May 14th 2009

Obama's Two-State Challenge

by Alon Ben-Meir

 

Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a retired professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He taught courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies for over 20 years.

President Obama's May 18th meeting with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will introduce a new dimension to the long standing American-Israeli alliance. The changing circumstances in the Middle East and the potentially diverging views each leader holds in connection with the Arab-Israeli conflict could make finding common ground more challenging than in the past. To preserve the integrity of the bilateral relations, both leaders can be expected to engage in some serious give and take. President Obama is likely to insist that there
must be significant progress made in the Arab-Israeli peace process, especially regarding the Palestinian front. Similarly, Netanyahu, a master tactician, will find a way to accommodate the President while also exacting assurance that the US will deal pointedly with the Iranian nuclear threat.

The United States' commitment to Israel's national security is embedded in the American psyche and transcends shared values or an influential lobby. A long history of moral commitment to a homeland for the Jews, strategic cooperation, evangelical grass-root support, cultural and political affinity have all cemented the relationship over the years, making Israel the closest US ally perhaps with the exception of Great Britain. That being said, however militarily powerful Israel might be, the country's ultimate security still depends on the United States and only together can they fashion a solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict while safeguarding Israel's national security. This has guided previous American Presidents and will certainly guide President Obama--no Israeli prime minister is oblivious to this reality.

The United States' dedication to the two-state solution is not a new policy and it has been central to the Road Map, Oslo accords, Madrid Peace Conference, and to every interim agreement between Israel and the Palestinians and previous American administrations. Mr. Netanyahu cannot simply deny or defer the discussion in hopes of persuading or coercing the Palestinians and the Arab states to settle for much less. President Obama finds himself in a unique position to push for the resumption of the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations not only because he feels committed to the idea, but because of the conversion of events and developments that offer both the opportunity for a solution and also bear ominous implications if nothing is done.

Mr. Obama has inherited the wrath of the Arab and Muslim world, precipitated mainly by his predecessor's policies: two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and a third shaping up in Pakistan, a potentially nuclear Iran and the continuing rise in extremism, terrorism and Jihadi movements. By every conceivable account the Israeli-Palestinian discord feeds into these violent conflicts, making it impossible for any American President to articulate practical solutions without
attending to the Israeli-Palestinian issue first. Neither Netanyahu nor any of his coalition partners can avoid this reality. Obama faces an international community that was less than supportive of Israel's recent military incursion into Gaza, and allies who want to see once and for all a final solution for the Palestinian people. For President Obama to unravel some of these menacing
developments with the support of any international partners, he must first put out the Arab-Israeli fires.

Driven by their concern over Iran's nuclear program, the growing Sunni-Shiite schism, and the threat of Islamic extremism, the Arab states--for the first time since the creation of Israel in 1948--appear ready to negotiate in honest a comprehensive peace deal with Israel. Anyone who underestimates the significance of the Arab Peace Initiative in this regard misses the historic dimension of the Initiative, which offers Israel the ultimate security it seeks. Fortunately it
was not missed by President Obama. The President's embrace of the Initiative, which he expressed personally to Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah, is pivotal to changing the dynamics of the conflict and reaching a solution. For Israel, this represents nothing less than a revolutionary transformation in the Arab states' attitude and it must find a way to capitalize on its long-term implications.

President Obama is as keen as Mr. Netanyahu that Iran's nuclear program is, at a minimum, politically destabilizing and may indeed pause a threat to Israel's national security. To suggest however that a resolution to Iran's nuclear ambition must take precedence over a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is based on a false premise. As long as the Palestinian conflict persists, one can count on Tehran to fan the flames and continue to undermine the prospect of a comprehensive solution which will have to include Syria.

In one form or another, President Obama's commitment to pursue the Israeli-Palestinian track has already paid some dividends. Hamas leader Khaled Meshal--under pressure from the Arab states and certainly in a nod to Mr. Obama--has indirectly supported the idea of a two-state solution by supporting a Palestinian state based on 1967 borders. This development considerably improves the prospect of a unity Palestinian government that can speak in one voice, and
has the potential to deliver on a long-term ceasefire. Hamas is here to stay and it is now impracticable to count them out of the equation on any peace agreement. Netanyahu can take solace in the fact that Hamas moderated its stance under his watch and respond with a favorable gesture, especially now that Hamas has suspended all acts of violence against Israel.

As he understands Syria's central role in any future Arab-Israeli negotiations, President Obama's outreach to Damascus is most significant and overdue. Damascus is ready and eager to resume, this time directly, serious peace negotiations with Israel while seeking normal relations with the United States. Surely the price tag is the return of the Golan Heights--a price that Israel will have to pay if it ever chooses to end the Arab-Israeli conflict. But for Mr. Obama, this also represents an historic opportunity not only to end the Israeli-Syrian conflict but forge a grand regional security arrangement that would address Iran's ambitions. Indeed, only a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace that can eventually draw in Iran will usher in a period of real calm and open the door to credible talks about a Middle East free of nuclear arms.

In the end, the incredible bond between Israel and the United States will prevail, as it is stronger than any one administration or leader. Obama has the maneuverability to push on Netanyahu because it is guaranteed that the US would never compromise Israel's security. It is with the Arab states that the US has lost major capital, and President Obama knows that if he does not deliver soon, he can risk losing any partners in peace. If he cannot regain the confidence of
Arab leaders in countries like Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, the US will have another major conflict on its hands.

There is no doubt that the discussions between the two leaders will be tough, but neither can lose sight of what is really at steak here. Netanyahu knows only too well that in the final analysis, only a comprehensive peace will offer Israel the ultimate security it seeks. President Obama sees an historic opportunity to achieve just that, while both understand the ominous implications if they fail.

If you wish to comment on this article, you can do so on-line.

Should you wish to publish your own article on the Facts & Arts website, please contact us at info@factsandarts.com



Browse articles by author

More Current Affairs

Jun 11th 2022
EXTRACT: "If Trump had his way, then Vice-President Pence would have also broken his oath to the constitution and derailed the certification of electoral votes. Our continued existence as a Republic might very well have hung on Pence’s actions that day. The mob’s response was to call for Pence to be hanged, and a noose and scaffold was erected apparently for that very purpose. What was Trump’s reaction when he was told that the mob was calling for Pence’s summary execution? His words were: “Maybe our supporters have the right idea.” Mike Pence “deserves” it."
Jun 10th 2022
EXTRACTS: "Speaking to journalist Sophie Raworth on the BBC’s Sunday Morning show recently, former war crimes prosecutor Sir Howard Morrison, now an advisor to the Ukraine government, highlighted the dangers posed by the negative – often insulting and dehumanising – statements made by some Russian politicians and media personalities about Ukraine and its people." ---- "The conditions and attitudes described by Morrison have existed for centuries: Russians have viewed Ukrainians as inferior since before the Soviet era." ----- "And, as Morrison said, stereotyping and denigrating a people as inferior or lacking agency makes atrocities and looting more likely to happen, as we are seeing in Ukraine."
Jun 9th 2022
EXTRACT: "Unless Russia realises that the west is willing and able to push back, a new, stable security order in Europe will not be possible. Concessions to Russia, by Ukraine or the EU and Nato, are not the way to achieve this. That this has been realised beyond Ukraine’s most ardent supporters in the Baltic states, Poland, the UK and the US is clear from German support for strengthening Nato’s northern flank and a general increase in Nato members’ defence spending."
Jun 8th 2022
EXTRACT: "Highly civilized people can turn into barbarians when demagogues and dictators exploit their fears and trigger their most atavistic instincts. Rape, torture, and massacres often happen when soldiers invade foreign countries. Commanding officers sometimes actively encourage such behavior to terrorize an enemy into submission. And sometimes it occurs when the officer corps loses control and discipline breaks down. Japanese and Germans know this, as do Serbs, Koreans, Americans, Russians, and many others."
Jun 1st 2022
EXTRACTS: "Like Metternich, Kissinger commits the fatal error of believing that a few wise policymakers can impose their will on the world. Worse, he believes they can halt domestically generated change and the power of nationalism. Many years ago, this is what Senator William Fulbright termed the “arrogance of power.” This approach failed in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. It is also doomed to fail in Russia and Ukraine." ------ "Not surprisingly, Kissinger misunderstands Russia. He appears to believe that, because Russia has been an “essential part of Europe” for over four centuries, it is therefore fated to remain so for the foreseeable future.The claim is completely at odds with history." ---- "Finally, Kissinger misunderstands the implications of his own analysis for Western relations with Russia. “We are facing,” he said, “a situation now where Russia could alienate itself completely from Europe and seek a permanent alliance elsewhere." ---- "But what’s so bad about Russia’s isolating itself from Europe and becoming a vassal state of China? "
Jun 1st 2022
EXTRACTS: "According to the latest figures from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, China’s population grew from 1.41212 billion to just 1.41260 billion in 2021 – a record low increase of just 480,000, a mere fraction of the annual growth of eight million or so common a decade ago." ----- "China’s total fertility rate (births per woman) was 2.6 in the late 1980s – well above the 2.1 needed to replace deaths. It has been between 1.6 and 1.7 since 1994, and slipped to 1.3 in 2020 and just 1.15 in 2021."
Jun 1st 2022
EXTRACTS: "Casualties are very high. A very conservative estimate of overall Russian losses is that they have lost more troops killed since February 24 than in ten years of fighting in Afghanistan. This implies well over 40,000 men taken out of the fight, including the wounded." ----- "Away from the cauldron of Donbas, Belarus has been rattling its somewhat rusty sabre by deploying troops to its border with Ukraine. This is unlikely to trouble Kyiv. The Belarus president, Alexander Lukashenko, is well aware that he may need them at home to shore up his shaky regime."
May 27th 2022
EXTRACTS: "Monetary policymakers are talking tough nowadays about fighting inflation to head off the risk of it spinning out of control. But that doesn’t mean they won’t eventually wimp out and allow the inflation rate to rise above target. Since hitting the target most likely requires a hard landing, they could end up raising rates and then getting cold feet once that scenario becomes more likely. Moreover, because there is so much private and public debt in the system (348% of GDP globally), interest-rate hikes could trigger a further sharp downturn in bond, stock, and credit markets, giving central banks yet another reason to backpedal." ----- "The historical evidence shows that a soft landing is highly improbable. That leaves either a hard landing and a return to lower inflation, or a stagflationary scenario. Either way, a recession in the next two years is likely."
May 26th 2022
EXTRACT: "No, I am not arguing that Powell needs to replicate Volcker’s tightening campaign. But if the Fed wishes to avoid a replay of the stagflation of the late 1970s and early 1980s, it needs to recognize the extraordinary gulf between Volcker’s 4.4% real interest rate and Powell’s -2.25%. It is delusional to believe that such a wildly accommodative policy trajectory can solve America’s worst inflation problem in a generation."
May 26th 2022
EXTRACT: "It will be critical in this context how China will act and whether it will prioritise its economic interests (continuing trade with Europe and the US) or current ideological preferences (an alliance with Russia that makes the world safe for autocracies)."
May 26th 2022
EXTRACT: "The document is full of embarrassing and damming stories of illegal gatherings and bad behaviour. There was “excessive alcohol consumption”, a regular fixture referred to as “wine time Fridays” and altercations between staff. Aides are shown to have left Downing Street after 4am (and not because they had worked into these early hours). Cleaning staff and junior aides were abused, and a Number 10 adviser is on record before the infamous “bring your own booze” party...."
May 17th 2022
EXTRACT: "But even a resounding Russian defeat is an ominous scenario. Yes, under such circumstances – and only such circumstances – Putin might be toppled in some kind of coup led by elements of Russia’s security apparatus. But the chances that this would produce a liberal democratic Russia that abandons Putin’s grand strategic designs are slim. More likely, Russia would be a rogue nuclear superpower ruled by military coup-makers with revanchist impulses. Germany after World War I comes to mind."
May 4th 2022
EXTRACT: ".....a remarkable transformation is taking place in Ukraine’s army amounting to its de facto military integration into Nato. As western equipment filters through to the frontline, Nato-standard weaponry and ammunition will be brought into Ukrainian service. This is of far higher quality than the mainly former Soviet weapons with which the Ukrainians have fought so capably. The longer this process continues and deepens, the worse the situation will be for the already inefficient Russian army and air force."
May 3rd 2022
EXTRACT: " The conventional wisdom among students of the Russian arts and sciences is that Russian culture is “great.” The problem is that, while there are surely great individuals within Russian culture, the culture as a whole cannot avoid responsibility for Putin and his regime’s crimes." ---- "Russianists will not be able to avoid examining themselves and their Russian cultural icons for harbingers of the present catastrophe. What does it mean that Fyodor Dostoevsky was a Russian chauvinist? That Nikolai Gogol and Anton Chekhov were Ukrainian? That Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn was an unvarnished imperialist? That Aleksandr Pushkin was a troubadour of Russian imperial greatness? May these writers still be read without one eye on the ongoing atrocities in Ukraine?"
Apr 29th 2022
EXTRACT: "The following day Lavrov met his Eritrean counterpart, Osman Saleh, in Moscow. Eritrea was the only African country to vote against the UN resolution condemning the invasion. In this refusal to condemn Russia, Eritrea was joined by only Belarus, North Korea and Syria. Even longstanding allies such as Cuba and China abstained. It’s an indication of Russia’s increasingly limited diplomatic options as this war continues."
Apr 24th 2022
EXTRACT: "Although the milestone lasted only for a brief time, it points to a future in which California runs on 100% wind, solar, hydro and batteries, a future that will certainly arrive even faster than the state plans. As it is, California is ahead of its green energy goals." ...... "A world of 100% green energy and electric cars is not only a healthier and more comfortable world, it is a world where oil and gas dictators like Vladimir Putin are defunded."
Apr 17th 2022
EXTRACT: "Kazakhstan’s authorities have also showed uncharacteristic leniency in allowing public rallies in support of Ukraine. Thousands of protesters holding banners reading “Russians, leave Ukraine”, “Long Live Ukraine” and “Bring Putin to trial” marched across the capital, Almaty, wrapping monuments to Lenin and other Soviet-era figures with yellow and blue balloons symbolising the Ukrainian flag."
Apr 15th 2022
EXTRACT: "People’s identification with the Soviet Union appears to have a clear and growing basis in Russian public opinion. Surveys we have conducted throughout the Putin period show that Soviet identification among the general population – something that had been steadily declining after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 – began to increase in 2014, when the Russian government annexed Crimea and supported rebellions in the Ukrainian regions of Luhansk and Donetsk. By 2021, almost 50% of those surveyed identified with the Soviet Union rather than the Russian Federation."
Apr 13th 2022
EXTRACT: "Worse yet, the Hungarian government has effectively been helping Putin by prohibiting the shipment of weapons to Ukraine across its borders. Hungarian public TV spreads Russian disinformation day and night. The day before the election, an assembly of ordinary people expressing solidarity with Ukraine was framed on state television as a “pro-war rally.” "
Apr 13th 2022
EXTRACT: "It may well be that the Russian army’s fate has already been sealed in what is likely to be a long war. The single qualification to this may be that Russia could default to escalation using “weapons of mass destruction” of one form or another – whether tactical nuclear warheads or chemical weapons."