Dec 10th 2013

Iran Will Become A Nuclear Power, Unless…

by Alon Ben-Meir

 

Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a retired professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He taught courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies for over 20 years.

In my last article I surveyed as impartially as I could the position of the various countries that might be affected by the interim deal recently forged between Iran and the P5+1 (the US, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany). In this article I venture to explain why I believe that Iran will not give up its goal to acquire nuclear weapons and what is behind its determination to try to render even a permanent agreement, if ever achieved, transient at best. Finally, I raise the question as to whether or not there is a way to peacefully prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear state.

It should be noted at the onset that Iran’s suffering from the intense sanctions that nearly crippled its economy was the prime, if not the only, reason that brought it to the negotiating table. This was, however, no more than a tactical move, a sort of strategic retreat from the ‘battlefield’ to get some relief, only to regroup and go back on the offensive from a better strategic position in order to achieve its intended objective.

There are four different dimensions to Iran’s relentless drive to acquire nuclear weapons:

National pride: Iran’s vision of its regional and international role, its self-assumed Islamic mission to promulgate its own vision of Islam, and its national pride preclude any agreement that can prevent it from becoming a nuclear power.

Iran is a proud nation with an enduring history that spans over four millennia, and throughout much of its history it has projected power and influence in the region and beyond. It has thesecond-largest oil reserves in the region, and is located in one of the world’s most strategic regions, enjoying effective dominance over the Strait of Hormuz through which nearly 40% of the world’s oil passes.

The Iranian people are highly invested and infused with national pride and feel they deserve to be treated with respect. They view the possession of nuclear weapons as the main strategic tool that would accord them that respect, particularly following (as they see it) decades of exploitation and humiliation by Western powers.

Regional hegemony: There are 72 million Shiites in Iran (representing 89% of the population) plus more than 20 million Shiites in Iraq, against a total of 52 million Sunnis in all of the Gulf States combined – namely Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.

From the Iranian perspective, the Gulf’s overwhelming Shiite majority combined with a long history of cultural and material riches grants Iran the inherent right to become the regional hegemon.

This also explains Iran’s determination to continue to wage a proxy war in Syria in support of Assad’s Alawite regime (an offshoot of Shiism) against a plethora of Sunni factions and states led by Saudi Arabia in order to secure its influence during and after Assad’s reign.

Moreover, Iran’s consistent and successful effort to extend its influence over the crescent from the Gulf to the Mediterranean, which includes Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, adds huge strategic advantages to its regional outreach.

A nuclear-armed Iran will not only solidify its regional hegemony and ascendancy over the Sunni Arab states but recapture its historic importance, which was largely lost during the post-World War era and subsequent American dominance. Moreover, a nuclear Iran will allow it to intimidate its Sunni Arab neighbors and subordinate their political agenda to its own while neutralizing the nuclear threat of its archenemy Israel.

National Identity: What has further deepened Iran’s convictions to acquire nuclear weapons is its newly-born national identity as the Islamic Republic of Iran. Although Iran (Persia) has had a long history with a recognized national identity, it has not been ruled before by an Islamic clergy. As such, Iran’s national identity remains vulnerable because it is still in its formative stages and on the defensive as it has not, as yet, struck deep roots in a population with a considerable Western orientation.

The clergy’s intransigence, be it aggressive (Ahmadinejad) or smiling (Rouhani) reflects the protective cover for a consolidating national identity, and thus at heart a psychologically-based resistance to external pressure. Under these conditions, the nature of the discord between them and the US will carry an “us versus them” turn in a prejudiced and selective way.

For the Ayatollahs, the acquisition of nuclear weapons under the aegis of an Islamic Shiite regime would solidify, strengthen and allay the still-vulnerable national identity through direct association with the awesome power and prestige of having nuclear weapons.

Even though the Ayatollahs have insisted that their nuclear program is peaceful, they have made it a common cause as an integral component of national identity and have successfully mobilized the public to stand united behind the regime and defy Western powers, especially the US.

Resistance to change: The push for obtaining nuclear weapons is the clergy’s means by which it resists regime change. The Ayatollahs are convinced that Western powers, led by the US, are committed to regime change in Iran. They are terrified of that prospect because the very existence of Iran as an Islamic Republic is embedded in the longevity of current and successive regimes.

Iranians still recall with trepidation and venom the ouster of the Mosaddeq regime in 1953 by the CIA and are now determined not to allow a replay of such national humiliation by pursuing political and military strategies with nuclear weapons at its core. Therefore, Iran’s psychological resistance to change is directly related to its political mindset toward the US, which feeds into its perceptions that the US’ intention has and continues to be regime change.

In fact, if there was anything that trumps the powerful drive to acquire nuclear weapons it is retaining power, which is the heart and soul of the 1979 revolution. Iran has borrowed a page or two from the experiences of North Korea and Pakistan and is fully cognizant that once it reaches the breakout point, it will immunize itself from being attacked by the US and/or Israel.

Why then, in light of Iran’s long history of deception and defiance of six UN resolutions between 2006 and 2010 to halt its uranium enrichment program, has the interim agreement allowed Iran to have its nuclear infrastructure and uranium enrichment abilities left almost intact?

Tehran has secured its principle demand to enrich uranium and received badly-needed partial relief from the sanctions. It has opposed dismantling even a single centrifuge (which was agreed upon) and agreed merely to freeze its heavy water plants to produce plutonium, which is easily reversible. Although Iran agreed to roll back its stockpile of nearly 500 pounds of uranium enriched to 20% by degrading half to 5% and converting the rest to oxide, this process can also be overturned at will.

Iran’s acceptance of what Secretary of State John Kerry characterized in Geneva on November 24 as “unprecedented international monitoring” may end up only with “managed access.” Iran has yet to accept unannounced inspections of their most sensitive underground plants at Fordo and the Parchin Military Complex, where Iran is suspected to have experimented with nuclear devices.

Given Iran’s determination to acquire nuclear weapons, the interim agreement does not hold much hope that a final agreement will prevent Iran from reaching the nuclear threshold. To prevent Iran by diplomatic means from becoming a nuclear power and avoid the need to resort to the military option or end up with Iran in possession of nuclear weapons, the following measures can, at a minimum, improve the odds if carefully considered.

First is dismantling much of Iran’s nuclear facilities designed for the development of nuclear weapons. I could not elaborate on this critical requirement any better than former Secretaries of States Henry Kissinger and George Shultz, who stated in their column in the Wall Street Journalon December 2nd:

“If the six month “freeze” period secured in Geneva is to be something other than a tactical pause on Iran’s march toward a military nuclear capability, Iran’s technical ability to construct a nuclear weapon must be meaningfully curtailed in the next stipulated negotiation through a strategically significant reduction in the number of centrifuges, restrictions on its installation of advanced centrifuges, and a foreclosure of its route toward a plutonium-production capability.”

Second, the Obama administration must make it unambiguously clear to the Iranian authorities (preferably in private to spare Iran’s pride) that the US will not hesitate for a moment to re-impose the most crippling sanctions, with the overwhelming support of Congress, should Iran be caught cheating. Moreover, the Mullahs must believe that the US is prepared to resort to the military option to stop Iran’s drive to become a nuclear state by remaining militarily vigilant throughout the Gulf. In addition, the US’s support of the union of Gulf States, with centralized defense and military capabilities, could create another layer of deterrence against Iran’s ambition to become the region’s superpower.

Third, the US must warn Iranian officials that to prevent any miscalculations, they ought to cease and desist threatening the very existence of another UN member state and an ally – Israel. Tehran must understand that Israel will take such threats far more seriously should Iran reach the breakout point. The Obama administration must forcefully reject such threats in the future and warn Iran that the US cannot prevent Israel from taking any military action if it deems that its national security is in jeopardy.

Fourth, the Obama administration needs to insist that any lasting agreement must also ensure that Iran moderate its approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and end its military support of radical Islamists such as Hamas and Hezbollah, and other various terrorist groups which promote its political agenda. If Iran wishes to be a respected member of the international community it can no longer have it both ways; as such, a requirement must be integral to any new agreement.

Fifth, to allay Iran’s most alarming concerns, the Obama administration needs to assure the Iranians that the US does not seek regime change in Tehran, now or in the future. By virtue of its history, riches, culture and strategic importance, Iran will be accorded the respect it seeks and can play a significant and positive role on the international stage, from which it can greatly benefit without the possession of nuclear weapons.

Iran has a perfect face-saving way out because it has never admitted that it was seeking nuclear weapons and that its nuclear program was and still is for civilian purposes. Moreover, since the Iranian mindset is built around national pride, the US should not characterize any new agreement in terms of “winners and losers” but rather as a mutually interest-based agreement from which all sides emerge as winners.

I am not naïve to think that my “prescription” to end the nuclear impasse with Iran is simple and can be implemented with only American resolve. The religious belief of the clergy in Iran, their worldview and their place in it may blind them from seeing the light. Their religious convictions require no evidence, and as a result they may well continue the treacherous nuclear path to their own detriment.

But then again, if the Obama administration feels that there is even a faint chance to reach a lasting agreement with Iran, President Obama can improve the odds by insisting on the above conditions and satisfy itself and its allies that it has done all it could to prevent the military option.

Given Iran’s self-destructive instincts, however, and Obama’s perceived lack of credibility, especially in the wake of the Syrian debacle, there is plenty of room left for errors and miscalculations.

This may end up forcing the president to choose between the lesser of two evils: strike Iran’s nuclear installations or settle for containment. Either option bears potentially dire consequences for the United States, its regional allies, and Iran itself.

Browse articles by author

More Current Affairs

Jun 10th 2025
EXTRACT: "The MAGA world’s loathing of diversity and inclusion programs owes something to this type of thinking, as does the goal of purging universities of “anti-American” elements. The animus against foreign students, who bring enormous economic and cultural benefits to US higher education, is not only xenophobic, but hugely damaging to American soft power."
Nov 24th 2024
Extracts: "We all think, speak, and write within certain intellectual frameworks that we largely take for granted. But, eventually, the passage of time renders familiar categories and ideas obsolete. For example, who still talks about the “Soviet Union” today, apart from historians?" ------- "Trump won decisively despite his contempt for democratic institutions, his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, and his subsequent 34-count felony conviction. Though voters know about his chaotic approach to governance, his habitual mendacity, and his sinister immigration policies, he won every swing state. Even with full knowledge of who Trump is, more Americans voted for him than for Kamala Harris. We must not mince words: liberal democracy in the US has suffered a lethal blow. It will be under increasing pressure on both sides of the Atlantic, and there is no guarantee that it will survive. After all, can there be any future for the liberal West without the US as its leader? I believe the answer is no." ----- "If Europe fails to come together at this moment of tumultuous change, it will not get a second chance. Its only option is to become a military power capable of protecting its interests and securing peace and order on the world stage. The alternative is fragmentation, impotence, and irrelevance."
Nov 24th 2024
EXTRACTS: "When the US presidential election was called for Donald Trump, the yield on ten-year US government bonds increased from 4.3% to 4.4%, and the 30-year-bond yield rose from 4.5% to 4.6%, with both remaining at those levels ten days later." ----- " Clearly, investors expect the next Trump administration to produce higher government budget deficits and more debt. It is not difficult to see why. During Trump’s first term in office, he added $8 trillion to the national debt – all previous presidents combined had accumulated $20 trillion – despite having promised to run budget surpluses so large that they would eliminate the national debt within two terms." ----- "Supporters often say that a businessman like Trump or Musk will know how to put America’s fiscal house in order. But the smart money says they have no idea what they are doing."
Nov 13th 2024
EXTRACT: "For 2,300 years, at least since Plato’s Republic, philosophers have known how demagogues and aspiring tyrants win democratic elections. The process is straightforward, and we have now just watched it play out." ........ "As Jean-Jacques Rousseau argued, democracy is at its most vulnerable when inequality in a society has become entrenched and grown too glaring." ..... "From everything Trump has said and done during this campaign and in his first term, we can expect Plato to be vindicated once again. The Republican Party’s domination of all branches of government would render the US a one-party state. The future may offer occasional opportunities for others to vie for power, but whatever political contests lie ahead most likely will not qualify as free and fair elections."
Nov 3rd 2024
EXTRACT: "The likelihood of escalation in the coming weeks and months means that there will be economic and financial risks to manage. A large-enough Israeli strike on Iran could severely disrupt energy production and exports from the Gulf. If Iran gets desperate, it could try to mine the Gulf and block the Strait of Hormuz, while also striking Saudi oil facilities. In this scenario, the world would experience stagflationary shocks similar to those that followed the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the 1979 Iranian revolution."
Oct 9th 2024
EXTRACT: "The continuing cycles of violence can easily spiral out of control, precipitating a wider war involving nuclear powers. Moreover, Netanyahu’s goal of 'total victory' against an ideological movement cannot be achieved by military means alone." ..... "So long as both sides seek to inflict maximum damage on the other to right past wrongs, the violence will not end. Netanyahu may think that total victory is in sight, now that Hezbollah is badly damaged and Gaza reduced to rubble, but that is an illusion. All he has done is create more enemies who will want to restore their honor by killing in a war without end."
Oct 9th 2024
EXTRACTS: "Nasrallah was on a mission to destroy Israel. It was a mantle he had taken up from countless other Arab leaders, from Haj Amin al-Husseini, the grand mufti of Jerusalem who met with Adolf Hitler in 1941 to discuss the destruction of the Jews, to Azzam Pasha, the secretary-general of the Arab League who described the Arab invasion of the then-nascent Israel in 1948 as a 'war of annihilation'. Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser – an icon of pan-Arabism in the 1950s and 1960s – pledged more than once to 'destroy Israel'. Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein and the Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, who founded Fatah, nurtured their own dreams of liquidating the Jewish state." ...... "Alas, Israelis have built their own dangerous dream palace of 'total victory', erected on a foundation of nationalist fervor, religious messianism, and political intransigence. There is a scenario in which Israel’s military exploits change the region for the better. Unfortunately, far from being the standard-bearer for some enlightened political vision, Israel’s current government is committed to fighting a war on all fronts, with no view toward any political future that Israel’s neighbors could possibly accept."
Oct 8th 2024
EXTRACT: "But in the real world, slain leaders are replaced. Those who bury their dead do not forget or forgive, and those who have felt the punishment of arms do not forego weapons but embrace them. So it seems unlikely that’s how the story will end. Sadly, it’s far more likely it will never end."
Oct 3rd 2024
EXTRACT: ".....,Russia will probably spend about $190 billion, or 10% of GDP, on the war this year, and that figure presumably represents the peak, given the constraints imposed by Western financial sanctions. Whenever Russia can no longer finance a budget deficit, it will have to cut public expenditures, and its non-military outlays have already been pared to the bone."
Sep 12th 2024
EXTRACT: "Throughout recorded history, crises and tragedies have inevitably spurred apocalyptic interpretations that seek to imbue temporal catastrophes with some divine or redemptive meaning. One can see this in the doctrines of the major monotheistic religions, and even in modern totalitarian ideologies, such as communism and Nazism. One way or another, humans appear inclined to believe that, without Satan, there is no redeemer. To understand just how dangerous this logic can be, look no further than Gaza, where a tragedy of Biblical proportions is fueling the messianic hallucinations of Israel, Hamas, and American Christian evangelicals alike."
Aug 7th 2024
EXTRACT: "China knows that the war has had catastrophic consequences for both Russia and Ukraine. Estimates indicate that Putin’s conflict in Ukraine could cost Russia US$1.3 trillion (£1.0 trillion) and at least 315,000 in troop casualties. So, win or lose, the post-war damage to Russia would be immense. This is bad news for China. Not only will it have a weakened ally, but the west could then have a free hand to consolidate its resources in dealing with the 'Chinese threat'."
Jul 27th 2024
EXTRACT: "......, regardless of the folly of political violence, the attempt on Trump’s life was futile inasmuch as ridding America, and the world, of Trump, would by no means rid us of Trumpism, which was and remains a symptom, and not the root cause, of this country’s moral and epistemic decline. How else could so many millions of Americans support this man? No one can claim that they do not know what he stands for (insofar as he stands for anything other than himself) or what his intentions are: he has made it very clear that his second administration will be not only authoritarian, but fascist in rhetoric and deed.
Jul 17th 2024
EXTRACTS: "Iran unveiled a digital clock counting down the days to the destruction of Israel in 2040. The display, located in Tehran’s Palestine Square, embodies the Islamic Republic’s long-held commitment to annihilating the Jewish state. Some view this promise as a mere rhetorical exercise...." ----- "From Adolf Hitler to Vladimir Putin and even Osama bin Laden, history has taught us to take threats of ideologically inspired attacks at face value. " ---- "......., the key enabler of Iran’s war of attrition is, in fact, Israel’s own government. Netanyahu’s unrealistic goal of achieving 'a complete victory' in Gaza serves Iran’s strategy of miring Israel in an inconclusive conflict while orchestrating a long-term plan to destroy the Jewish state." ----- "It turns out that the only truly irrational, trigger-happy fanatics in this lethal equation are Netanyahu and his theo-fascist allies, who are determined to engage in an apocalyptic war in Gaza and Lebanon." ---- "These messianic hallucinators have a willing collaborator in Netanyahu. Together, they are doing more to annihilate the Jewish national project than Iran could ever hope to achieve on its own."
Jul 16th 2024
EXTRACTS: "In her dissenting opinion in Trump v. United States, Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor declared that with the majority’s ruling, 'the President is now a king above the law'. In this, she is wrong: the majority opinion has given the US president far more power than English kings had at the time of the American Revolution." ---- "In June 1686, 11 of the 12 hand-picked justices ruled in favor of the king. Echoing the king’s own solicitor, Sir Thomas Powys, the Lord Chief Justice George Jeffreys contended that if the king did not have leeway above the law, 'the preservation of the government' might be in jeopardy." ---- "In 1689, the English people roundly rejected such reasoning and asserted that their kings would thereafter be subject to the law. They set a precedent by removing James II from office. The Supreme Court’s decision goes beyond threatening more than two centuries of American jurisprudence; it overturns four centuries of Anglo-American jurisprudence. The Roberts majority did not give the president the power of an English king; it gave the president power that an English king could only covet."
Jul 4th 2024
EXTRACT: "Most American voters who believe that Trump is the best defender of democracy are not fascists, much less communists. The very thought would horrify them. But they almost surely have a strong opinion on who constitutes the true American people: God-fearing, hard-working, and most probably white. And they worry that these ordinary Americans are being displaced by illegal immigrants, and that their way of life is being threatened by new ideas about gender, race, and sexuality emerging from elite universities. Trump is stoking these fears and exaggerating these threats. His line that the US courts are attacking not only him, but every right-thinking American is horribly effective. Since he is heard as the true voice of the people, he is the purest democrat. As a result, liberal democracy might not withstand another four years of his rule."
Jul 3rd 2024
EXTRACT: "....the debate showed all too clearly that he is suffering cognitive decline and cannot possibly serve as a competent president for another four years. If Biden is true to his word, and stopping Trump from regaining the presidency is his overriding goal, he needs to announce that at the Democratic Convention in August, he will release his delegates from their obligation to vote for him, and instead ask them to vote for the candidate with the best chance of defeating Trump."
Jul 3rd 2024
EXTRACTS: "Both Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Sonia Sotomayor of the United States Supreme Court have just announced grand opinions trying to resolve the fundamental constitutional issues raised by former President Donald Trump’s claim to absolute immunity" ---- "According to Sotomayor, who wrote for the three dissenting justices, Roberts’ sweeping grant of immunity has 'no firm grounding in constitutional text, history, or precedent.' ” ----- "For what it’s worth, I think that Sotomayor is right and Roberts is wrong." ----"But for now, it is much more important to consider the objection raised by Justice Amy Coney Barrett to both Roberts’ constitutional glorification of the presidency and Sotomayor’s devastating critique of Roberts’ majority opinion." ---- "Barrett is right to ask why Roberts and Sotomayor did not join her in adopting the problem-solving approach that they have repeatedly endorsed in many other contexts." ---- "Roberts took the path that not only betrayed Founding principles, as Sotomayor argued, but also betrayed the very principles to which he has dedicated his entire career. "
Jul 1st 2024
EXTRACTS: "Netanyahu’s disdainful criticism of Biden. Netanyahu knows how indispensable the US is to Israel, as no country has provided Israel with more financial, military, and political support than the US. And no American president has ever been more supportive and committed to Israel's security than President Biden. But then, leave it to the most loathsome Netanyahu, who dares to criticize the president for suspending the shipment specifically of 2,000-pound bombs to continue with his devastating bombardment of Rafah that could indiscriminately kill thousands of innocent civilians." ---- "All Israelis who care about their country’s future must rise and demand the immediate resignation of this corrupt and brazen creature who inflicted untold damage on the only Jewish state, making it a pariah state."
Jun 12th 2024
EXTRACTS: "One of the more amusing exercises on the economic calendar is the International Monetary Fund’s annual review of the United States. Yet while everyone knows that the US government pays absolutely no heed to what the IMF has to say about its affairs, the Fund’s most recent Article IV review of the US economy is striking for one unexpected finding. Readers will be startled to learn that, in the IMF’s estimation, US government debt is on a sustainable path." ---- "What then could go wrong? Well, US institutions could turn out not to be so strong. Donald Trump has a personal history of defaulting on his debts. As William Silber has observed, Trump in a second presidential term could instruct his Treasury secretary to suspend payments on the debt, and neither Congress nor the courts might be willing to do anything about it. The gambit would be appealing to Trump insofar as a third of US government debt is held by foreigners. The damage to the dollar’s safe-asset status would be severe, even if Congress, the courts, or a subsequent president reversed Trump’s suspension of debt payments. Investors in US Treasuries would demand a hefty risk premium, potentially causing the government’s interest payments to explode."
Jun 9th 2024
EXTRACT: "An all-too-familiar specter is haunting Europe, one that reliably appears every five years. As citizens head to the polls to elect a new European Parliament, observers are once again asking whether far-right anti-European parties will gain ground and unite to destroy the European Union from within. To be sure, skeptics of this doomsday scenario have always argued that the far right will remain divided, because nationalist internationalism is a contradiction in terms. But it is more likely that specific policy disagreements – mainly over the Ukraine war – and drastically diverging political strategies will prevent Europe’s various far-right parties from forming a 'supergroup.' ”