Sep 18th 2018

Has Putin’s Popularity Bubble Burst? 

 

MOSCOW – From controlling the media to stoking nationalism, Russian President Vladimir Putin has always known how to keep his approval ratings high. But Russians’ lives are not getting any better, especially after the latest round of Western economic sanctions – and Putin’s declining approval rating shows it.

In April, the ruble was tumbling, owing partly to the sanctions imposed in response to the Kremlin’s alleged poisoning of the former Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter on British soil. Then, in June, just as the Russia-hosted World Cup was getting underway, the government proposed increasing the retirement age from 60 to 65 for men and from 55 to 63 for women, prompting an immediate public backlash. The result was a sharp 15-point decline in the approval rating of the government overall – the largest decline of Putin’s 18-year rule.

Moreover, trust in Putin himself dipped to 48%, from about 60%. To put that in perspective, even at the beginning of Putin’s third term in 2012 – when there were mass protests over his return to the presidency after his stint as prime minister – around 60% of Russians said that they trusted him.

At that time, Putin raised his approval rating by establishing himself as Russia’s defender. When the United States, under President Barack Obama, showed itself to be unwilling to enforce its “red line” in Syria – the use of chemical weapons by President Bashar al-Assad – the Kremlin jumped in, establishing Russia as a sinister guarantor of Assad’s disarmament.

To reinforce his domestic standing further by signaling that Russia does not bend to America’s will, Putin granted asylum to National Security Agency whistleblower Edward Snowden. Within Russia, Putin ensured that new bridges and roads were built, infrastructure was upgraded, and public spaces were renewed, with parks, fountains, and cafes.

Though none of this helped Russians economically, much less expanded their freedoms, it established Putin as a champion of “Great Russia.” After Russia invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea in March 2014 – unapologetically defying the West – his approval rating reached a dizzyingly high 87%.

In March, Putin won the presidential election handily, securing his fourth term as president with 76% of the vote, owing partly to the absence of other viable candidates. Immediately after the election, his approval rating stood at 82%.

But the World Cup that began soon after took a toll. By bringing over 700,000 international visitors, the tournament changed Russians’ perception of what matters – and of their leader. An ungracious host, Putin stood under an umbrella during the final post-match ceremony, while the presidents of Croatia and France got soaked by the pouring rain.

Meanwhile, the Russian people impressed the world with their happy hospitality. The bar owners, train conductors, and English-speaking volunteers welcomed visitors warmly. Russians realized that they didn’t need to win at all costs; they could be great without the Kremlin’s militaristic say-so.

Then the pension reform was announced, spurring a string of protests that drove Putin to pledge to soften the measure, while asking for Russians’ understanding. Yet, as of September 3, 53% of the population said that they were ready to protest further. And on September 9, while local government elections took place, tens of thousands of Russians joined protests organized by the anti-corruption lawyer and opposition leader Alexei Navalny, defying the prohibition of “political agitation” on election days.

Navalny himself couldn’t attend the event, after being arrested for a previous unsanctioned demonstration. But that didn’t stop at least 2,500 protesters from showing up on Moscow’s Pushkin Square, where they stood up to merciless police, waving signs emblazoned with slogans like “No Way” (a play on Putin’s name: “put” means “way” in Russian) and “Putin, it’s time to retire” (he is 65).

Protesters included many young people, who are angry not just about the pension reform, which will not affect them for a long time, but about the Putin regime’s wider failings. Many believe that even if Putin has restored Russia’s status as a “great power,” that does not compensate for rampant corruption and a lack of opportunities at home. Young people view the regime as outdated, and Putin himself as an obstacle to the changes – such as increased investment in social programs – needed to raise living standards.

But it is not just young people who are souring on Putin. Russian businesspeople are frustrated by the effects of sanctions and angry about planned tax increases. Like young Russians, entrepreneurs are questioning whether Putin’s assertive foreign policy of militant nationalism, which won him so much domestic support in the past, is worth the price, including the actual cost of Russia’s military activities and the impact of Russia’s increasing economic and political isolation from the West.

Putin surely knows that his position is shaky. That is why police meted out such rough treatment to protesters, arresting them by the hundreds. The Kremlin fears not only more rallies, but also intensifying opposition from businesspeople, some of whom rank among Russia’s powerful elites. Regional authorities could also begin to sabotage the Kremlin’s decisions.

Putin’s image as a steward of Russia’s greatness and a symbol of hope is slipping away, and his tried-and-true tactic for renewing his popularity – say, annexing territory from a neighboring country or intervening in a civil war – is not a practical long-term strategy. Unless Putin makes real changes within Russia, his approval rating will continue to slide, increasing the chances that one way or another, he will finally leave the presidency when his current term expires in 2024, if not before.


Nina L. Khrushcheva is Professor of International Affairs at The New School and a senior fellow at the World Policy Institute. 

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2018.
www.project-syndicate.org

 


This article is brought to you by Project Syndicate that is a not for profit organization.

Project Syndicate brings original, engaging, and thought-provoking commentaries by esteemed leaders and thinkers from around the world to readers everywhere. By offering incisive perspectives on our changing world from those who are shaping its economics, politics, science, and culture, Project Syndicate has created an unrivalled venue for informed public debate. Please see: www.project-syndicate.org.

Should you want to support Project Syndicate you can do it by using the PayPal icon below. Your donation is paid to Project Syndicate in full after PayPal has deducted its transaction fee. Facts & Arts neither receives information about your donation nor a commission.

 

 

Browse articles by author

More Current Affairs

Apr 8th 2009

U.S. President Barack Obama's trip to Europe marked the culmination of a generational shift in leadership among Western democracies. The generation yielding power -- the Baby Boomers -- are so strongly connected to the 1960's that they are often called "68ers" in Europe.

Apr 8th 2009

GENEVA - Leaders of the G-20 have now declared that "the era of banking secrecy is over," and have threatened to take action against "non-cooperative jurisdictions, including tax havens." No one should include Switzerland among these, for the Swiss government has already o

Apr 8th 2009

The new Israeli government led by Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu has raised
many conflicting feelings among those concerned about the fate of the
Arab-Israeli peace process. Will Netanyahu scuttle the little progress that was

Apr 7th 2009

It was speech that stirred my soul, both as an American and as a Muslim.

Apr 6th 2009

Long before Barack Hussein Obama was sworn in as the 44th president of the United States of America, people in Turkey had expressed a sentiment of hope about his presidency.

Apr 6th 2009

ISTANBUL - "If we can show that a big Muslim nation can modernize itself with the help of friends," former German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer has argued on behalf of Turkey's admission to the European Union, "it demonstrates that a strong civil society, equa

Apr 5th 2009

Wall Street cheered the Geithner Plan to save the American financial system unveiled on March 23. The S & P has rallied by over 22% at this writing (April 2) since the outline was leaked in early March. Shares of selected fund management companies took off like a rocket.

Apr 4th 2009

ROME/STOCKHOLM - The ongoing global economic crisis is shaking beliefs and approaches that have long been enshrined in European policies. Indeed, the crisis is calling into question the very foundations of the European Union.

Apr 3rd 2009

In several years books will be radically different. I don't know what form they will take, but one thing for sure is that they won't be ink on paper.

Apr 3rd 2009

When Benjamin Netanyahu became Prime Minister in 1996, he ran on a platform dedicated to ending the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. That is what he said in Israel. For U.S.

Apr 2nd 2009

Today, the leaders of the world's 20 largest economies are meeting in London.

Apr 1st 2009

PARIS - Negotiations over Iran's nuclear program have been stalled for more than three years. For six years, the voices of reason have largely been drowned out, with passions and delusions claiming primacy.

Apr 1st 2009

Where's the gravitas? Where are the leaders? I know there's talk that people want to be forever young, but I'd like to make a counter-argument. If there was ever a time that the world needed some grownups (or at least some grownup behavior), it's now.

Mar 31st 2009

CAMBRIDGE - A huge struggle is brewing within the G-20 over the future of the global financial system. The outcome could impact the world - and not only the esoteric world of international finance - for decades to come.

Mar 27th 2009

BBC headlines reports" Banned Dutch MP held at Heathrow -A Dutch MP who called the Koran a "fascist book" is to be sent back to the Netherlands after attempting to defy a ban on entering the UK.

Mar 25th 2009

Today (Editor's note: March 16) is the sixth anniversary of the death of Rachel Corrie. On March 16, 2003, in Rafah, in the Gaza Strip, she was run over by an armor-plated Caterpillar bulldozer, a machine sold by the U.S.