Oct 24th 2009

Mending a strained alliance

by Alon Ben-Meir

 

Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a retired professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He taught courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies for over 20 years.

Earlier this month, what should have been a multinational exhibit of military cooperation between the Turkish Air Force and its counterparts in the US, Italy, and Israel, has become yet another political snub in the growing public rift between Turkey and Israel. The joint exercise, which takes place every few years, was cancelled indefinitely after Turkey withdrew Israel's participation, causing the US and Italy to forgo the exercise in response. This public rebuff is one of many in a string of events that has shown Turkey's visceral frustration with Israel's handling of its incursion into Gaza late last year.


While Turkey and Israel continue to enjoy a strong alliance and their commercial and trade relations remain uninterrupted, the public slights have undoubtedly put a strain on their bilateral relationship, especially after Turkey relied heavily on the Israel lobby to prevent the Armenian genocide bill from being passed in the US Congress only two years ago. But what is Turkey gaining from these public outcries? Unless Turkey wants to seriously undermine its relations with Israel and its Western allies, it should start to act judiciously as a partner to both Israel and the Arab world.

Turkey's ability to lead in the future will depend on its capacity to balance its relations with the powers in its diverse neighbourhood-Iran, Syria, Israel, Russia, and Greece all being immediate neighbours-without trading one bilateral relation for another. Turkey views itself as a strategic power with the capacity to maintain regional stability, not only in the Middle East, but as a bridge between East and West. But after the infamous Davos incident in January, where Prime Minister Recep Erdogan walked out on a panel with Israeli President Shimon Peres after stating, "When it comes to killing, you know well how to kill," Turkey has looked less like a skilful diplomatic mediator and more like an instigator. At this point, after earning the praise of the international community for its efforts as a member of NATO and the G-20, Turkey has too much at stake to start playing the blaming game in this intractable 61-year-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Much of Turkey's animosity towards Israel is likely out of frustration, after Israel's failure to deliver an initial agreement with Syria from negotiations Turkey so painstakingly mediated throughout 2008. Furthermore, Netanyahu has refused to resume the negotiations from where they were left off. But Turkey should not underestimate its role as the only strong political ally of Israel, Iran, and the Arab world. Apart from government and diplomatic relations, Turkey has been the number one tourist destination for both Israelis and Iranians, though since January it has seen a huge downturn in Israeli tourists. To sabotage its unique standing in this delicate global order at such a crucial time would be a major strategic blunder. Sooner rather than later, Turkey should realize that this isn't a fight worth having at this particular junction, especially when Israel has seen an increase in cooperation from its Arab neighbours since the Gaza war.

Many recall January 2008, when Sudan's Omar al-Bashir came to Ankara as a guest of the Turkish government after being accused by the ICC of heinous war crimes in Darfur. Only months later, Turkey participated in joint naval exercises with Israel, a tradition that has continued even after the Gaza war. The point is that Turkey has chosen a path as an ally to the many feuding nations it sits between, and in recent years has seen its integrality as an international partner skyrocket. It even made the final step of reconciliation with the Armenians this month, establishing diplomatic ties and reopening their shared border. So why now, should Turkey find it necessary to undermine its historic and valuable ties with Israel, who has considered Turkey a partner of the utmost importance since its foundation as a state? As Turkey found out through the US and Italy's immediate withdrawal from the military exercise, a rift with Israel can have destructive ramifications in its ties with the West. At this point in time, in its push for EU membership, and as it seeks to work with the US over its Kurdish issue, a public schism with Israel will only weaken the Turkish case. And as the international community -including the Arab states-unites around the Iranian nuclear threat which is as worrisome to Turkey, it is in Ankara's best interest to cooperate.

To be sure, the importance of Turkish-Israeli relations cannot be overstated enough, as Turkey and Israel share not only critically important strategic relations but a deep affinity that goes back between the Jews and the Ottoman Empire. Although Turkish-Israeli military and trade relations remain uninterrupted, it is not a minute too early to end public condemnations and begin mending the relationship; any further deterioration will serve neither Turkish nor Israeli interests now or in the future. Israelis have good reason to feel indignant, but they should not allow a temporary political mishap to obscure Turkey's contribution to regional peace and prosperity. And likewise, Turkey must not allow the significant relations with Israel to be marred by unfortunate chain of political mishaps.

Ankara must demonstrate that on the occasion of its proud 86th anniversary it can rise to the occasion and stretch its hand to the Israelis in friendship and show publicly that it values and reciprocates its partnership with the Jewish state. The Israelis must now show magnanimity by accepting this invitation to join their Turkish friends and allies to celebrate the anniversary of the Turkish Republic on October 29 and use the occasion as a symbol of renewed partnership.

Browse articles by author

More Current Affairs

The Case for Ukraine's EU Membership
by Charles Tannock
Jul 2nd 2022
EXTRACT: "...EU enlargement is essentially a political decision by member states, based on a multitude of considerations that sometimes include dramatic events. Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine is such a turning point."
A Stagflationary Debt Crisis Looms 
by Nouriel Roubini
Jun 29th 2022
EXTRACT: "Most market analysts seem to think that central banks will remain hawkish, but I am not so sure. I have argued that they will eventually wimp out and accept higher inflation – followed by stagflation – once a hard landing becomes imminent, because they will be worried about the damage of a recession and a debt trap, owing to an excessive build-up of private and public liabilities after years of low interest rates." ----- "There is ample reason to believe that the next recession will be marked by a severe stagflationary debt crisis. As a share of global GDP, private and public debt levels are much higher today than in the past, having risen from 200% in 1999 to 350% today (with a particularly sharp increase since the start of the pandemic). Under these conditions, rapid normalization of monetary policy and rising interest rates will drive highly leveraged zombie households, companies, financial institutions, and governments into bankruptcy and default."
When Central Bankers Become the Target 
by Howard Davies
Jun 28th 2022
EXTRACT: "It is tempting to conclude that today’s central bankers are damned if they do and damned if they don’t. Maybe if they sit tight, they will ride out the storm. Then-Fed Chair Paul Volcker was Public Enemy Number One in the United States in the early 1980s, when he squeezed post-oil-shock inflation out of the system with double-digit interest rates. But in his later years he was revered, and became a national treasure, called on to advise successive presidents in any financial emergency. ----- But central bankers would be wise not to assume that their reputations will automatically recover, and that the status quo ante will be restored. We live in a more disputatious age than the 1980s. Public institutions are more regularly challenged and held to account by far less reverential legislators." ----- "Moreover, former central bankers have joined the chorus of critics. Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, breaking the unwritten rule not to reproach one’s successors, has said that today’s Fed made “a mistake” by responding slowly to inflation. And Bailey’s immediate predecessors, Mervyn King and Mark Carney, have weighed in, too, with challenges to the BOE’s policy. The fabric of the central banking fraternity is fraying."
Ukraine war: fears that Belarus might invade on Russia’s side are growing
by Stefan Wolff and Tatyana Malyarenko
Jun 25th 2022
EXTRACT: "Public opinion in Belarus remains firmly against involvement into the war with Ukraine. Moreover, according to a Chatham House survey, 40% of Belarusians do not support Russia’s war, compared to 32% who do, while around half of those questioned see predominately negative consequences of the war for Belarus (53%) and for themselves (48%). The Belarusian military and security services are also aware of the determined and skilful resistance that Ukrainian forces have put up against Russia and the risks that they would therefore be running if they entered the war against Ukraine. This, in turn, means that the risk to Lukashenko himself remains that he might lose his grip on power, a grip which depends heavily on the loyalty of his armed forces." ---- "Ultimately, Belarus may not be on the brink of being plunged into war quite yet, but its options to avoid such a disaster are narrowing."
Why Putin’s policy towards Ukraine has strong parallels to Stalin’s post WWII plan for Germany
by Paul Maddrell
Jun 20th 2022
EXTRACT: "Russification (the policy of enforcing Russian culture on populations) appears to be being reinforced by ethnic cleansing. Last month the Ukrainian parliament’s commissioner for human rights, Liudmyla Denisova, informed the United Nations’ High Commissioner for Refugees, Filippo Grandi, that 1.3 million Ukrainians, including 223,000 children, had been forcibly deported to Russia."
A Treasonous President And A Nation In Peril
by Alon Ben-Meir
Jun 11th 2022
EXTRACT: "If Trump had his way, then Vice-President Pence would have also broken his oath to the constitution and derailed the certification of electoral votes. Our continued existence as a Republic might very well have hung on Pence’s actions that day. The mob’s response was to call for Pence to be hanged, and a noose and scaffold was erected apparently for that very purpose. What was Trump’s reaction when he was told that the mob was calling for Pence’s summary execution? His words were: “Maybe our supporters have the right idea.” Mike Pence “deserves” it."
Ukraine: Russian attitudes to Ukrainians can help to explain the atrocities
by Kseniya Oksamytna
Jun 10th 2022
EXTRACTS: "Speaking to journalist Sophie Raworth on the BBC’s Sunday Morning show recently, former war crimes prosecutor Sir Howard Morrison, now an advisor to the Ukraine government, highlighted the dangers posed by the negative – often insulting and dehumanising – statements made by some Russian politicians and media personalities about Ukraine and its people." ---- "The conditions and attitudes described by Morrison have existed for centuries: Russians have viewed Ukrainians as inferior since before the Soviet era." ----- "And, as Morrison said, stereotyping and denigrating a people as inferior or lacking agency makes atrocities and looting more likely to happen, as we are seeing in Ukraine."
Ukraine: international pressure needs to be on Moscow, not Kyiv
by Stefan Wolff and Tatyana Malyarenko
Jun 9th 2022
EXTRACT: "Unless Russia realises that the west is willing and able to push back, a new, stable security order in Europe will not be possible. Concessions to Russia, by Ukraine or the EU and Nato, are not the way to achieve this. That this has been realised beyond Ukraine’s most ardent supporters in the Baltic states, Poland, the UK and the US is clear from German support for strengthening Nato’s northern flank and a general increase in Nato members’ defence spending."
Stop Blaming the Russian Soul 
by Ian Buruma
Jun 8th 2022
EXTRACT: "Highly civilized people can turn into barbarians when demagogues and dictators exploit their fears and trigger their most atavistic instincts. Rape, torture, and massacres often happen when soldiers invade foreign countries. Commanding officers sometimes actively encourage such behavior to terrorize an enemy into submission. And sometimes it occurs when the officer corps loses control and discipline breaks down. Japanese and Germans know this, as do Serbs, Koreans, Americans, Russians, and many others."
Kissinger is dead wrong about the Russian war against Ukraine
by Alexander J. Motyl
Jun 1st 2022
EXTRACTS: "Like Metternich, Kissinger commits the fatal error of believing that a few wise policymakers can impose their will on the world. Worse, he believes they can halt domestically generated change and the power of nationalism. Many years ago, this is what Senator William Fulbright termed the “arrogance of power.” This approach failed in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. It is also doomed to fail in Russia and Ukraine." ------ "Not surprisingly, Kissinger misunderstands Russia. He appears to believe that, because Russia has been an “essential part of Europe” for over four centuries, it is therefore fated to remain so for the foreseeable future.The claim is completely at odds with history." ---- "Finally, Kissinger misunderstands the implications of his own analysis for Western relations with Russia. “We are facing,” he said, “a situation now where Russia could alienate itself completely from Europe and seek a permanent alliance elsewhere." ---- "But what’s so bad about Russia’s isolating itself from Europe and becoming a vassal state of China? "
China’s population is about to shrink for the first time since the great famine struck 60 years ago. Here’s what it means for the world
by Xiujian Peng
Jun 1st 2022
EXTRACTS: "According to the latest figures from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, China’s population grew from 1.41212 billion to just 1.41260 billion in 2021 – a record low increase of just 480,000, a mere fraction of the annual growth of eight million or so common a decade ago." ----- "China’s total fertility rate (births per woman) was 2.6 in the late 1980s – well above the 2.1 needed to replace deaths. It has been between 1.6 and 1.7 since 1994, and slipped to 1.3 in 2020 and just 1.15 in 2021."
Ukraine war: despite Russia’s success in Donbas, this is only the end of the beginning
by Frank Ledwidge
Jun 1st 2022
EXTRACTS: "Casualties are very high. A very conservative estimate of overall Russian losses is that they have lost more troops killed since February 24 than in ten years of fighting in Afghanistan. This implies well over 40,000 men taken out of the fight, including the wounded." ----- "Away from the cauldron of Donbas, Belarus has been rattling its somewhat rusty sabre by deploying troops to its border with Ukraine. This is unlikely to trouble Kyiv. The Belarus president, Alexander Lukashenko, is well aware that he may need them at home to shore up his shaky regime."
Don't Bet on a Soft Landing 
by Nouriel Roubini
May 27th 2022
EXTRACTS: "Monetary policymakers are talking tough nowadays about fighting inflation to head off the risk of it spinning out of control. But that doesn’t mean they won’t eventually wimp out and allow the inflation rate to rise above target. Since hitting the target most likely requires a hard landing, they could end up raising rates and then getting cold feet once that scenario becomes more likely. Moreover, because there is so much private and public debt in the system (348% of GDP globally), interest-rate hikes could trigger a further sharp downturn in bond, stock, and credit markets, giving central banks yet another reason to backpedal." ----- "The historical evidence shows that a soft landing is highly improbable. That leaves either a hard landing and a return to lower inflation, or a stagflationary scenario. Either way, a recession in the next two years is likely."
Jerome Powell's Volcker Deficit 
by Stephen S. Roach
May 26th 2022
EXTRACT: "No, I am not arguing that Powell needs to replicate Volcker’s tightening campaign. But if the Fed wishes to avoid a replay of the stagflation of the late 1970s and early 1980s, it needs to recognize the extraordinary gulf between Volcker’s 4.4% real interest rate and Powell’s -2.25%. It is delusional to believe that such a wildly accommodative policy trajectory can solve America’s worst inflation problem in a generation."
Ukraine war: rising food prices are not the only global economic fallout
by Stefan Wolff and Tatyana Malyarenko
May 26th 2022
EXTRACT: "It will be critical in this context how China will act and whether it will prioritise its economic interests (continuing trade with Europe and the US) or current ideological preferences (an alliance with Russia that makes the world safe for autocracies)."
‘Wine time Friday’ and invites for 200: five of the most interesting findings from Sue Gray’s partygate report
by Chris Stafford
May 26th 2022
EXTRACT: "The document is full of embarrassing and damming stories of illegal gatherings and bad behaviour. There was “excessive alcohol consumption”, a regular fixture referred to as “wine time Fridays” and altercations between staff. Aides are shown to have left Downing Street after 4am (and not because they had worked into these early hours). Cleaning staff and junior aides were abused, and a Number 10 adviser is on record before the infamous “bring your own booze” party...."
The Imperfect Shape of Peace in Ukraine 
by Shlomo Ben-Ami
May 17th 2022
EXTRACT: "But even a resounding Russian defeat is an ominous scenario. Yes, under such circumstances – and only such circumstances – Putin might be toppled in some kind of coup led by elements of Russia’s security apparatus. But the chances that this would produce a liberal democratic Russia that abandons Putin’s grand strategic designs are slim. More likely, Russia would be a rogue nuclear superpower ruled by military coup-makers with revanchist impulses. Germany after World War I comes to mind."
Ukraine: Nato and the US aim to destroy the Russian military – it looks as if they may have the means to do it
by Frank Ledwidge
May 4th 2022
EXTRACT: ".....a remarkable transformation is taking place in Ukraine’s army amounting to its de facto military integration into Nato. As western equipment filters through to the frontline, Nato-standard weaponry and ammunition will be brought into Ukrainian service. This is of far higher quality than the mainly former Soviet weapons with which the Ukrainians have fought so capably. The longer this process continues and deepens, the worse the situation will be for the already inefficient Russian army and air force."
Tough Times Ahead for Russian Studies
by Alexander J. Motyl
May 3rd 2022
EXTRACT: " The conventional wisdom among students of the Russian arts and sciences is that Russian culture is “great.” The problem is that, while there are surely great individuals within Russian culture, the culture as a whole cannot avoid responsibility for Putin and his regime’s crimes." ---- "Russianists will not be able to avoid examining themselves and their Russian cultural icons for harbingers of the present catastrophe. What does it mean that Fyodor Dostoevsky was a Russian chauvinist? That Nikolai Gogol and Anton Chekhov were Ukrainian? That Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn was an unvarnished imperialist? That Aleksandr Pushkin was a troubadour of Russian imperial greatness? May these writers still be read without one eye on the ongoing atrocities in Ukraine?"
Russia’s long journey from partner of the west to pariah reflects a huge failure of its diplomacy
by Anna-Sophie Maass
Apr 29th 2022
EXTRACT: "The following day Lavrov met his Eritrean counterpart, Osman Saleh, in Moscow. Eritrea was the only African country to vote against the UN resolution condemning the invasion. In this refusal to condemn Russia, Eritrea was joined by only Belarus, North Korea and Syria. Even longstanding allies such as Cuba and China abstained. It’s an indication of Russia’s increasingly limited diplomatic options as this war continues."