had "700 days of failure, and only one day of success." He will soon reach that 700-day mark, and there is still no sign of progress on the horizon. Meanwhile, although Dennis Ross has reportedly been playing a more assertive role in the White House's peace efforts, he is an old hat, and does not have the trust of the Palestinians. Ross has little to show for his years of intimate involvement in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.

The recent offer by the United States to provide security guarantees for a 60-day extension of Israel's settlement moratorium exemplifies how the President's Mideast team has failed. The United States' commitment to Israel's security should not be a bargaining chip to advance the negotiation process. Even though Netanyahu is reportedly still entertaining the offer, to make such an offer touches on the most sensitive issue for Israelis and suggests that Israel's security is negotiable or could be enhanced by additional security guarantees from the U.S. and military hardware. This is exactly the wrong message to send to the Israelis, and it is high time to get the message right that Israel's national security will never become a part of the negotiating mix.

Both Mitchell and Ross should resign and be replaced by an envoy that will stay in the region and work daily with both sides so that he/she cannot be ignored. One of the keys to recently retired Lt. Gen. Keith Dayton's success as the United States Security Coordinator charged with training the Palestinian security services in the West Bank was that he lived in the region and spent each day earning the trust of Israelis and Palestinians on the ground. This same principle should now apply to an envoy tasked with advancing peace talks. What is needed is someone who is trusted by both sides, knows the issues intimately, enjoys a solid mandate and provides a blunt no-nonsense approach to moving the talks ahead.

With a new team in place, the Obama administration must not allow Israeli settlements to remain the foremost obstacle impeding progress. The White House made the mistake of making a settlement freeze a precondition for negotiations without taking into consideration that Netanyahu might reject such a freeze, and without a 'Plan B' in the event that he would do so. The Palestinians latched onto the position of the United States and now the process-yet again-is stuck over the issue. To move forward, the U.S. must change the dynamics completely by persuading the Palestinians to let go of the issue of the freeze for now, in order to focus on something larger and more important to the Palestinians-a border agreement. Netanyahu continues to say he would be willing to discuss all issues with the goal of reaching a two state solution. The Palestinians, with the support of the United States and the Arab League in particular, should take him up on the offer. In doing so, the issue of borders should be the new launching point, with a goal to resolve the issue within 6 months. In addition, any incremental agreement is reached; including borders, the United States should institute new rules of engagement: any agreements that are established in the negotiations should be deposited with the United States. Too much time has been wasted determining the point of departure for the negotiations. The United States' depositing agreements would ensure that should talks breakdown, future negotiations could start where this effort left off.

The United States' stakes in the Middle East are extremely high, and Washington cannot play a meaningful leadership role and lose what is left of its credibility in the region without some kind of solution to the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. For this reason, should nothing move forward, the U.S. must prepare a peace plan of its own. Although the Netanyahu government is on record opposing any plan imposed from the outside-including one from the United States-by indicating that the US is preparing to go that route should it become necessary, will send a clear message about the seriousness and the urgency the US attaches to solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Furthermore, the knowledge that such a plan is in the making will put the Netanyahu government on notice that it must sooner than later change course. That said, in preparing the plan, the Obama administration needs also to communicate to the Israelis that although an Israeli-Palestinian peace serves America's strategic interest in the region, any peace plan will be consistent with Israel's legitimate security concerns and requirements. The contours of an agreement are already largely known. Any plan would naturally take into consideration the numerous negotiation efforts of the past, and include areas of general agreement between Israel and the Palestinians.

Without negotiations toward a two-state solution, the Palestinians are already exploring the possibility of gaining international recognition for the unilateral declaration of a state along the 1967 borders through various international forums, including the United Nations Security Council. As stated by French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner's recent comments, "one cannot rule out in principle the Security Council option." Based on current international sentiments, the Palestinians are likely to gain broad support for such a move in the United Nations General Assembly. Even though a Resolution in the UNGA in favor of creating a Palestinian state is not binding, it would have a tremendous psychological effect and may well pave the way to a similar resolution in the UNSC. Should the peace process continue to dissolve and this U.N. campaign materialize, the United States will be forced into a no-win situation-if the Obama administration were to veto such a resolution in the Security Council, it would enrage the Arab world; if it were to pass it, it would infuriate Israel. The U.S. also cannot abstain and absolve itself from influence over the peace process. Moreover, the United States voted in favor of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1850 in December 2008, which called for a two-state solution and support for the "Palestinian institution-building program in preparation for statehood which is being feverishly implemented in the West Bank on the basis of Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Fayyad's plans." Can the U.S. go against statehood now? To avoid such a scenario, the U.S. needs to get negotiations back on track-and soon.

Skeptics may argue that the Mitchell team needs more time, that a U.S. plan-even as a last resort-will undoubtedly fall flat, or that the U.S. should give up and stop its efforts altogether, particularly if the President emerges from the midterm elections in a significantly weaker political position which is more than likely. But the Obama administration cannot give up under any circumstances. America's strategic interests throughout the Middle East are incalculable, its credibility across the globe-and especially in the Arab and Muslim world and in Israel-is now at stake. A new strategy, a new message and a new team are sorely needed. President Obama must create a new dynamic moving forward that will demonstrate the kind of leadership and resolve that is necessary to end this festering malaise.

President Obama was elected with a promise to deliver "change we can believe in." His election raised expectations-perhaps too high-both in the United States and in the Middle East. Thus far he has achieved very little. However, he still has an opportunity to be a transformative leader who can deliver peace and security in the Middle East. To do so he must now deliver on his promise of change.

Next: Who might be the best Presidential Envoy to the Arab-Israeli peace negotiations?

*A similar version of this article was published by The Jerusalem Post on October 29th, and can be accessed at http://www.jpost.com/Magazine/Features/Article.aspx?id=193070

Browse articles by author

More Current Affairs

Jun 10th 2025
EXTRACT: "The MAGA world’s loathing of diversity and inclusion programs owes something to this type of thinking, as does the goal of purging universities of “anti-American” elements. The animus against foreign students, who bring enormous economic and cultural benefits to US higher education, is not only xenophobic, but hugely damaging to American soft power."
Nov 24th 2024
Extracts: "We all think, speak, and write within certain intellectual frameworks that we largely take for granted. But, eventually, the passage of time renders familiar categories and ideas obsolete. For example, who still talks about the “Soviet Union” today, apart from historians?" ------- "Trump won decisively despite his contempt for democratic institutions, his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, and his subsequent 34-count felony conviction. Though voters know about his chaotic approach to governance, his habitual mendacity, and his sinister immigration policies, he won every swing state. Even with full knowledge of who Trump is, more Americans voted for him than for Kamala Harris. We must not mince words: liberal democracy in the US has suffered a lethal blow. It will be under increasing pressure on both sides of the Atlantic, and there is no guarantee that it will survive. After all, can there be any future for the liberal West without the US as its leader? I believe the answer is no." ----- "If Europe fails to come together at this moment of tumultuous change, it will not get a second chance. Its only option is to become a military power capable of protecting its interests and securing peace and order on the world stage. The alternative is fragmentation, impotence, and irrelevance."
Nov 24th 2024
EXTRACTS: "When the US presidential election was called for Donald Trump, the yield on ten-year US government bonds increased from 4.3% to 4.4%, and the 30-year-bond yield rose from 4.5% to 4.6%, with both remaining at those levels ten days later." ----- " Clearly, investors expect the next Trump administration to produce higher government budget deficits and more debt. It is not difficult to see why. During Trump’s first term in office, he added $8 trillion to the national debt – all previous presidents combined had accumulated $20 trillion – despite having promised to run budget surpluses so large that they would eliminate the national debt within two terms." ----- "Supporters often say that a businessman like Trump or Musk will know how to put America’s fiscal house in order. But the smart money says they have no idea what they are doing."
Nov 13th 2024
EXTRACT: "For 2,300 years, at least since Plato’s Republic, philosophers have known how demagogues and aspiring tyrants win democratic elections. The process is straightforward, and we have now just watched it play out." ........ "As Jean-Jacques Rousseau argued, democracy is at its most vulnerable when inequality in a society has become entrenched and grown too glaring." ..... "From everything Trump has said and done during this campaign and in his first term, we can expect Plato to be vindicated once again. The Republican Party’s domination of all branches of government would render the US a one-party state. The future may offer occasional opportunities for others to vie for power, but whatever political contests lie ahead most likely will not qualify as free and fair elections."
Nov 3rd 2024
EXTRACT: "The likelihood of escalation in the coming weeks and months means that there will be economic and financial risks to manage. A large-enough Israeli strike on Iran could severely disrupt energy production and exports from the Gulf. If Iran gets desperate, it could try to mine the Gulf and block the Strait of Hormuz, while also striking Saudi oil facilities. In this scenario, the world would experience stagflationary shocks similar to those that followed the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the 1979 Iranian revolution."
Oct 9th 2024
EXTRACT: "The continuing cycles of violence can easily spiral out of control, precipitating a wider war involving nuclear powers. Moreover, Netanyahu’s goal of 'total victory' against an ideological movement cannot be achieved by military means alone." ..... "So long as both sides seek to inflict maximum damage on the other to right past wrongs, the violence will not end. Netanyahu may think that total victory is in sight, now that Hezbollah is badly damaged and Gaza reduced to rubble, but that is an illusion. All he has done is create more enemies who will want to restore their honor by killing in a war without end."
Oct 9th 2024
EXTRACTS: "Nasrallah was on a mission to destroy Israel. It was a mantle he had taken up from countless other Arab leaders, from Haj Amin al-Husseini, the grand mufti of Jerusalem who met with Adolf Hitler in 1941 to discuss the destruction of the Jews, to Azzam Pasha, the secretary-general of the Arab League who described the Arab invasion of the then-nascent Israel in 1948 as a 'war of annihilation'. Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser – an icon of pan-Arabism in the 1950s and 1960s – pledged more than once to 'destroy Israel'. Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein and the Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, who founded Fatah, nurtured their own dreams of liquidating the Jewish state." ...... "Alas, Israelis have built their own dangerous dream palace of 'total victory', erected on a foundation of nationalist fervor, religious messianism, and political intransigence. There is a scenario in which Israel’s military exploits change the region for the better. Unfortunately, far from being the standard-bearer for some enlightened political vision, Israel’s current government is committed to fighting a war on all fronts, with no view toward any political future that Israel’s neighbors could possibly accept."
Oct 8th 2024
EXTRACT: "But in the real world, slain leaders are replaced. Those who bury their dead do not forget or forgive, and those who have felt the punishment of arms do not forego weapons but embrace them. So it seems unlikely that’s how the story will end. Sadly, it’s far more likely it will never end."
Oct 3rd 2024
EXTRACT: ".....,Russia will probably spend about $190 billion, or 10% of GDP, on the war this year, and that figure presumably represents the peak, given the constraints imposed by Western financial sanctions. Whenever Russia can no longer finance a budget deficit, it will have to cut public expenditures, and its non-military outlays have already been pared to the bone."
Sep 12th 2024
EXTRACT: "Throughout recorded history, crises and tragedies have inevitably spurred apocalyptic interpretations that seek to imbue temporal catastrophes with some divine or redemptive meaning. One can see this in the doctrines of the major monotheistic religions, and even in modern totalitarian ideologies, such as communism and Nazism. One way or another, humans appear inclined to believe that, without Satan, there is no redeemer. To understand just how dangerous this logic can be, look no further than Gaza, where a tragedy of Biblical proportions is fueling the messianic hallucinations of Israel, Hamas, and American Christian evangelicals alike."
Aug 7th 2024
EXTRACT: "China knows that the war has had catastrophic consequences for both Russia and Ukraine. Estimates indicate that Putin’s conflict in Ukraine could cost Russia US$1.3 trillion (£1.0 trillion) and at least 315,000 in troop casualties. So, win or lose, the post-war damage to Russia would be immense. This is bad news for China. Not only will it have a weakened ally, but the west could then have a free hand to consolidate its resources in dealing with the 'Chinese threat'."
Jul 27th 2024
EXTRACT: "......, regardless of the folly of political violence, the attempt on Trump’s life was futile inasmuch as ridding America, and the world, of Trump, would by no means rid us of Trumpism, which was and remains a symptom, and not the root cause, of this country’s moral and epistemic decline. How else could so many millions of Americans support this man? No one can claim that they do not know what he stands for (insofar as he stands for anything other than himself) or what his intentions are: he has made it very clear that his second administration will be not only authoritarian, but fascist in rhetoric and deed.
Jul 17th 2024
EXTRACTS: "Iran unveiled a digital clock counting down the days to the destruction of Israel in 2040. The display, located in Tehran’s Palestine Square, embodies the Islamic Republic’s long-held commitment to annihilating the Jewish state. Some view this promise as a mere rhetorical exercise...." ----- "From Adolf Hitler to Vladimir Putin and even Osama bin Laden, history has taught us to take threats of ideologically inspired attacks at face value. " ---- "......., the key enabler of Iran’s war of attrition is, in fact, Israel’s own government. Netanyahu’s unrealistic goal of achieving 'a complete victory' in Gaza serves Iran’s strategy of miring Israel in an inconclusive conflict while orchestrating a long-term plan to destroy the Jewish state." ----- "It turns out that the only truly irrational, trigger-happy fanatics in this lethal equation are Netanyahu and his theo-fascist allies, who are determined to engage in an apocalyptic war in Gaza and Lebanon." ---- "These messianic hallucinators have a willing collaborator in Netanyahu. Together, they are doing more to annihilate the Jewish national project than Iran could ever hope to achieve on its own."
Jul 16th 2024
EXTRACTS: "In her dissenting opinion in Trump v. United States, Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor declared that with the majority’s ruling, 'the President is now a king above the law'. In this, she is wrong: the majority opinion has given the US president far more power than English kings had at the time of the American Revolution." ---- "In June 1686, 11 of the 12 hand-picked justices ruled in favor of the king. Echoing the king’s own solicitor, Sir Thomas Powys, the Lord Chief Justice George Jeffreys contended that if the king did not have leeway above the law, 'the preservation of the government' might be in jeopardy." ---- "In 1689, the English people roundly rejected such reasoning and asserted that their kings would thereafter be subject to the law. They set a precedent by removing James II from office. The Supreme Court’s decision goes beyond threatening more than two centuries of American jurisprudence; it overturns four centuries of Anglo-American jurisprudence. The Roberts majority did not give the president the power of an English king; it gave the president power that an English king could only covet."
Jul 4th 2024
EXTRACT: "Most American voters who believe that Trump is the best defender of democracy are not fascists, much less communists. The very thought would horrify them. But they almost surely have a strong opinion on who constitutes the true American people: God-fearing, hard-working, and most probably white. And they worry that these ordinary Americans are being displaced by illegal immigrants, and that their way of life is being threatened by new ideas about gender, race, and sexuality emerging from elite universities. Trump is stoking these fears and exaggerating these threats. His line that the US courts are attacking not only him, but every right-thinking American is horribly effective. Since he is heard as the true voice of the people, he is the purest democrat. As a result, liberal democracy might not withstand another four years of his rule."
Jul 3rd 2024
EXTRACT: "....the debate showed all too clearly that he is suffering cognitive decline and cannot possibly serve as a competent president for another four years. If Biden is true to his word, and stopping Trump from regaining the presidency is his overriding goal, he needs to announce that at the Democratic Convention in August, he will release his delegates from their obligation to vote for him, and instead ask them to vote for the candidate with the best chance of defeating Trump."
Jul 3rd 2024
EXTRACTS: "Both Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Sonia Sotomayor of the United States Supreme Court have just announced grand opinions trying to resolve the fundamental constitutional issues raised by former President Donald Trump’s claim to absolute immunity" ---- "According to Sotomayor, who wrote for the three dissenting justices, Roberts’ sweeping grant of immunity has 'no firm grounding in constitutional text, history, or precedent.' ” ----- "For what it’s worth, I think that Sotomayor is right and Roberts is wrong." ----"But for now, it is much more important to consider the objection raised by Justice Amy Coney Barrett to both Roberts’ constitutional glorification of the presidency and Sotomayor’s devastating critique of Roberts’ majority opinion." ---- "Barrett is right to ask why Roberts and Sotomayor did not join her in adopting the problem-solving approach that they have repeatedly endorsed in many other contexts." ---- "Roberts took the path that not only betrayed Founding principles, as Sotomayor argued, but also betrayed the very principles to which he has dedicated his entire career. "
Jul 1st 2024
EXTRACTS: "Netanyahu’s disdainful criticism of Biden. Netanyahu knows how indispensable the US is to Israel, as no country has provided Israel with more financial, military, and political support than the US. And no American president has ever been more supportive and committed to Israel's security than President Biden. But then, leave it to the most loathsome Netanyahu, who dares to criticize the president for suspending the shipment specifically of 2,000-pound bombs to continue with his devastating bombardment of Rafah that could indiscriminately kill thousands of innocent civilians." ---- "All Israelis who care about their country’s future must rise and demand the immediate resignation of this corrupt and brazen creature who inflicted untold damage on the only Jewish state, making it a pariah state."
Jun 12th 2024
EXTRACTS: "One of the more amusing exercises on the economic calendar is the International Monetary Fund’s annual review of the United States. Yet while everyone knows that the US government pays absolutely no heed to what the IMF has to say about its affairs, the Fund’s most recent Article IV review of the US economy is striking for one unexpected finding. Readers will be startled to learn that, in the IMF’s estimation, US government debt is on a sustainable path." ---- "What then could go wrong? Well, US institutions could turn out not to be so strong. Donald Trump has a personal history of defaulting on his debts. As William Silber has observed, Trump in a second presidential term could instruct his Treasury secretary to suspend payments on the debt, and neither Congress nor the courts might be willing to do anything about it. The gambit would be appealing to Trump insofar as a third of US government debt is held by foreigners. The damage to the dollar’s safe-asset status would be severe, even if Congress, the courts, or a subsequent president reversed Trump’s suspension of debt payments. Investors in US Treasuries would demand a hefty risk premium, potentially causing the government’s interest payments to explode."
Jun 9th 2024
EXTRACT: "An all-too-familiar specter is haunting Europe, one that reliably appears every five years. As citizens head to the polls to elect a new European Parliament, observers are once again asking whether far-right anti-European parties will gain ground and unite to destroy the European Union from within. To be sure, skeptics of this doomsday scenario have always argued that the far right will remain divided, because nationalist internationalism is a contradiction in terms. But it is more likely that specific policy disagreements – mainly over the Ukraine war – and drastically diverging political strategies will prevent Europe’s various far-right parties from forming a 'supergroup.' ”