Aug 28th 2014

Now That The Guns Have Been Silenced

by Alon Ben-Meir

 

Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a retired professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He taught courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies for over 20 years.

The new ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has immediately raised the same old question: will it last, or is it merely just another pause, providing the prelude for the next round of fighting à la previous ceasefires? My reading of the situation that brought both sides to agree to suspend violence on an open-ended basis suggests otherwise. I believe the current ceasefire is different as it was achieved under completely different circumstances and may well last.

To begin with, there are no winners or losers. Hamas scored a significant political victory as it maintained its ability to fire rockets at Israel up to the last minute before the ceasefire was put into effect, but also suffered massive losses in men and materials.

Israel decisively won the military campaign by inflicting huge pain and destruction incomparable to the previous two violent encounters with Hamas, but lost politically by creating the perception that Hamas achieved its objectives even though it fell far short of its original demand to lift the blockade altogether.

That said, what has made the ceasefire possible is that both sides have concluded that the continuation of violence will not improve their positions and may well make it considerably worse. The impact of the Israeli and Palestinians’ public outcry and the insurmountable pressure on their respective governments was critical to bring an end to the seemingly unending war.

Prime Minister Netanyahu did not want to keep bombarding Gaza, incur huge collateral damage, and subject Israel to mounting international condemnation as the inadvertent civilian death toll was escalating.

The invasion and reoccupation of Gaza could have ended Hamas’ provocations, its ability to fire thousands more rockets, and terrorizing of the Israelis, but the cost would have been enormous in blood and treasure.

Netanyahu was correct in rejecting calls from several misguided extremist right-wing members of his cabinet, Bennett and Lieberman in particular, to invade Gaza, who failed to grasp the enormous dire ramifications of such reckless adventure.

"Netanyahu was correct in rejecting calls from several misguided extremist right-wing members of his cabinet, Bennett and Lieberman in particular, to invade Gaza, who failed to grasp the enormous dire ramifications of such reckless adventure."

They foolishly ignored the fact that Israel cannot maintain the occupation indefinitely; instead, it would only help galvanize the rise of a new generation of Palestinian extremists and set the stage for more blood and tears.

Conversely, other than depleting Hamas’ stock of rockets by two-thirds, tens of thousands of houses were destroyed and entire neighborhoods lay in ruins while over 250 fighters and over 1,400 civilians were killed.

I maintain, however, that this latest round of hostilities has ironically produced a positive effect in that both sides have come to the realization that neither can defeat the other both politically and militarily with impunity, and that other options must now be explored to end the vicious cycle of violence.

The fact that the Palestinian Authority (PA) under the leadership of Mahmoud Abbas has assumed an important role in facilitating the ceasefire and planning to place its security forces to guard the crossing to Gaza from Israel and Egypt, as required by the terms of the ceasefire, bodes well for the future.

The PA has infused new life into the unity government and strengthened the moderate Palestinian voices, which has significant implications for future Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations.

Another important development is the renewed realization that Egypt’s role now and in the future is indispensable. Notwithstanding the enmity between Hamas and Egypt under President Sisi, Hamas’ leaders understand anew that their political relevance in the Israeli-Palestinian context and their prospect for a better future depends, to a large extent, on Israel’s and Egypt’s willingness to cooperate.

I am convinced that the war and its suspension is a wakeup call resonating differently than in previous times. To be sure, I believe that in the wake of the Gaza war and the basis on which the ceasefire was established, a new momentum for peace negotiations might have been created.

Netanyahu and the Israeli public, in particular, recognize that regardless of how formidable the Israeli army may be, the use of force has its limits. They are now more likely to be disposed to negotiate in earnest than at any other time since Netanyahu came to power.

"Netanyahu and the Israeli public, in particular, recognize that regardless of how formidable the Israeli army may be, the use of force has its limits."

For that to happen and produce real progress, the two outside players to the conflict, the US and the Arab states, must now use their leverage on Israel and the Palestinians respectively to move the peace process forward.

Without too much fanfare, the Obama administration ought to quietly exert pressure on the Netanyahu government to begin serious bilateral negotiations with the Palestinians.

Equally, Abbas, in my view, has emerged from the latest Hamas-Israel conflagration as the ultimate winner. He demonstrated his unwavering commitment to peace and remained above the fray throughout the violent campaign.

Abbas’ enhanced political stature and strength, buttressed by domestic and international support, provides him further leverage in determining the Palestinians’ future political agenda, the centrality of which is the establishment of a Palestinian state by political means.

Abbas might heed the US’ advice, with the support of Saudi Arabia and Egypt, to postpone his decision to turn to the UN seeking international support for the establishment of a Palestinian state.

He is in a better position to do so as he can now negotiate with Israel from a position of strength in the context of the Arab Peace Initiative (API) by insisting on commencing the negotiations over borders.

Given the turmoil throughout the Middle East, which is affecting every Arab state in the region, there is no better time to reintroduce the API.

The greatest threat to the Arab states today is not Israel but Islamic extremism, i.e. ISIS, Jabhat al-Nusra, Al-Qaeda, and Shiite Iran, which Israel also fears greatly.

"The greatest threat to the Arab states today is not Israel but Islamic extremism, i.e. ISIS, Jabhat al-Nusra, Al-Qaeda, and Shiite Iran, which Israel also fears greatly."

What is needed today is a grand gesture by Egypt, who has assumed anew its leadership role in the Arab world, developed close relations with Israel and successfully mediated the ceasefire.

As there is tremendous support for the API in Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia should formally put the Initiative back on the table and invite Israel to embrace it and begin comprehensive negotiations to end the Arab-Israeli conflict, making the Gaza war the catalyst for peace.

"As there is tremendous support for the API [Arab Peace Initiative] in Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia should formally put the Initiative back on the table..."

I am happy to be accused of having pipedreams time and again. But it is unforgivable to let over 2,100 Palestinians (including nearly 500 children) and 69 Israelis die in vain, only to prepare for the digging of new graves for those who are yet to be senselessly slain.

Browse articles by author

More Current Affairs

The Myth of the Unprecedented 
by Stephen S. Roach
Dec 21st 2023
EXTRACT: "Shocks are here to stay, and our task is not to predict the next one – although someone always does – but to sharpen our focus on resilience. Staying the course of politically mandated policies while minimizing the inevitable dislocations is easier said than done. But that is no excuse to fall for the myth of being victimized by the unprecedented."
No World Order 
by Joschka Fischer
Dec 21st 2023
EXTRACTS: "A new world is indeed emerging. It will be characterized not only by more interdependencies, but also by more insecurity, danger, and war. Stability in international relations will become a foreign concept from a bygone age – one that we did not fully appreciate until it was gone."
Putin's Search for a Usable Past 
by Vitaly Dymarsky
Dec 14th 2023
EXTRACT: "Yet one must never forget that Putin is first and foremost an intelligence officer whose dominant trait is suspicion."
Will High Interest Rates Trigger a Debt Disaster? 
by James K. Galbraith
Dec 2nd 2023
EXTRACTS: "In a recent commentary for the Financial Times, Martin Wolf trots out the specter of a 'public-debt disaster,' that recurrent staple of bond-market chatter. The essence of his argument is that since debt-to-GDP ratios are high, and eminent authorities are alarmed, 'fiscal crises' in the form of debt defaults or inflation “loom. And that means something must be done.' ----- "If, as Wolf fears, 'real interest rates might be permanently higher than they used to be,' the culprit is monetary policy, and the real risk is not rich-country public-debt defaults or inflation. It is recession, bankruptcies, and unemployment, along with inflation." ---- "Wolf surely knows that the proper remedy is for rich-country central banks to bring interest rates back down. Yet he doesn’t want to say it. He seems to be caught up, possibly against his better judgment, in bond vigilantes’ evergreen campaign against the remnants of the welfare state."
Putin's Killer Patriotism 
by Nina L. Khrushcheva
Nov 27th 2023
EXTRACT: "The first Russia, comprising those living in Russia’s two biggest cities, Moscow and Saint Petersburg, can pretend there is no war at all." ---- "Then there is the other Russia, the one you find in small towns and villages scattered across the country’s massive territory. Here, the Ukraine war is a source of patriotic pride,"
The Rage of the Outsiders 
by Ian Buruma
Nov 27th 2023
EXTRACTS: "I interviewed Wilders in 2005 " ---- "Frankly, I thought he was a bore, with no political future, and did not quote him in my book. Like most people, I was struck by his rather weird hairstyle. Why would a grown man and member of parliament wish to dye his fine head of dark hair platinum blond?" ----- "His maternal grandmother was partly Indonesian" ----- "Eurasians, or Indos as they were called, were never fully accepted by the Indonesians or their Dutch colonial masters. They were born as outsiders." ---- "Ultra-nationalists often emerge from the periphery – Napoleon from Corsica, Stalin from Georgia, Hitler from Austria." ---- "Henry Brookman founded the far-right Dutch Center Party to oppose immigration, especially Muslim immigration. Brookman, too, had a Eurasian background, as did another right-wing politician, Rita Verdonk, who founded the Proud of the Netherlands Party in 2007." ---- "A politician who might fruitfully be compared to Wilders is former British Home Secretary Suella Braverman. As a child of immigrants – her parents are double outsiders, first as Indians in Africa and then as African-Indians in Britain – her animus toward immigrants and refugees “invading” the United Kingdom may seem puzzling. But in her case, too, a longing to belong may play a part in her politics."
Biden and Xi Pick the Low-Hanging Fruit
by Stephen S. Roach
Nov 19th 2023
EXTRACT: "The good news is that the San Francisco summit was indeed an improvement on last year’s meeting. Above all, both sides took the preparations far more seriously this time. It wasn’t just the high-level diplomatic engagement that resumed in the summer, with visits to Beijing by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo, and climate envoy John Kerry. Equally important was identifying in advance the key issues on which the two leaders could cooperate and eventually agree."
Preparing for a Russian Nuclear Meltdown 
by Bennett Ramberg
Nov 11th 2023
EXTRACT: "It would be naive to hope that the Russian government or US diplomatic outreach would prevent nuclear war in the event of a serious threat to Putin’s political survival. The risk that Russia’s Ukraine misadventure could culminate in nuclear nihilism demands nothing less than a systemic review of America’s options."
The Economic Consequences of the Gaza War 
by Nouriel Roubini
Nov 11th 2023
EXTRACT: " Hamas’s barbaric massacre of at least 1,400 Israelis on October 7, and Israel’s subsequent military campaign in Gaza to eradicate the group, has introduced four geopolitical scenarios bearing on the global economy and markets. As is often the case with such shocks, optimism may prove misguided."
Certain Uncertainty in the US Bond Market 
by Barry Eichengreen
Nov 10th 2023
EXTRACT: "The last two years have been catastrophic for investors in US Treasury bonds. By one measure, 2022 was the worst year for such investors since 1788. Bond prices are poised to fall again in 2023, making this the first time in US history that they declined for three consecutive years. But now the “smart money” is jumping back in."
The Looming China-Japan Face-Off
by Chris Patten
Nov 6th 2023
EXTRACTS: "China’s economic slowdown could lead the CPC to embrace a militant form of Chinese nationalism in an effort to maintain public loyalty. This would spell trouble for Taiwan, the Asia-Pacific region as a whole, and China itself in the long run. Given the threat posed by China’s assertiveness, it is no surprise that Japan is increasing its defense budget and that other countries have decided to follow America’s lead and explore ways to support Asia’s liberal democracies." .... "The difference between China’s and Japan’s economic trajectories raises the question: Can a corrupt Leninist regime outperform a free society? Whatever the answer, China is facing an uphill battle."
Russian Life Imitates Dystopian Art
by Nina L. Khrushcheva
Nov 2nd 2023
EXTRACT: "Of course, Putin owes his authoritarian mandate to Russians themselves. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russians – reeling from rapid, profound economic changes and the new culture of consumerist individualism – grew nostalgic for the 'strong' state. Their superpower status, historic breakthroughs in space, and grand victories on the battlefield were all long gone. Trading their new freedoms for the promise of renewed imperial glory seemed like a good deal." ----- "After Stalin, the only time the state engaged so openly in such violent repression was under Yuri Andropov, who headed the KGB in the 1970s before becoming General Secretary of the Communist Party in 1982 (he died in 1984). -- Putin, who regards Andropov as a personal hero, has reinstated the Andropov-era 'disciplinary check-ups' of cultural institutions." ------ "We are dealing with people who want 'full revenge for the fall of the Soviet empire.' The empire they want to build will include Andropov-style control over every aspect of Russian life, as well as a grander claim of being anointed by God. Like the Orwellian equation “2+2=5,” it is a story that you would have to be insane – or brutally compelled – to believe."
Solar power expected to dominate electricity generation by 2050 – even without more ambitious climate policies
by Nadia Ameli, Femke Nijsse and Jean-Francois Mercure
Oct 27th 2023
EXTRACT: "The cost of electricity from solar plants has experienced a remarkable reduction over the past decade, falling by 89% from 2010 to 2022. Batteries, which are essential for balancing solar energy supply throughout the day and night, have also undergone a similar price revolution, decreasing by the same amount between 2008 and 2022. ---- These developments pose an important question: have we already crossed a tipping point where solar energy is poised to become the dominant source of electricity generation? This is the very question we sought to address in our recent study."
Hubris Meets Nemesis in Israel 
by Shlomo Ben-Ami
Oct 9th 2023
EXTRACT: "Sooner or later, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s destructive political magic, which has kept him in power for 15 years, was bound to usher in a major tragedy. A year ago, he formed the most radical and incompetent government in Israel’s history. Don’t worry, he assured his critics, I have “two hands firmly on the steering wheel.” But by ruling out any political process in Palestine and boldly asserting, in his government’s binding guidelines, that “the Jewish people have an exclusive and inalienable right to all parts of the Land of Israel,” Netanyahu’s fanatical government made bloodshed inevitable."
Hamas’ Brutal Attack Could Have Been Avoided
by Alon Ben-Meier
Oct 9th 2023
EXTRACTS: "....whereas Israel can prevail militarily over any of its enemies, albeit at an increasing toll in blood and treasure, it cannot stop the most dangerous threat of all—the deadly erosion, resulting from its continuing brutal occupation, of that moral foundation on which the country was established." --- "....the Israeli public must demand the immediate resignation of Prime Minister Netanyahu."
American Tactics vs. Chinese Strategy 
by Stephen S. Roach
Sep 27th 2023
EXTRACT: "......today’s American body politic has little patience for long-term thinking. This was not always the case. George Kennan, first as a diplomat and later as an academic, devised the containment strategy that the United States used against the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Andrew Marshall, as the head of the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment, pushed the envelope on US military strategy. And Henry Kissinger, of course, was the ultimate practitioner of what has been dubbed “Grand Strategy.” "
Down on the Biden Economy
by James K. Galbraith
Sep 23rd 2023
EXTRACT: "In a recent CNN interview, Paul Krugman of The New York Times finds it hard to understand why ordinary American voters do not share his euphoric view of US President Joe Biden’s goldilocks economy – which appears to be neither hot nor cold. Inflation is falling, unemployment remains low, the economy is growing, and stock-market valuations are high. So why, Krugman asks, do voters give Biden’s economy a lousy 36% approval rating?" .... "what matters to working people is not the monthly or yearly price change taken alone. What matters is the effect on purchasing power and living standards over time. Whether these are rising or falling depends on the relationship of prices to wages. When wage growth exceeds price increases, times are generally good. When it doesn’t, they aren’t."
How Global Currencies End 
by Barry Eichengreen
Sep 14th 2023
EXTRACT: "The fundamental lesson, then, is that the issuer of an incumbent international currency has it within its power to defend or neglect that status. Thus, whether the dollar retains its global role will depend not simply on US relations with Russia, China, or the BRICS. Rather, it will hinge on whether the US brings its soaring debts under control, avoids another unproductive debt-ceiling showdown, and gets its economic and political act together more generally."
A Smidgen of Hope 
by Chris Patten
Aug 31st 2023
EXTRACT: "TOULOUSE – The days between Christmas and the New Year often prompt many of us to reflect on the problems facing the world and to consider what we can do to improve our own lives. But I typically find myself in this contemplative state at the end of my summer holiday, during the dog days of August. After several weeks of relaxation – reading books, taking leisurely walks, and drifting in a swimming pool – I am more open to contemplating the significant challenges that will likely dominate discussions over the coming months and pondering how I can gain a better understanding of the issues at stake."
The US Must Not Personally Humiliate Putin 
by Keren Yarhi-Milo
Aug 30th 2023
EXTRACT: "To the extent that international relations is an extension of interpersonal relations, how leaders publicly talk about their adversaries is important. US rhetoric about Putin, as much as shipments of F-16s, can push him – and thus the war – in various directions."