Apr 18th 2013

Mastering The Nuclear Chess Game

by Alon Ben-Meir

A noted journalist and author, Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is professor of international relations and Middle East studies at the Center for Global Affairs at New York University. Ben-Meir holds a masters degree in philosophy and a doctorate in international relations from Oxford University. His exceptional knowledge and insight, the result of more than 20 years of direct involvement in foreign affairs, with a focus on the Middle East, has allowed Dr. Ben-Meir to offer a uniquely invaluable perspective on the nature of world terrorism, conflict resolution and international negotiations. Fluent in Arabic and Hebrew, Ben-Meir's frequent travels to the Middle East and meetings with highly placed officials and academics in many Middle Eastern countries including Egypt, Israel, Jordan, the Palestinian territories, Syria and Turkey provide him with an exceptionally nuanced level of awareness and insight into the developments surrounding breaking news. Ben-Meir often articulates

Iran may have not invented Chess, but it has nevertheless demonstrated unsurpassed skills in playing the nuclear chess game against the P5+1 (US, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany) and especially against the US. From the time it was discovered that Iran was operating a clandestine nuclear weapons program nearly two decades ago, Tehran has successfully outmaneuvered the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) while making significant advances in its research and development of its nuclear program.

Based on credible intelligence provided by the US and Israel, it is now believed that Iran is on the verge of acquiring the technology to assemble nuclear weapons in short order, or what is termed as “reaching the point of no return” within a year, according to US estimates made public in early March 2013. Tehran was able to advance to this level in spite of intense international pressure and mounting sanctions that have caused tremendous domestic economic pain and dislocation.

To prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, we should have a better understanding of Iran’s motivation behind its pursuance of a nuclear program and accordingly the negotiating strategy it has so dexterously pursued to achieve its objective.

In so doing, the Obama administration would be in a better position to assess what coercive measures are left at its disposal before resorting to the use of force, which is the least desirable option. There are several factors behind Iran’s nuclear ambitions:

For most Iranians the ability to acquire nuclear weapons provides a significant boost to theirnational pride. Historically, Iran (Persia) was a major power and many Iranians still yearn for the glory of the past, especially now that its historic rival Iraq (Babylon) has fallen under its sway.

Iran is situated in a dangerous and unstable neighborhood, with Pakistan and India in possession of nuclear weapons and Afghanistan in turmoil. A nuclear Iran will make it a credible power to be reckoned with, forcing other nations to carefully consider its strategic interests.

Iran’s national security concerns and sense of vulnerability in view of its enmity to US and regional concerns provide a powerful incentive to possess a nuclear arsenal and deter other countries from threatening its national security.

Iran is fully aware that nuclear powers are seldom challenged and prevent even traditional enemies in possession of nuclear weapons, such as the situation between India and Pakistan, from engaging in violent confrontation; North Korea offers a telling example.

A nuclear Iran would promote its ambition to become the region’s hegemon and substantially increase its influence over the much smaller Arab states in the area while amplifying its ability to intimidate its neighbors to follow its dictate.

In addition to having huge oil reserves, by joining the club of nuclear powers Iran wouldcommand international respect and allow it to become a global player that transcends Middle Eastern affairs.

Iran is determined to neutralize Israel’s nuclear advantage, and views the acquisition of nuclear weapons central to achieving this strategic objective.

As the only nuclear Shiite state, Iran would have a decisive advantage against its deadly rivals, the Sunni Arab world, as demonstrated by its unwavering support of Syria’s Assad regime to safeguard its Shiite crescent stretching from the Mediterranean to the Gulf.

Finally, Shiite Islam plays a significant role, as many Iranians believe that the return of theMahdi (which is weaved in Iran’s foreign policy) will occur only under an apocalyptic event that will lead to the world’s domination by Islam. A nuclear Iran is seen as a prerequisite in this regard.

In considering the above, it becomes clear why Iran pursues a negotiating strategy that fully corresponds to its objective to acquire nuclear weapons, and does so under extremely difficult conditions while demonstrating unsurpassed negotiating skills.

Playing for time: The Iranians are known to play for time and have successfully done so for more than a decade, especially because the P5+1 and particularly the US have not established and enforced a strict time limitation to the negotiating process.

Divide and conquer: Although the P5+1 want to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, Russia (nuclear technology) and China (oil) have different interests in Iran. Tehran has cleverly exploited the divergent interests of the six powers to its full advantage.

Making bogus compromises: Often, the Iranian representatives make a certain concession only to be reversed by Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei, or withdrawn altogether from the negotiating table to throw off their counterparts.

Sending mixed messages: It is customary for the Iranian negotiating representative to suggest a willingness to engage in serious negotiations but come to the talks with little or no offers to deliberately mislead and obscure their real intentions.

Demanding unacceptable compromises: The Iranians are known to offer conditional concessions in exchange, for example, lifting the sanctions first, knowing that it would simply be rejected in frustration by the US–a technique that allows Tehran to maintain the prospect of a diplomatic solution while it continues to advance its nuclear program.

Assuming positional bargaining: Iran has insisted that its right to enrich uranium on its soil is non-negotiable even though it is a non-starter for Washington, who along with Israel completely distrusts Tehran’s ultimate intentions.

Emulating North Korea: Notwithstanding the harsh international sanctions, Iran continues to defy the international community with near impunity by borrowing a page or two from the North Korean textbook to create the fact of their nuclear weapons while testing the US’ resolve.

Engaging in systematic deceit: Iran has regularly engaged in deceit and like quicksilver, it has been near impossible to pin it down to any proposal put on the table. This explains Iran’s refusal to allow the IAEA to inspect several suspected nuclear facilities, including Parchin and Fordow military bases.

Threatening massive retaliation: Finally, Iran mastered the art of using negotiations as a tool to advance its nuclear program while threatening to retaliate against the US and its allies, instilling a deep sense of global concerns should the conflict lead to a military confrontation.

The Obama administration should know by now that incremental sanctions (however painful) have failed, diplomacy will run its course sooner than later, if it has not already, and seeking a breakthrough through incentives has proven futile.

Meanwhile, Iran will continue to push forward with uranium enrichment and may well get to the point where North Korea currently stands, though without making bellicose statements or threatening its neighbors in order to deny the US the justification to attack its nuclear facilities.

To prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, a narrow window of opportunity remains for only a short period of time, provided that the US make four immediate and simultaneous moves:

First, impose real, crippling sanctions along the lines of preventing Iran from importingrefined gasoline (40% coming from India), creating economic havoc and popular unrest. Second, the US should take additional and unambiguous measures toward military preparedness, sending a clear signal to Tehran that as President Obama said and Joe Biden reiterated, the President of the US does not bluff.

Third, the administration should make it clear that while it cooperates with Israel, it is in no position to prevent Jerusalem from unilaterally striking Iran once Tehran comes close to the point of no return. Tehran is particularly concerned about Israel, who would be more eager to attack its nuclear facilities and draw the US into the military foray.

Finally, the Obama administration should secretly engage Iran in bilateral negotiations to end the nuclear impasse. Iran must fully understand that failing to reach an agreement in these talks will have dire consequences including regime change, which is the only concern that trumpsTehran’s desire to acquire nuclear weapons.

This would provide Iran with a face-saving way out, as Tehran has always denied any intention of acquiring nuclear weapons. Should such an agreement be reached, it could then be announced through the P5+1 talks or the IAEA.

Otherwise, the US will be left with two extremely bad choices: First, they can settle for containing Iran’s nuclear weapon program by developing an elaborate new regional security umbrella to deter Iran, which Israel may nevertheless reject. Second, President Obama will live up to his commitment to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities with all of its unforeseen consequences.

In either scenario the US will only take out the Queen, but on the Iranian nuclear chess board the King will remain standing.

Browse articles by author

More Current Affairs

Affluence is killing the planet, warn scientists
by Thomas Wiedmann, Julia K. Steinberger and Manfred Lenzen
Jun 25th 2020
EXTRACT: "The facts are clear: the wealthiest 0.54%, about 40 million people, are responsible for 14% of lifestyle-related greenhouse gas emissions, while the bottom 50% of income earners, almost 4 billion people, only emit around 10%. The world’s top 10% income earners are responsible for at least 25% and up to 43% of our environmental impact. Most people living in developed countries would fit into this category, meaning you don’t have to consider yourself rich in order to be globally affluent. Even many poorer people in wealthy countries have a disproportionately large and unsustainable resource footprint compared to the global average."
The Main Street Manifesto 
by Nouriel Roubini
Jun 24th 2020
EXTRACT: "To be sure, the American Dream was always more aspiration than reality. Economic, social, and intergenerational mobility have always fallen short of what the myth of the self-made man or woman would lead one to expect. But with social mobility now declining as inequality rises, today’s young people are right to be angry."
The Messiah of Mar-a-Lago
by Shlomo Ben Ami
Jun 19th 2020
EXTRACT: "There is only one way to repair America’s reputation, regain the trust of allies, and ensure that the US can act as an effective counterweight to China: address the root causes of the cracks that Trump’s disastrous presidency has exposed and widened. This is in line with the vision advanced in 2011 by two military strategists, Captain Wayne Porter and Colonel Mark Mykleby, using the pseudonym “Mr. Y.” Porter and Mykleby argued that national security depends not only on the capacity to respond to threats from foreign powers, but also – and perhaps more important – on the “application of credible influence and strength.” That influence, in turn, depends on America’s success in providing a “pathway of promise” for US citizens – and a model for the world."
The Republicans’ Treasonous Betrayal Of The American People
by Alon Ben-Meier
Jun 14th 2020
EXTRACT: "The most critical question then is not how far Trump will go to promote his treasonous agenda, but for how long Republican leaders will silently accept and subserviently enable Trump to destroy the basic moral tenets and values on which this Union was founded, and which they swore to uphold and protect...............Of course, shame on us if we continue to be surprised by Republicans’ continuing silence, because as we all know, even when presented with overwhelming evidence that Trump committed crimes against the American people, Trump’s Republican stooges in the Senate exonerated him following impeachment almost unanimously...................The Republican leadership, to be sure, has made its bed. It has committed moral suicide. History will judge them harshly for their treason and betrayal of the nation, including all of those who have lived and died throughout our history to foster and protect our safety, integrity, and freedom."
America’s Calamity 
by Elizabeth Drew
Jun 9th 2020
EXTRACT: " Governments can do nothing about the quotidian offenses of living as a black person in America – the empty taxis that refuse to stop, being mistaken for employees in supermarkets, the myriad intentional and unintentional insults. Many now in the streets won’t be satisfied unless the result of this national spasm is improved schools, health care, and job opportunities for minorities – a fair shake for black people. What will happen when America once again falls short of honoring its professed values?."
For Beijing, Rewriting the Rules is an Art Form
by Daniel Wagner
Jun 8th 2020
EXTRACT: "It should be apparent to most observers of international relations that the Chinese government wants the world to play by its own set of rules. Beijing appears to believe that China’s rise and its assumption of global leadership positions are an inevitable extension of earlier periods in its history, when it was the world’s most powerful country. This is often at odds with the global norms that have been established – with China’s participation, it is worth adding – since the 1940s. While this is clearly the Chinese century, few outside of China would agree that Beijing’s global leadership is either inevitable or necessarily desired – certainly not on the Chinese government’s terms."
Another Long, Hot Summer in America 
by Ian Buruma
Jun 4th 2020
EXTRACT: "Many Americans are clearly horrified by their president’s crass and incendiary words. But will their disapproval be offset by anxiety about violent social unrest? Will age-old racial prejudices, often unspoken, or even acknowledged, still make them vote for the false security of a coarse white bully?  Much will depend on how hot this summer gets. If people think rationally in November, it is hard to imagine that enough of them would vote to keep this appalling administration in power for another four years. But fear is reason’s worst enemy."
America’s Mis-Police State 
by Jeffrey Sommers
Jun 2nd 2020
EXTRACT: "For starters, many Americans have accepted that they live in a winner-takes-all society of deepening inequality. While the wealth and incomes of those at the very top continue to grow, tens of millions of Americans struggle to afford health care, childcare, and other basic goods. This story has been told many times over. But what often goes unremarked is that the responsibility for managing the social costs of this system has been offloaded onto the police."
How to understand Obamagate – Donald Trump's latest conspiracy theory
by Marc Tuters and Peter Knight
May 27th 2020
EXTRACT: "Obamagate is the latest conspiracy theory to be pushed by US president, Donald Trump. It started on the morning of May 10, when Trump retweeted the word “OBAMAGATE!” By the next day, the Obamagate hashtag had accrued over two million tweets and another four million by the end of the week. Trump has repeatedly reused the slogan on his Twitter feed since and it has been promoted by right-wing influencers including Glenn Beck, Sean Hannity and many others....You are not alone if you’re confused by what Obamagate actually is or why Trump is tweeting about it."
Our Post-Covid-19 Future is Already Here
by Daniel Wagner
May 23rd 2020
EXTRACT: "Not all aspects of our near and medium-term future can be foreseen at this juncture of the Covid-19 pandemic, but we now know enough to make some hypotheses about what is likely to change, based on what has already changed. The future is sure to look very different than it did before this decade began, regardless of whether a vaccine is found. If a vaccine is found, it is unlikely to be tested, approved, manufactured, and efficiently distributed to the world’s population of nearly 8 billion people for years. Bearing in mind that there is no vaccine for any coronavirus, what is likelier is that the world will be living with Covid-19 as a part of our ecosystem for many years to come – possibly permanently. That means that our new normal is probably already here."
Europe’s Hamiltonian Moment 
by Anatole Kaletsky
May 21st 2020
EXTRACT: "LONDON – The new Franco-German proposal for a €500 billion ($547 billion) European recovery fund could turn out to be the most important historic consequence of the coronavirus. It is even conceivable that the deal struck between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron might one day be remembered as the European Union’s “Hamiltonian moment,” comparable to the 1790 agreement between Alexander Hamilton and Thomas Jefferson on public borrowing, which helped to turn the United States, a confederation with little central government, into a genuine political federation."
The Fabulist 
by Elizabeth Drew
May 19th 2020
EXTRACT: "In April 2011, Donald Trump, then considering a run for the presidency the following year, said that he had sent investigators to Hawaii to check out rumors that President Barack Obama wasn’t born there, but in Kenya, which would disqualify him for the presidency. His investigators, Trump declared, “cannot believe what they’re finding.” I can find no record of Trump being challenged on this outlandish claim at the time. In the fall of 2016, Trump, now the Republican presidential nominee, was convinced by his staff that he had to abandon this “birther” nonsense. He did so reluctantly, charging – also with no evidence – that such rumors had actually been initiated by his opponent, Hillary Clinton. There, in a nutshell, is Trump’s modus operandi: he’s not just a liar but a fabulist, seemingly unconcerned with whether his fictions will be exposed. If they are, the world simply moves on as he invents fresh distractions."
The Fable of the Chinese Whistleblower 
by Stephen S. Roach and Weijian Shan 
May 19th 2020
EXTRACT: "Li, a doctor, was purportedly silenced and chastised by Chinese officials for warning on December 30, 2019, about a new virus in the Wuhan hospital where he worked. When it became evident that he was on to something serious – so serious, in fact, that it ultimately killed him – the Chinese government changed its tune and celebrated Li’s bravery. If only that had happened sooner, the argument goes, the world would have avoided this horrific pandemic.................... But that’s not what happened."
Top 5 Reasons Trump’s West Wing May be Emerging as a Coronavirus Epicenter
by Juan Cole
May 9th 2020
EXTRACT: "Jana Winter and Hunter Walker at Yahoo News broke the story that 11 Secret Service agents have tested positive for the coronavirus. Likely some of them served in the West Wing. This week it was revealed at that a US military valet who brought Trump food came down with the virus, sending Trump into a “lava level” rage. Two aides to Vice President Mike Pence have tested positive. Some observers are afraid that the virus is circulating in the West Wing itself."
Covid-19 and China’s Bat Virus Research
by Daniel Wagner
May 6th 2020
EXTRACT: "There has been much debate around the world about the source of the COVID-19 pandemic, ranging from a laboratory to Wuhan’s seafood market to some other form of animal-to-human transmission. While there is no proof (yet) that the virus may have been inadvertently released from one of the two biological research laboratories located at Wuhan, there is evidence that viral release has occurred in the past, and a host of additional data that point to a laboratory connection. "
The Case for Deeply Negative Interest Rates 
by Kenneth Rogoff
May 4th 2020
EXTRACT: "A better bet is that nothing will be the same. Wealth will be destroyed on a catastrophic scale, and policymakers will need to find a way to ensure that, at least in some cases, creditors take part of the hit, a process that will play out over years of negotiation and litigation. For bankruptcy lawyers and lobbyists, it will be a bonanza, part of which will come from pressing taxpayers to honor bailout guarantees. Such a scenario would be an unholy mess."
The Virus that Changed the World 
by Joschka Fischer
Apr 29th 2020
EXTRACT: "We need the twenty-first century’s two superpowers, America and China, to set the example, by burying their rivalry and uniting all of humankind around a collective response to the current crisis, and to those that await us. As COVID-19 has taught us, the old international system can no longer guarantee humankind’s safety and security. We cannot afford to be taught that lesson twice."
Trump’s Cruelest Month 
by Elizabeth Drew
Apr 29th 2020
EXTRACT: "It should come as no surprise that Trump has abused his power in orchestrating the federal response to the pandemic. For example, he made sure that Colorado received 100 much-needed ventilators, and made sure that Colorado voters knew it, in order to help re-elect troubled incumbent Republican senator Cory Gardner.  More alarming, Trump effectively threatened to wage germ warfare against US Postal Service workers by denying them congressionally approved virus-mitigation aid unless the USPS quadrupled rates on packages. Trump’s actual target was Jeff Bezos, the CEO of Amazon and owner of The Washington Post."
The Coming Greater Depression of the 2020s 
by Nouriel Roubini
Apr 28th 2020
EXTRACT: "These ten risks, already looming large before COVID-19 struck, now threaten to fuel a perfect storm that sweeps the entire global economy into a decade of despair. By the 2030s, technology and more competent political leadership may be able to reduce, resolve, or minimize many of these problems, giving rise to a more inclusive, cooperative, and stable international order. But any happy ending assumes that we find a way to survive the coming Greater Depression."
Monetary Finance Is Here 
by Aidar Turner
Apr 26th 2020
EXTRACT: "In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the US Federal Reserve will buy unlimited quantities of Treasury bonds, the Bank of England will purchase £200 billion ($250 billion) of gilts, and the European Central Bank up to €750 billion ($815 billion) of eurozone bonds. Almost certainly, central banks will end up providing monetary finance to fund fiscal deficits. The only question is whether they should make that explicit."