Apr 28th 2011

The Great Chess Game

by Alon Ben-Meir

A noted journalist and author, Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is professor of international relations and Middle East studies at the Center for Global Affairs at New York University. Ben-Meir holds a masters degree in philosophy and a doctorate in international relations from Oxford University. His exceptional knowledge and insight, the result of more than 20 years of direct involvement in foreign affairs, with a focus on the Middle East, has allowed Dr. Ben-Meir to offer a uniquely invaluable perspective on the nature of world terrorism, conflict resolution and international negotiations. Fluent in Arabic and Hebrew, Ben-Meir's frequent travels to the Middle East and meetings with highly placed officials and academics in many Middle Eastern countries including Egypt, Israel, Jordan, the Palestinian territories, Syria and Turkey provide him with an exceptionally nuanced level of awareness and insight into the developments surrounding breaking news. Ben-Meir often articulates

Amidst the stalemate in Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking, a storm of diplomatic activity is brewing. The Palestinians, Israel and the United States are carefully calculating what moves to make next. Only the Palestinians appear to have a clear-cut strategy: to bring the conflict to the international arena through a United Nations General Assembly Resolution recognizing a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, within the 1967 borders. Meanwhile, the United States and Israel are feverishly working to develop counter strategies of their own that will shelve the Palestinians' United Nations plan and maintain some semblance of the prospect that a two-state solution can be reached through good-faith negotiations. For that to succeed, however, Israel must come up with a credible peace plan that the Palestinians are willing to accept as a basis for negotiations and that the Obama administration can also embrace. But with the September United Nations General Assembly just five months away, the time to make such a move on the Mideast chessboard is now.

The Palestinian Authority's recognition strategy has, on the surface, been quite successful. Over 130 nations have already endorsed the proposed resolution for statehood and many other countries are prepared to recognize a Palestinian state. In the interim, many South American nations have already recognized Palestine over the last several months. Western European nations that support the two-state solution and have generously funded Palestinian civil society programs, and institutions are eager to see the benefits of their decades-long investments. In advance of another donors' conference in Paris in June to discuss new aid to the Palestinians, the Palestinian Authority's Prime Minister Salam Fayyad met the donor's coordination group for the Palestinian territories, the Ad Hoc Liaison Committee on April 13 in Brussels. In the forward of the report, Fayyad wrote: "We stand today on the verge of national readiness for the birth of the state of Palestine." He presented them with his new National development Plans for 2011-2013 titled "Establishing the State, Building our Future."

Strengthening Fayyad's arguments, reports have been issued by United Nations Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, Robert Serry, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, all expressing enthusiastic support for the progress toward a self-sustaining Palestinian state. The UN report indicated that "In six areas where the UN is most engaged, government operations are now sufficient for a functioning government of a (Palestinian) state." The International Monetary Fund stated that "The PA is now able to conduct the sound economic policies expected of a future well-functioning Palestinian state." And, the World Bank said that "If the Palestinian Authority maintains its performance in institution-building and delivery of public services, it is well positioned for the establishment of a state at any point in the near future." Even more, President Barack Obama himself stated to great applause in his address to last year's United Nations General Assembly that "When we come back here next year, we can have an agreement that will lead to a new member of the United Nations-an independent, sovereign state of Palestine, living in peace with Israel." With so many elements coalescing together, the Palestinian plan for recognition come September seems to be in place-or does it?

Privately, some Palestinians recognize the drawbacks of the UN option and even admit that this is not a solution, but only a change in the nature of the conflict. UN recognition cannot remove Israeli soldiers or West Bank settlers. It cannot enable the flow of goods into or between Palestinian territories, nor does it solve the Fatah-Hamas split. Should there be no political progress after September, even with recognition; President Mahmoud Abbas has threatened to resign. But what would be next? While much has been invested in developing the threat of a unilateral declaration, there appears to be little strategy as to what to do with that recognition. Prime Minister Salaam Fayyad's institution building plan continues to be an admirable enterprise, but is it unsustainable without continued cooperation, coordination, and negotiations with Israel, especially since an important part of the Palestinian successes-as suggested by the IMF report-are attributed to Israel's security cooperation and support of the Palestinians' economic development programs? And how does the Gaza Strip factor into the UN's recognition if it is still under the control of Hamas, who seeks the destruction of Israel, another UN member state? These uncertainties, coupled with the regional unrest, have led Fatah and Hamas to renewed reconciliation talks. Although both sides know that reaching a unity agreement before going to the UNGA is critical, whether a Fatah-Hamas agreement is imminent, or even possible, remains to be seen, especially since each has adopted a different strategy toward Israel if not a different objective altogether. However, it is clear that with uncertainties and questions mounting, the Palestinian Authority would be eager to grasp at a new diplomatic initiative if it offered a way for the Palestinian leadership to save face, and provided the Palestinian people with confidence that their national aspirations are being met, and that the conflict with Israel is finally ended.

Only the United States and Israel can give the Palestinians such assurances-but will they do so? Israeli officials have publicly recognized the potential chaos that would erupt should a Palestinian state be declared. Recently, Defense Minister Ehud Barak told a conference of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv that in such a scenario Israel would face a "diplomatic tsunami." In his meeting two weeks ago with President Barack Obama, Israel's President Shimon Peres' is widely believed to have laid the groundwork for the possibility of an Israeli initiative that would head-off the Palestinian one. When Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrives in Washington in late May for the annual AIPAC conference, all eyes will be awaiting a much anticipated "Netanyahu plan." And, perhaps to President Obama's chagrin, Netanyahu was invited by the House Speaker, John Boehner, to address a joint session of Congress where he is expected to be received with warm welcome, especially by Republicans. Rumors thus far indicate that Netanyahu's plan could include a withdrawal of IDF soldiers from some areas in the West Bank and transfer security responsibilities to Palestinian control, allowing Palestinian security forces to operate with greater freedom and autonomy. Yet while Netanyahu has put the brakes on recent Jerusalem construction plans, his rumored plan does not include removing any settlers from the West Bank (at least at this juncture) and a freeze on housing construction in the settlements which the PA made a sin qua non to the resumption of negotiations. To be sure, Netanyahu stands to lose the support of his two main coalition partners, Shas and Israel Beiteinu, who respectively reject compromises on Jerusalem and sweeping territorial concessions that will include uprooting scores of settlements. If he seriously discusses these sensitive issues which the Palestinians insist upon, he will also lose the support of many members of his own Likud party in the Knesset. With such political obstacles in place, Netanyahu's ability to deliver a plan that will be sufficient to keep the Palestinians from using the UN option is doubtful. However, what is abundantly clear based on his own history, Netanyahu will market any plan he develops during his trip to Washington as if it is a monumental leap toward peace-and many US legislators are likely to buy it. But will the Palestinians?

Today, President Obama is boxed in by all sides. His remarks at the UN General Assembly last year (and in Cairo before that), the consistent development of the Palestinian Authority hailed by international bodies, the democratic revolutions of the current "Arab Spring," and the potential fallout should a solution to the current stalemate not be found, all suggest that it is high time for a Palestinian state. But there are also constraints on the other side. Obama surely realizes that Israel feels threatened by the uncertainty that has gripped the region as a result of the Arab revolts, and is particularly reluctant to pursue peace as a result. Without Israel's consent, any arrangement for the Palestinians is unlikely to be sustainable. Even more, the "diplomatic tsunami" that could face Israel should the President be unsuccessful in navigating the peace process out of its current malaise will be on his watch, during an election season, in which 63 percent of Americans sympathize with Israel.

President Obama would like nothing more than to expand upon a meaningful initiative by Prime Minister Netanyahu that he could package to the Palestinians and the reshaping Arab world. He would also undoubtedly love to travel to Jerusalem-as he is rumored to be contemplating attending Shimon Peres' "Tomorrow Conference" in June-with a message of friendship and peacemaking in-hand, in order to place the highly publicized tension between him and the Israeli prime minister in the past. But he cannot do so without Netanyahu's help.

The United States is eager to advance an initiative that will provide ample grounds to renew negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians, rather than see them pursue unilateral measures. The parameters of a two-state solution are known and have been rehashed ad nauseum. It is likely that most Israelis and Palestinians want the same. But for now, in the Mideast chess game, all eyes remain on the Israeli prime minister-it is now Netanyahu's move.

*This article was originally published by the Jerusalem Post on 4/22 and can be accessed at:http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Article.aspx?id=217449


Browse articles by author

More Current Affairs

21 million Americans say Biden is ‘illegitimate’ and Trump should be restored by violence, survey finds
by Robert A. Pape
Sep 24th 2021
EXTRACTS: "We have found that 47 million American adults – nearly 1 in 5 – agree with the statement that “the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump and Joe Biden is an illegitimate president.” Of those, 21 million also agree that “use of force is justified to restore Donald J. Trump to the presidency.” Our survey found that many of these 21 million people with insurrectionist sentiments have the capacity for violent mobilization. At least 7 million of them already own a gun, and at least 3 million have served in the U.S. military and so have lethal skills. Of those 21 million, 6 million said they supported right-wing militias and extremist groups, and 1 million said they are themselves or personally know a member of such a group, including the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys." ----- "..... the Jan. 6 insurrection represents a far more mainstream movement than earlier instances of right-wing extremism across the country. Those events, mostly limited to white supremacist and militia groups, saw more than 100 individuals arrested from 2015 to 2020. But just 14% of those arrested for their actions on Jan. 6 are members of those groups. More than half are business owners or middle-aged white-collar professionals, and only 7% are unemployed."
9/11 did not change the world – it was already on the path to decades of conflict
by Paul Rogers
Sep 11th 2021
EXTRACT: "That long path, though, has from the start had within it one fundamental flaw. If we are to make sense of wider global trends in insecurity, we have to recognise that in all the analysis around the 9/11 anniversary there lies the belief that the main security concern must be with an extreme version of Islam. It may seem a reasonable mistake, given the impact of the wars, but it still misses the point. The war on terror is better seen as one part of a global trend which goes well beyond a single religious tradition – a slow but steady move towards revolts from the margins."
Income Caps and Inequality
by Sam Ben-Meir
Sep 11th 2021
EXTRACTS: "Is it not extraordinary that in a country that claims to be as enlightened and advanced as ours, the combined wealth of three individuals – Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, Microsoft founder Bill Gates, and investor Warren Buffett – exceeds the total wealth of the bottom half of Americans? One has to return to the days of the pharaohs of Egypt to find a parallel to the extreme wealth inequality that we see in in America today." ...... "The top tax rate remained above 90 percent through the 1950s and did not dip below 70 percent until 1981. At no point during the decades that saw America’s greatest economic growth did the tax on the wealthy drop below 70 percent. Today it is somewhere around 37 percent. President Biden’s American Families Plan would increase the top tax rate to 39.6 percent – a fairly modest alteration, albeit in the right direction. It is true that there was a time when the top marginal tax was even lower than it is today: in the years leading up to the Great Depression it hovered around 25 percent."
The Colonial Trap 
by Ian Buruma
Sep 7th 2021
EXTRACT: "But Biden can’t be blamed for the rise of the Taliban, or the fragile state of a country that has seen far too many wars and invasions. The US should not have been there in the first place, but that is a lesson that great powers never seem to learn."
The AI Revolution and Strategic Competition with China
by Eric Schmidt
Sep 4th 2021
EXTRACT: "The world is only starting to grapple with how profound the artificial-intelligence revolution will be. AI technologies will create waves of progress in critical infrastructure, commerce, transportation, health, education, financial markets, food production, and environmental sustainability. Successful adoption of AI will drive economies, reshape societies, and determine which countries set the rules for the coming century." ----- "AI will reorganize the world and change the course of human history. The democratic world must lead that process."
The Stagflation Threat Is Real 
by Nouriel Roubini
Sep 1st 2021
EXTRACT: "Although the Fed is considering tapering its quantitative easing (QE), it will likely remain dovish and behind the curve overall. Like most central banks, it has been lured into a “debt trap” by the surge in private and public liabilities (as a share of GDP) in recent years. Even if inflation stays higher than targeted, exiting QE too soon could cause bond, credit, and stock markets to crash. That would subject the economy to a hard landing, potentially forcing the Fed to reverse itself and resume QE." ---- "After all, that is what happened between the fourth quarter of 2018 and the first quarter of 2019, following the Fed’s previous attempt to raise rates and roll back QE."
Back to the Seventies?
by Kenneth Rogoff
Sep 1st 2021
EXTRACT: "Today’s economic challenges are certainly solvable, and there is no reason why inflation should have to spike."
We Must Not Allow The Republicans To Destroy Our Basic Values
by Dr. Alon Ben-Meir and Dr. Sam Ben-Meir
Aug 27th 2021
EXTRACT: "To be sure, they have focused on their agenda, which is totally misguided—not by our own account but by the account of the majority of the American population, who view the Republican party as one that has lost its moral footing to the detriment of America’s future generations, who must now inherit the ugly consequences of a party that ran asunder."
Afghanistan Was Always About American Politics
by James K. Galbraith
Aug 21st 2021
EXTRACTS: "Now that so many sad truths about Afghanistan are being spoken aloud, even in the major media – let me add one more: The war, from start to finish, was about politics, not in Afghanistan but in the United States. Afghanistan was always a sideshow."--- "....the 2001 invasion was fast and apparently decisive. And so it rescued George W. Bush’s tainted presidency,..." --- "Bush’s approval shot up to 90% and then steadily declined,..."
Biden Was Right 
by Charles A. Kupchan
Aug 17th 2021
EXTRACT: "The Taliban’s virtually uncontested takeover over Afghanistan raises obvious questions about the wisdom of US President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw US and coalition forces from the country. Paradoxically, however, the rapidity and ease of the Taliban’s advance only reaffirms that Biden made the right decision – and that he should not reverse course. ...... The ineffectiveness and collapse of Afghanistan’s military and governing institutions largely substantiates Biden’s skepticism that US-led efforts to prop up the government in Kabul would ever enable it to stand on its own feet. The international community has spent nearly 20 years, many thousands of lives, and trillions of dollars to do good by Afghanistan – taking down al-Qaeda; beating back the Taliban; supporting, advising, training, and equipping the Afghan military; bolstering governing institutions; and investing in the country’s civil society. .... Significant progress was made, but not enough." ....... "That is because the mission was fatally flawed from the outset. It was a fool’s errand to try to turn Afghanistan into a centralized, unitary state. "
Banning Opinion 
by Ian Buruma
Aug 6th 2021
EXTRACT: "But even in the US, which is more lenient than most countries, the principle cannot be absolute. Inciting imminent violence is not permitted. Donald Trump’s speech on January 6, urging the mob to storm the US Capitol, certainly came close to overstepping this boundary. It was a clear demonstration that language can be dangerous. What the internet media has done is raise the stakes; “fighting words” are spread around much faster and more widely than ever before. This will require a great deal of vigilance, to protect our freedom to express ourselves, while observing the social and legal bounds that stop words from turning into actual fighting. "
China's Animal Spirits Deficit 
by Stephen S. Roach
Jul 27th 2021
EXTRACT: "When it comes to the Chinese economy, I have been a congenital optimist for over 25 years. But now I have serious doubts. The Chinese government has taken dead aim at its dynamic technology sector, the engine of China’s New Economy. Its recent actions are symptomatic of a deeper problem: the state’s efforts to control the energy of animal spirits." ---- "... the Chinese economy, no less than others, still requires a foundation of trust – trust in the consistency of leadership priorities, in transparent governance, and in wise regulatory oversight – to flourish. --- Modern China lacks this foundation of trust ."
Put Central Bankers in Their Place
by Howard Davies
Jul 25th 2021
EXTRACT: "It seems that they are, as the last 18 months have seen a remarkable expansion of the central banks’ fields of activity, largely driven by their own ambitions. So they have moved into the climate change arena, arguing that financial stability may be put at risk by rising temperatures, and that central banks, as bond purchasers and as banking supervisors, can and should be proactive in raising the cost of credit for corporations without a credible transition plan. That is a promising new line of business, which is likely to grow. ---- Central banks are also trying to move into social engineering, specifically the policy response to rising income and wealth inequality, another hot button topic with high political salience."
Europe’s Green Unilateralism 
by Hans-Werner Sinn
Jul 25th 2021
EXTRACT: "The EU’s ambitious unilateral climate strategy will transform Europe into a trade fortress, encourage green protectionism worldwide, and give other regions the opportunity to develop using cheaper energy. And without China, India, and the United States on board, other countries will be careful not to follow the EU in its self-appointed role as the world’s green guinea pig. If Europe is not careful, it will risk finding itself in a climate club of one. "
Beefatarians Not Wanted
by Peter Singer
Jul 9th 2021
EXTRACT: ".... ruminants belch and fart methane, an extremely potent greenhouse gas. As a result, rearing beef cattle brings about, on average, six times the contribution to global warming as non-ruminant animals (for example, pigs) producing the same quantity of protein. ..... if projected to 2050 [beef production], would use 87% of the total quantity of emissions that is compatible with the Paris climate agreement’s objective of staying below a 2° Celsius increase in temperature."
Joe Biden’s Nixon Strategy
by Melvyn B. Krauss
Jul 8th 2021
EXTRACT: " .... while China’s leaders never mention it, they are just as embittered over Russia’s theft of Chinese territory in the nineteenth century as they are over the West’s imperial predations. With Western imperialism having been largely rolled back, it is Russia’s continued occupation of historic Chinese territory that stands out the most to ordinary Chinese observers. For example, the city of Vladivostok, with its vast naval base, has been a part of Russia only since 1860, when the tsars built a military harbor there. Before that, the city was known by the Manchu name of Haishenwai." ---- "There is also a demographic argument for Putin to consider: the six million Russians spread along the Siberian border face 90 million Chinese on the other side. And many of these Chinese regularly cross the border into Russia to trade (and a good number to stay)."
After Afghanistan Falls
by Djoomart Otorbaev
Jul 7th 2021
EXTRACTS: "According to a new analysis by researchers at Brown University, America’s two-decade war in Afghanistan cost it nearly $2.3 trillion. Now, Afghanistan’s neighbors – Pakistan, Iran, China, India, and the Central Asian countries – are wondering just how much it will cost them to maintain security after the United States is gone." ----- "After clandestinely supporting the Taliban as a means to undermine the US war effort, Russia now fears broader destabilization in Central Asia and beyond." ---- "Similarly, after having made nice with the Taliban, China also now fears the greater regional instability that the US withdrawal may incite. In addition to disrupting Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Eurasia-spanning Belt and Road Initiative, a revitalized Taliban could re-energize the Islamist extremist threat in China’s western Xinjiang province."
The Looming Stagflationary Debt Crisis 
by Nouriel Roubini
Jul 1st 2021
EXTRACT: "When former Fed Chair Paul Volcker hiked rates to tackle inflation in 1980-82, the result was a severe double-dip recession in the United States and a debt crisis and lost decade for Latin America. But now that global debt ratios are almost three times higher than in the early 1970s, any anti-inflationary policy would lead to a depression, rather than a severe recession. ---- Under these conditions, central banks will be damned if they do and damned if they don’t, and many governments will be semi-insolvent and thus unable to bail out banks, corporations, and households. The doom loop of sovereigns and banks in the eurozone after the global financial crisis will be repeated worldwide, sucking in households, corporations, and shadow banks as well. ---- As matters stand, this slow-motion train wreck looks unavoidable."
China and the west: competing traditions make true friendship highly unlikely – here’s why
by Astrid H. M. Nordin and Graham M Smith
Jun 19th 2021
EXTRACT: "Xi Jinping’s call for friendship gives us an opportunity to examine Chinese politics on both the domestic and international stage. On the face of it, it suggests the possibility of rapprochement between the rich liberal democracies represented by the G7 and the authoritarian Chinese state. However, despite appearances of a call for a closer relationship, there is more than one way of being friends – and Xi’s idea might be somewhat different to what many in countries attending the G7 might expect."
The Upside of Population Decline
by Adair Turner
Jun 12th 2021
EXTRACT: "China’s recently published census, showing that its population has almost stopped growing, brought warnings of severe problems for the country. “Such numbers make grim reading for the party,” reported The Economist. This “could have a disastrous impact on the country,” wrote Huang Wenzheng, a fellow at the Center for China and Globalization in Beijing, in the Financial Times. But a comment posted on China’s Weibo was more insightful. “The declining fertility rate actually reflects the progress in the thinking of Chinese people – women are no longer a fertility tool.” "