Dec 5th 2019

The Day After NATO 

by Joschka Fischer

Joschka Fischer, Germany’s Foreign Minister and Vice Chancellor from 1998 until 2005, was a leader in the German Green Party for almost 20 years.


BERLIN – Despite having been written off numerous times, NATO survives. But another fox has entered the hen house, and it has met with the typical European response to danger: furious cackling and an explosion of feathers.

The fox in question is French President Emmanuel Macron, who recently described NATO as experiencing a kind of “brain death.” One need not approve of that choice of words – or of Macron’s new passion for dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin (I, for one, do not) – to recognize the thrust of his argument. A profound change in US strategic priorities under President Donald Trump demands that Europeans revisit long-held assumptions about their collective defense.

This is not the first time that NATO has seemed to be on its last legs. Many had arrived at the same conclusion before 2014, when the alliance had little to focus on beyond the mission in Afghanistan. When Russia annexed Crimea and brought war to Eastern Ukraine, it breathed new life into NATO.

Then came Trump, whose administration has pulled the rug out from under Europe’s feet, abandoned American leadership within the rules-based international system, and pursued a nationalist, protectionist, and unilateralist foreign policy. Trump has declared NATO “obsolete.”

The result is that Europe must fend for itself for the first time since the end of World War II. Yet after so many years of strategic dependence the US, Europe is unprepared – not just materially but psychologically – for today’s harsh geopolitical realities. Nowhere is this truer than in Germany.

NATO’s future is more uncertain now than at any time in its history. Immediately after 1989, few doubted that the alliance would still be around 20 years later. But today, questions about its future emanate from not just Washington, DC, but Paris as well. NATO’s survival can no longer be taken for granted, and Europeans cannot wait 20 years to figure out what should come after it.

Between America’s nationalist turn, China’s growing assertiveness, and the ongoing digital revolution, Europe has no choice but to become a power in its own right. In this respect, Macron has hit the nail on the head. But Europeans should not harbor any illusions about what defense autonomy will require. For the European Union, which has only ever seen itself as an economic rather than a military power, it implies a deep rupture with the status quo.

To be sure, NATO still exists, and there are still US troops deployed in Europe. But the operative word is “still.” Now that traditional institutions and transatlantic security commitments have been cast into doubt, the alliance’s unraveling has become less a matter of “if” than “when.” When will Trump finally decide that it’s time to call the whole thing off? For Europeans, it would be the height of folly to sit back and wait for the fateful tweet to arrive.

Macron understands this, whereas Germany, in typical fashion, is paying mere lip service to its old commitments, promising to increase its defense spending but making little real headway. Macron understands that the rupture in Europe’s defense following a withdrawal of US troops would be far more severe than many seem to expect. It would unfold not as some gradual, barely noticeable transition, but as a sudden break.

If Europe wants to prevent or at least delay that outcome, it must make substantial investments in its military and expand its own capabilities on a massive scale. In other words, it must act as if the break has already happened.

For much of its modern history, Europe has had to deal with two challenges: a turbulent center (Germany) and an unprotected eastern flank (Russia and now China), which has always been open in geopolitical terms. Since its founding, NATO has served as a solution to both of these problems.

As one looks farther east within NATO and the EU, one encounters ever-greater security fears among member states. This is not surprising, given these countries’ geographic proximity to Russia and long history of being on the receiving end of Russian imperialism, manifested most recently in Russia’s armed annexation of Crimea and the war in Eastern Ukraine. For these countries – starting with Poland and the Baltic states – America’s integration in European defense through NATO is indispensable.

Given the geopolitical risks on Europe’s eastern flank, NATO provides a necessary form of insurance, and even fosters solidarity and unity within the EU, by requiring that each member contribute its fair share to the greater good. Trump’s nationalist shift under the slogan of “America first” has suddenly forced Europe to confront the question of its own sovereignty, which means becoming an independent technological power with the ability to act decisively as a united front. The EU never would have done so of its own volition. Trump, whatever his intent, is forcing Europe to reinvent itself. To preserve NATO, the EU must act as if the alliance was already gone.


Joschka Fischer, Germany’s foreign minister and vice chancellor from 1998 to 2005, was a leader of the German Green Party for almost 20 years. 

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2019.

 


This article is brought to you by Project Syndicate that is a not for profit organization.

Project Syndicate brings original, engaging, and thought-provoking commentaries by esteemed leaders and thinkers from around the world to readers everywhere. By offering incisive perspectives on our changing world from those who are shaping its economics, politics, science, and culture, Project Syndicate has created an unrivalled venue for informed public debate. Please see: www.project-syndicate.org.

Should you want to support Project Syndicate you can do it by using the PayPal icon below. Your donation is paid to Project Syndicate in full after PayPal has deducted its transaction fee. Facts & Arts neither receives information about your donation nor a commission.

 

 

Browse articles by author

More Current Affairs

Oct 7th 2009

Here we are once again confronted with yet another public figure who postures one way and acts another.

Oct 5th 2009

French workers have never been known for their flexibility. But the impact of globalization has meant a gradual erosion of the cocoon inside which they have traditionally found comfort.

Oct 1st 2009

Until recently, in the western world, the right of a Great Man to man-handle a reluctant, pliant young woman was simply not questioned. With the advent of sexual harassment laws, the old order is under attack. It won't go down easily.

Sep 30th 2009

In a surprising vote Tuesday, ten Democrats voted to add a public option to the most conservative of the five health insurance reform bills working their way through Congress. That's just two votes short of passage.

Sep 29th 2009

Act One: The Story of Swine Flu and What It Feels Like to Be Sick With It

Sep 26th 2009
The media is full of stories critical of the way Israel deals with the Palestinians.
Sep 25th 2009

Is it all over for health care reform? Is it true that "the fix is in" as my colleague Marcia Angell, M.D., has put it?

Sep 25th 2009

Although the Obama administration's efforts to resume the Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations have not, as yet, produced tangible results, the prospect for a breakthrough in negotiations may be closer today than it has been in many years.

Sep 22nd 2009

Despite the continuing horrors visited upon Palestinians, their deep political divide, relentless Israeli settlement expansion and more, there are glimmers of hope in the Palestinian skies.

Sep 15th 2009

The George W.

Sep 14th 2009
The Sunday New York Times ran a front page story headlined "The Fading Public Option." Since the beginning of the health care debate in April, the main stream media and purveyors of the Conventional Wisdom have regularly pronounced
Sep 10th 2009
When Representative Joe Wilson (R-SC) yelled out that President Obama was a "liar" in the middle of Obama's nationally televised address to a joint session of Congress, he became the poster child for the new
Sep 9th 2009

In The Prince, published in 1532, Nicolo Machiavelli asked whether it was better for a prince to be loved or feared.

Sep 8th 2009
As Congress reconvenes, Republicans and insurance companies are trying their hardest to frame the health care debate as President Obama's attempt to engineer a "government takeover" of the nation's health care system.
Sep 8th 2009

RAMALLAH - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's decision to approve new Jewish settlements on the eve of a possible settlement freeze is the latest round in a cycle that has been repeated so many times over the past 40 years that it would seem mundane if it were not so dangerous.

Sep 7th 2009

Probably the speeches President Obama has scheduled next week will come off as planned. On Tuesday, he is set to address schoolchildren on TV in the nation's classrooms. Some parents, dreading a subliminal message, will refuse to send their children to school.