Jul 10th 2014

The Old World’s New Roles

by Joseph S. Nye

Joseph S. Nye is aprofessor at Harvard University and the author of the forthcoming book Presidential Leadership and the Creation of the American Era.
CAMBRIDGE – China’s rise has raised many questions for the West, with some wondering whether it is set to usurp a struggling Europe’s global leadership role. As one columnist put it, “there is nothing much European governments can do in East Asia, save serve as marketing managers for their domestic businesses.” With neither the diplomatic weight nor the military heft to make an impression in the region, Europe had better leave the heavy lifting to the United States. But this does not have to be the case.

For Europe, the implications of China’s rise are far-reaching, beginning with the United States’ strategic “pivot” toward Asia. After more than 70 years as a top US priority, Europe is beginning to lose its privileged position in the eyes of American policymakers. Moreover, European sales of high-tech dual-use products that complicate America’s security role in Asia is bound to create friction.

Nonetheless, warnings that the Atlantic partnership is eroding are unduly dire. Tellingly, US President Barack Obama’s administration has replaced the term “pivot,” which implies a turn away from something, with “rebalancing.” This change reflects a recognition that China’s increasing economic dominance does not negate the importance of the European Union, which remains the world’s largest economic entity and a leading source of economic innovation, not to mention values like the protection of human rights.

This is not to say that Asia’s rise will not demand adjustments. When the Industrial Revolution began, Asia’s share of the global economy began to decline from more than 50% to just 20% by 1900. By the second half of this century, Asia is expected to recover its former economic dominance – that is, account for 50% of global output – while lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty.

This power shift – perhaps the most consequential of the twenty-first century – implies serious risks. Historians often warn that the fear and uncertainty generated by the emergence of new powers like China can trigger serious conflict, like that which Europe experienced a century ago, when Germany overtook the United Kingdom in industrial production.

With Asia riven by territorial disputes and historical tensions, maintaining a stable security balance will not be easy. But there are levers in place that can help.

In the 1990s, when US President Bill Clinton’s administration was considering how to respond to China’s increasing economic might, some urged a policy of containment. Clinton rejected that advice: It would have been impossible to forge an anti-China alliance, given the enduring desire of China’s neighbors to maintain good relations with it; more important, such a policy would have guaranteed future enmity with China.

Instead, Clinton chose a policy that could be called “integrate and insure.” While China was welcomed into the World Trade Organization (WTO), America revived its security treaty with Japan.

If China pursues a “peaceful rise,” its neighbors will focus on building strong economic relationships with it. If it throws its weight around – which some say is implied by its recent actions on the Indian border and in the East and South China Seas – its neighbors will seek to balance its power, with an American naval presence offering backup.

Where does Europe fit into this picture? For starters, it should monitor and restrain sensitive exports to avoid making the security situation more dangerous for the US. Even in trading terms, Europe has an interest in regional stability and secure sea lanes.

Furthermore, Europe can contribute to the development of the norms that shape the security environment. For example, Europe can play an important role in reinforcing a universal interpretation of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, rather than China’s idiosyncratic version – especially given that the US has not even ratified the treaty.

Contrary to the claims of some analysts, China is not a revisionist state like Nazi Germany or the Soviet Union, eager to overthrow the established international order. Indeed, it is not in China’s interest to destroy international institutions – such as the United Nations, the WTO, and the International Monetary Fund – that have helped to facilitate its rise. Given Europe’s leading roles in such institutions, it can help China gain the multilateral legitimacy that it seeks, in exchange for responsible behavior.

Though China is not attempting to upend the global order, it is now undergoing a profound – and destabilizing – transformation. With the rise of transnational issues like climate change, terrorism, pandemics, and cyber crime – brought about by rapid technological progress and social change – power is being diffused not among states, but among a wide range of non-governmental entities. Addressing these challenges will require broad international cooperation, with China, the US, and Europe each playing an important role.

Finally, there is the question of values. Europe, together with the US, has already resisted Chinese (and Russian) demands for greater Internet censorship. And European countries like Norway and Germany have willingly taken economic hits in the name of human rights.

While it is impossible to predict how Chinese politics will evolve, other countries’ experiences suggest that political change often occurs when per capita income reaches roughly $10,000. If such change does occur, Europe will have an opening to promote its core values even more effectively.

Whether China’s economic interest in an impartial world order based on the rule of law will lead to greater protection of individual rights remains to be seen. Only China will decide that. But Europe can make a strong case.




Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2014.
www.project-syndicate.org

 


This article is brought to you by Project Syndicate that is a not for profit organization.

Project Syndicate brings original, engaging, and thought-provoking commentaries by esteemed leaders and thinkers from around the world to readers everywhere. By offering incisive perspectives on our changing world from those who are shaping its economics, politics, science, and culture, Project Syndicate has created an unrivalled venue for informed public debate. Please see: www.project-syndicate.org.

Should you want to support Project Syndicate you can do it by using the PayPal icon below. Your donation is paid to Project Syndicate in full after PayPal has deducted its transaction fee. Facts & Arts neither receives information about your donation nor a commission.

 

 

Browse articles by author

More Current Affairs

Mar 4th 2009

REYKJAVIK - No one yet has any real idea about when the global financial crisis will end, but one thing is certain: government budget deficits are headed into the stratosphere. Investors in the coming years will need to be persuaded to hold mountains of new debt.

Mar 2nd 2009

There was no gasp, merely a lingering sigh that came with the announcement that the vast bulk of US combat forces would be leaving Iraq by August 31, 2010, with the final departures taking place at the end of December 2011.

Mar 1st 2009

LONDON - Bipartisanship seems to have taken a drubbing in Washington since President Barack Obama got to the White House.

Feb 28th 2009

Presenting a new and earthy face of French cinema, the outsider candidate "Séraphine" won seven awards at the Césars, the annual French film competition, including best film and best actress of 2008.

Feb 26th 2009

MUNICH - To paraphrase Winston Churchill, never have so many billions of dollars been pumped out by so many governments and central banks. The United States government is pumping $789 billion into its economy, Europe $255 billion, and China $587 billion.

Feb 23rd 2009

Feb 20th 2009

NEW YORK - The world has yet to achieve the macroeconomic policy coordination that will be needed to restore economic growth following the Great Crash of 2008.

Feb 20th 2009

LONDON - "Enrich yourselves," China's Deng Xiaoping told his fellow countrymen when he started dismantling Mao Zedong's failed socialist model.

Feb 20th 2009

NEW YORK – The euro suffers from structural deficiencies. It has a central bank, but it does not have a central treasury, and the supervision of the banking system is left to national authorities.

Feb 19th 2009
The recent slowdown, it is suggested here, was not caused so much by the collapse of a housing bubble or mortgage delinquency, as is frequently claimed, but rather by losses of capital due to high costs for energy and operation of the financial sector.
Feb 19th 2009

Kaing Guek Eav, known to many as Duch, was not exceptional for being knee-deep in the blood of Cambodia's victims. Most members of the Khmer Rouge were expert in taking lives rather than improving them.

Feb 19th 2009

By the time President Obama signed the historic stimulus package in Denver Tuesday, perhaps the toughest challenge posed to him and aides was again unintentionally underscored on our hyperkinetic financial news cable channels.

Feb 16th 2009

I delivered this speech in President Obama's hometown of Chicago on Friday, February 13th, the day after the 200th anniversary of Abraham Lincoln's birth.

Feb 14th 2009

Anyone who believes that anti-Semitism is a thing of the past needs to consider the case of Bishop Richard Williamson, the cleric who denies that the Holocaust occurred and insists that the murder of six million Jews is "lies, lies, lies."

Feb 14th 2009

NEW DELHI - Indians haven't often had much to root for at the Oscars, Hollywood's annual celebration of cinematic success. Only two Indian movies have been nominated in the Best Foreign Language Film category in the last 50 years, and neither won.

Feb 13th 2009

NEW YORK - A year ago, I predicted that the losses of US financial institutions would reach at least $1 trillion and possibly go as high as $2 trillion.

Feb 12th 2009

You'd think that the results of November's election -- coupled with the collapse of the economy -- would begin to make Republican lawmakers question the consequences of their blind commitment to right wing economic orthodoxy.

Feb 12th 2009

In the end, it does not matter all that much that Bibi Netanyahu is going to be Israel's next prime minister. I don't see much (if any) real differences between him and Ehud Barak or Tzipi Livni.