Feb 10th 2011

Egypt's Days of Glory

by Alon Ben-Meir

A noted journalist and author, Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is professor of international relations and Middle East studies at the Center for Global Affairs at New York University. Ben-Meir holds a masters degree in philosophy and a doctorate in international relations from Oxford University. His exceptional knowledge and insight, the result of more than 20 years of direct involvement in foreign affairs, with a focus on the Middle East, has allowed Dr. Ben-Meir to offer a uniquely invaluable perspective on the nature of world terrorism, conflict resolution and international negotiations. Fluent in Arabic and Hebrew, Ben-Meir's frequent travels to the Middle East and meetings with highly placed officials and academics in many Middle Eastern countries including Egypt, Israel, Jordan, the Palestinian territories, Syria and Turkey provide him with an exceptionally nuanced level of awareness and insight into the developments surrounding breaking news. Ben-Meir often articulates

I want to begin this column by first applauding the Egyptian people. I applaud them not only for their heroism, but for their tenacity, their deep sense of commitment to their fellow countryman, the responsibility they have displayed and their perseverance to see their people's revolution through to its ultimate success. Perhaps none of this is surprising - Egypt, after all, is a country with more than four thousand years of continuing history with unsurpassed cultural riches, a cradle of civilization that has enlightened one generation after another. The revolutionaries stood fast, drawing from their country's glorious history - a history which imbued them with inner strength and determination to rise again and live up to Egypt's future destiny.

Regardless of how many stages and setbacks this revolution will experience, it cannot and will not fail. It has set in motion a wave of awakening, and neither Egypt nor any of the Arab states will be the same again. Regardless of how the Egyptian revolution ends, its outcome will set the tone for the entire Arab world. No Arab leader will be immune from the revolutionary transformation that will sweep the region, and there is no better time for Egypt to reassume the mantra of leadership as exemplified in the manner in which the revolution is unfolding. The quiet deliberations of a few wise men including the former Egyptian Ambassador to Washington, Nabil Fahmi, the former head of the IAEA, Dr. ElBaradei, Google Executive and compassionate voice of protestors, Wael Ghonim, Muslim Brotherhood Leader, Mohammed Badie, Ghad Party Leader, Ayman Nour, former Member of Parliament and Vice President Omer Suleiman and others were filled with symbolism and a hard core reality. They were not torn between their loyalty to President Mubarak and the welfare of their people-it was a far gone conclusion that Mubarak must leave. For them, the question was how to orchestrate his departure gracefully, knowing full well that the whole world was watching and that how they conduct themselves will have serious and lasting reverberations throughout the Middle East and beyond.

Although the revolutionaries are tempted, perhaps for good reason, to oust President Mubarak immediately, they must first pause and consider that pushing Mubarak out of power disgracefully will not automatically bring about the reforms they seek. Moreover, his abrupt removal from power will not only humiliate Mubarak himself but will reflect on Egypt as a country and people who have lost their bearings as they have been engulfed in a revolutionary fervor. Everyone-including President Mubarak-knows that his reign is over. What Egypt needs now is an orderly transfer of power, a transitional period to allow him to finish his term with dignity, albeit with substantially reduced power. The people who have tolerated the Mubarak regime for more than three decades must demonstrate, for Egypt's sake, that regardless of their president's shortcomings, they must act from an historic perspective of Egypt's place and its future role in the Arab world. Mubarak would rather fall on his sword than leave office in disgrace. Those who are negotiating a dignified exit for him must be given every opportunity to finish their task, as long as they remain accountable to the Egyptian people and committed to modernization, economic progress and political freedom. Finally, Mubarak's ultimate fate will send a very strong signal to the rest of the Arab states. No Arab leader wants to leave his office in disgrace; they will resist and resort to any coercive means at their disposal to stay in power. Egypt can provide an example of an orderly transfer of power allowing its leader to depart in a manner befitting Egypt's standing. What the revolutionaries can-and indeed must-do is insist on the immediate repeal of the emergency laws that gave near unlimited power to the police and other internal security apparati that have been known to flagrantly abuse their power. Repealing the emergency laws will give the government some credibility to follow through with other promised reforms.

What is also striking about the Egyptian uprising is the remarkable caring and compassion that most Egyptians displayed to one another. However chaotic the situation, ordinary Egyptians took care of each other, providing food and medical care where needed. They were not directed by any leaders but assumed their own responsibility-they chanted together, resisted together, cried with one another, and raised the banner of revolt together. This was nothing short of a feat, a remarkable display of discipline and a capacity to deal with any adverse situation as the uprising evolved. And when they were intimidated and attacked by thugs who appear to have been dispatched by the Interior Ministry, they fought back together demonstrating solidarity and an iron-clad will to prevail-and they prevailed. The Interior Ministry realized that this is not a battle they want to win because the consequences of such a ‘victory' will be far more calamitous.

Also remarkable is the revolutionaries' focus on their own plight. They did not seek a scapegoat to blame for their dismal states of being. They did not blame Israel or the United States for their country's failures and instead pointed the finger at their own leaders. Here again, unlike many other Arabs who blame Israel, in particular, for all the ills that infect their society, the Egyptians appear to appreciate that peace with Israel is positive. Whereas Mubarak has failed the Egyptian people by stifling social, economic and political developments, he has managed to engrain the peace agreement with Israel in the national psyche of the Egyptian people. Even the Muslim Brotherhood vowed to keep the peace treaty with Israel. Indeed, no revolution can make social, political and economic progress by becoming hostile to its neighbors, especially, in this case, Israel-a nuclear power with formidable conventional military capability and with whom Egypt has no quarrel. In fact, Egypt can only benefit from the bilateral relations as it has in the past. Moreover, the Egyptians understand that each country looks after its own best national interests, including Israel and the US, and it would have been up the Egyptian authorities to look after the interest of the Egyptian people. It is in that sense that Egypt will again set an example to be emulated by the rest of the Arab states.

Another unique phenomenon is how the Egyptian military behaved throughout the revolutionary process. Being a part and parcel of the Egyptian people, the military assumed the responsibility of keeping order in the midst of a chaotic situation. They guarded the interest of the nation as a whole and did not follow the government instinct to subdue the uprising by force. In fact, the opposite was true. The Egyptian military recognized the right of the people to participate in peaceful protest, and refused to take sides while taking security measures deemed best for the country. The military, to be sure, played an extremely constructive role and must now continue to play such a role by insuring the there will be a peaceful transitional period while respecting the social and political reforms that the various civilian opposition parties will agree upon. The military will have to continue to act as the guarantor of the state's security, both from within and outside the country. By its own action and behavior, the Egyptian military will send a clear message to other Arab militaries: the military was created to protect the nation mainly from any outside enemy and not to suppress its citizens.

Finally, as the largest, most culturally advanced Arab country that sets the trend for much of the Arab world, Egypt must now rise to assume its pivotal role in a region riven with instability and competition for regional hegemony, especially between Iran and Turkey. A weak Egypt could leave the Arab world leaderless, creating a vacuum that non-Arab Iran, a predominantly Shiite state, and Turkey, a largely Sunni country, are more than eager to fill. Only Egypt can rise again, not only to lead, but shield the Arab world from being dominated by a non-Arab state.

The revolution in Egypt has occurred in a most critical time in the Middle East history. Peace between Israel and the rest of the Arab world remains precarious at best, Iran is racing to acquire nuclear weapons and Islamic extremist groups are poised to take advantage of failed Arab regimes. The Egyptian revolution offers a clear sign that the old order is finished. The Egyptian people will now shape the new order not only for themselves but for the entire Arab world. The young and brave Egyptian revolutionaries must remember that they-and they alone-will determine Egypt's destiny.

Browse articles by author

More Current Affairs

21 million Americans say Biden is ‘illegitimate’ and Trump should be restored by violence, survey finds
by Robert A. Pape
Sep 24th 2021
EXTRACTS: "We have found that 47 million American adults – nearly 1 in 5 – agree with the statement that “the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump and Joe Biden is an illegitimate president.” Of those, 21 million also agree that “use of force is justified to restore Donald J. Trump to the presidency.” Our survey found that many of these 21 million people with insurrectionist sentiments have the capacity for violent mobilization. At least 7 million of them already own a gun, and at least 3 million have served in the U.S. military and so have lethal skills. Of those 21 million, 6 million said they supported right-wing militias and extremist groups, and 1 million said they are themselves or personally know a member of such a group, including the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys." ----- "..... the Jan. 6 insurrection represents a far more mainstream movement than earlier instances of right-wing extremism across the country. Those events, mostly limited to white supremacist and militia groups, saw more than 100 individuals arrested from 2015 to 2020. But just 14% of those arrested for their actions on Jan. 6 are members of those groups. More than half are business owners or middle-aged white-collar professionals, and only 7% are unemployed."
9/11 did not change the world – it was already on the path to decades of conflict
by Paul Rogers
Sep 11th 2021
EXTRACT: "That long path, though, has from the start had within it one fundamental flaw. If we are to make sense of wider global trends in insecurity, we have to recognise that in all the analysis around the 9/11 anniversary there lies the belief that the main security concern must be with an extreme version of Islam. It may seem a reasonable mistake, given the impact of the wars, but it still misses the point. The war on terror is better seen as one part of a global trend which goes well beyond a single religious tradition – a slow but steady move towards revolts from the margins."
Income Caps and Inequality
by Sam Ben-Meir
Sep 11th 2021
EXTRACTS: "Is it not extraordinary that in a country that claims to be as enlightened and advanced as ours, the combined wealth of three individuals – Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, Microsoft founder Bill Gates, and investor Warren Buffett – exceeds the total wealth of the bottom half of Americans? One has to return to the days of the pharaohs of Egypt to find a parallel to the extreme wealth inequality that we see in in America today." ...... "The top tax rate remained above 90 percent through the 1950s and did not dip below 70 percent until 1981. At no point during the decades that saw America’s greatest economic growth did the tax on the wealthy drop below 70 percent. Today it is somewhere around 37 percent. President Biden’s American Families Plan would increase the top tax rate to 39.6 percent – a fairly modest alteration, albeit in the right direction. It is true that there was a time when the top marginal tax was even lower than it is today: in the years leading up to the Great Depression it hovered around 25 percent."
The Colonial Trap 
by Ian Buruma
Sep 7th 2021
EXTRACT: "But Biden can’t be blamed for the rise of the Taliban, or the fragile state of a country that has seen far too many wars and invasions. The US should not have been there in the first place, but that is a lesson that great powers never seem to learn."
The AI Revolution and Strategic Competition with China
by Eric Schmidt
Sep 4th 2021
EXTRACT: "The world is only starting to grapple with how profound the artificial-intelligence revolution will be. AI technologies will create waves of progress in critical infrastructure, commerce, transportation, health, education, financial markets, food production, and environmental sustainability. Successful adoption of AI will drive economies, reshape societies, and determine which countries set the rules for the coming century." ----- "AI will reorganize the world and change the course of human history. The democratic world must lead that process."
The Stagflation Threat Is Real 
by Nouriel Roubini
Sep 1st 2021
EXTRACT: "Although the Fed is considering tapering its quantitative easing (QE), it will likely remain dovish and behind the curve overall. Like most central banks, it has been lured into a “debt trap” by the surge in private and public liabilities (as a share of GDP) in recent years. Even if inflation stays higher than targeted, exiting QE too soon could cause bond, credit, and stock markets to crash. That would subject the economy to a hard landing, potentially forcing the Fed to reverse itself and resume QE." ---- "After all, that is what happened between the fourth quarter of 2018 and the first quarter of 2019, following the Fed’s previous attempt to raise rates and roll back QE."
Back to the Seventies?
by Kenneth Rogoff
Sep 1st 2021
EXTRACT: "Today’s economic challenges are certainly solvable, and there is no reason why inflation should have to spike."
We Must Not Allow The Republicans To Destroy Our Basic Values
by Dr. Alon Ben-Meir and Dr. Sam Ben-Meir
Aug 27th 2021
EXTRACT: "To be sure, they have focused on their agenda, which is totally misguided—not by our own account but by the account of the majority of the American population, who view the Republican party as one that has lost its moral footing to the detriment of America’s future generations, who must now inherit the ugly consequences of a party that ran asunder."
Afghanistan Was Always About American Politics
by James K. Galbraith
Aug 21st 2021
EXTRACTS: "Now that so many sad truths about Afghanistan are being spoken aloud, even in the major media – let me add one more: The war, from start to finish, was about politics, not in Afghanistan but in the United States. Afghanistan was always a sideshow."--- "....the 2001 invasion was fast and apparently decisive. And so it rescued George W. Bush’s tainted presidency,..." --- "Bush’s approval shot up to 90% and then steadily declined,..."
Biden Was Right 
by Charles A. Kupchan
Aug 17th 2021
EXTRACT: "The Taliban’s virtually uncontested takeover over Afghanistan raises obvious questions about the wisdom of US President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw US and coalition forces from the country. Paradoxically, however, the rapidity and ease of the Taliban’s advance only reaffirms that Biden made the right decision – and that he should not reverse course. ...... The ineffectiveness and collapse of Afghanistan’s military and governing institutions largely substantiates Biden’s skepticism that US-led efforts to prop up the government in Kabul would ever enable it to stand on its own feet. The international community has spent nearly 20 years, many thousands of lives, and trillions of dollars to do good by Afghanistan – taking down al-Qaeda; beating back the Taliban; supporting, advising, training, and equipping the Afghan military; bolstering governing institutions; and investing in the country’s civil society. .... Significant progress was made, but not enough." ....... "That is because the mission was fatally flawed from the outset. It was a fool’s errand to try to turn Afghanistan into a centralized, unitary state. "
Banning Opinion 
by Ian Buruma
Aug 6th 2021
EXTRACT: "But even in the US, which is more lenient than most countries, the principle cannot be absolute. Inciting imminent violence is not permitted. Donald Trump’s speech on January 6, urging the mob to storm the US Capitol, certainly came close to overstepping this boundary. It was a clear demonstration that language can be dangerous. What the internet media has done is raise the stakes; “fighting words” are spread around much faster and more widely than ever before. This will require a great deal of vigilance, to protect our freedom to express ourselves, while observing the social and legal bounds that stop words from turning into actual fighting. "
China's Animal Spirits Deficit 
by Stephen S. Roach
Jul 27th 2021
EXTRACT: "When it comes to the Chinese economy, I have been a congenital optimist for over 25 years. But now I have serious doubts. The Chinese government has taken dead aim at its dynamic technology sector, the engine of China’s New Economy. Its recent actions are symptomatic of a deeper problem: the state’s efforts to control the energy of animal spirits." ---- "... the Chinese economy, no less than others, still requires a foundation of trust – trust in the consistency of leadership priorities, in transparent governance, and in wise regulatory oversight – to flourish. --- Modern China lacks this foundation of trust ."
Put Central Bankers in Their Place
by Howard Davies
Jul 25th 2021
EXTRACT: "It seems that they are, as the last 18 months have seen a remarkable expansion of the central banks’ fields of activity, largely driven by their own ambitions. So they have moved into the climate change arena, arguing that financial stability may be put at risk by rising temperatures, and that central banks, as bond purchasers and as banking supervisors, can and should be proactive in raising the cost of credit for corporations without a credible transition plan. That is a promising new line of business, which is likely to grow. ---- Central banks are also trying to move into social engineering, specifically the policy response to rising income and wealth inequality, another hot button topic with high political salience."
Europe’s Green Unilateralism 
by Hans-Werner Sinn
Jul 25th 2021
EXTRACT: "The EU’s ambitious unilateral climate strategy will transform Europe into a trade fortress, encourage green protectionism worldwide, and give other regions the opportunity to develop using cheaper energy. And without China, India, and the United States on board, other countries will be careful not to follow the EU in its self-appointed role as the world’s green guinea pig. If Europe is not careful, it will risk finding itself in a climate club of one. "
Beefatarians Not Wanted
by Peter Singer
Jul 9th 2021
EXTRACT: ".... ruminants belch and fart methane, an extremely potent greenhouse gas. As a result, rearing beef cattle brings about, on average, six times the contribution to global warming as non-ruminant animals (for example, pigs) producing the same quantity of protein. ..... if projected to 2050 [beef production], would use 87% of the total quantity of emissions that is compatible with the Paris climate agreement’s objective of staying below a 2° Celsius increase in temperature."
Joe Biden’s Nixon Strategy
by Melvyn B. Krauss
Jul 8th 2021
EXTRACT: " .... while China’s leaders never mention it, they are just as embittered over Russia’s theft of Chinese territory in the nineteenth century as they are over the West’s imperial predations. With Western imperialism having been largely rolled back, it is Russia’s continued occupation of historic Chinese territory that stands out the most to ordinary Chinese observers. For example, the city of Vladivostok, with its vast naval base, has been a part of Russia only since 1860, when the tsars built a military harbor there. Before that, the city was known by the Manchu name of Haishenwai." ---- "There is also a demographic argument for Putin to consider: the six million Russians spread along the Siberian border face 90 million Chinese on the other side. And many of these Chinese regularly cross the border into Russia to trade (and a good number to stay)."
After Afghanistan Falls
by Djoomart Otorbaev
Jul 7th 2021
EXTRACTS: "According to a new analysis by researchers at Brown University, America’s two-decade war in Afghanistan cost it nearly $2.3 trillion. Now, Afghanistan’s neighbors – Pakistan, Iran, China, India, and the Central Asian countries – are wondering just how much it will cost them to maintain security after the United States is gone." ----- "After clandestinely supporting the Taliban as a means to undermine the US war effort, Russia now fears broader destabilization in Central Asia and beyond." ---- "Similarly, after having made nice with the Taliban, China also now fears the greater regional instability that the US withdrawal may incite. In addition to disrupting Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Eurasia-spanning Belt and Road Initiative, a revitalized Taliban could re-energize the Islamist extremist threat in China’s western Xinjiang province."
The Looming Stagflationary Debt Crisis 
by Nouriel Roubini
Jul 1st 2021
EXTRACT: "When former Fed Chair Paul Volcker hiked rates to tackle inflation in 1980-82, the result was a severe double-dip recession in the United States and a debt crisis and lost decade for Latin America. But now that global debt ratios are almost three times higher than in the early 1970s, any anti-inflationary policy would lead to a depression, rather than a severe recession. ---- Under these conditions, central banks will be damned if they do and damned if they don’t, and many governments will be semi-insolvent and thus unable to bail out banks, corporations, and households. The doom loop of sovereigns and banks in the eurozone after the global financial crisis will be repeated worldwide, sucking in households, corporations, and shadow banks as well. ---- As matters stand, this slow-motion train wreck looks unavoidable."
China and the west: competing traditions make true friendship highly unlikely – here’s why
by Astrid H. M. Nordin and Graham M Smith
Jun 19th 2021
EXTRACT: "Xi Jinping’s call for friendship gives us an opportunity to examine Chinese politics on both the domestic and international stage. On the face of it, it suggests the possibility of rapprochement between the rich liberal democracies represented by the G7 and the authoritarian Chinese state. However, despite appearances of a call for a closer relationship, there is more than one way of being friends – and Xi’s idea might be somewhat different to what many in countries attending the G7 might expect."
The Upside of Population Decline
by Adair Turner
Jun 12th 2021
EXTRACT: "China’s recently published census, showing that its population has almost stopped growing, brought warnings of severe problems for the country. “Such numbers make grim reading for the party,” reported The Economist. This “could have a disastrous impact on the country,” wrote Huang Wenzheng, a fellow at the Center for China and Globalization in Beijing, in the Financial Times. But a comment posted on China’s Weibo was more insightful. “The declining fertility rate actually reflects the progress in the thinking of Chinese people – women are no longer a fertility tool.” "