Second Term/Second Chance: Arab Attitudes toward U.S. Rebound in 2012

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Jan 1st 2013

Dr. James J. Zogby is the President of the Arab American Institute

As President Obama prepares to launch his second term in the White House, he can take some comfort in the fact that positive attitudes toward the United States have once again risen sharply in several Arab countries.

After plummeting to record lows during the Bush years, the 2008 election of Barack Obama and the new president’s early outreach effort to the Arab and Muslim worlds caused favorable attitudes toward the United States to increase across the Arab region. However, by mid-2011, with Guantanamo still open, U.S. forces still in Iraq, and the White House appearing to have capitulated to Israeli obstructionism, Arab attitudes toward the United States dropped back to Bush-era levels.

But now in our November 2012 Zogby Research Services (ZRS) survey of Arab opinion, we find that overall U.S. favorable ratings have spiked upward in most Arab countries. More significantly there are, at this point, strong majorities in several countries who assess that the United States is making a positive contribution to peace and stability in the Arab World. In addition to the countries normally covered in Zogby polls (Morocco, Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE), Iraq, Palestine, and Tunisia were also surveyed.

What the 2012 poll makes clear is that the decline in favorable attitudes toward the United States we witnessed in 2011 has been arrested and ratings are back up. In Saudi Arabia, for example, U.S. favorable ratings are at an all-time high of 62%, while in Jordan and UAE positive attitudes have climbed back to where they were in 2009.

In Egypt, U.S. ratings are still a low 10%. That, however, is double the 5% positive rating Egyptians gave the United States in 2011, but nowhere near the 30% level it was at when President Obama delivered his “New Beginnings” speech to the Muslim World from the stage at the University of Cairo. In Lebanon and Morocco, attitudes have held steady.

The more surprising findings were the more than 80% of Jordanians and Emiratis who now say that they believe that the “U.S. is contributing to peace and stability in the Arab World”—a dramatic rise from the less than 10% who held that view a year and a half ago. This is matched by the three-quarters of Saudis, the one-half of Egyptians, and the more than one-third of Lebanese and Moroccans who also agree that the United States is playing a positive role in the region. In all these cases, the rise since 2011 has been substantial.

U.S. Contribution to Peace and Stability in Arab World: Positive
	Morocco	Egypt	Lebanon	Jordan	KSA	UAE
2011	11	10	16	5	24	8
2012	36	50	34	83	74	81

In those countries for which we have no 2011 data, in our 2012 survey, we find low overall favorable ratings for the United States (13% in Iraq, 2% in Palestine, and 19% in Tunisia). But once again Iraqis, Palestinians and Tunisians give high ratings to the U.S. regional role. We found that 65% of Palestinians, 49% of Tunisians, and 40% of Iraqis agreeing that the United States makes a “positive contribution to peace and stability in the Arab World”.

Favorable Attitudes Towards the United States
	Iraq	Palestine	Tunisia
2012	13	2	19

U.S. Contribution to Peace and Stability in Arab World: Positive
	Iraq	Palestine	Tunisia
2012	40	65	49

In an effort to understand these findings we conducted some follow-up interviews with opinion makers. We were told that the reasons for this rise in rating, while somewhat varying from country to country, reflected an appreciation for the more “low key” and cooperative approach President Obama has taken to dealing with the Arab World. They point to the Administration fulfilling its commitment to withdraw from Iraq; its coalition-building work in Libya; its working diplomatically to support change in Syria; and its principled but non-preaching approach to democratic change in Egypt. The one sore point, of course, has been the Administration’s weakness on the Palestinian issue. Many, however, maintain some hope that the United States will make a renewed push to achieve an Israeli-Palestinian peace in the second term.

While this rise in confidence and support should be welcomed in Washington, it also comes with a warning. This is the second spike in favorable ratings for the United States during Obama’s tenure in the White House. Clearly there is relief that President Obama has moved away from Bush-style unilateralism. But hopes are high that the U.S. has the capacity to lead. The President thus begins his second term with Arab public opinion giving him a second vote of confidence. The challenge is clear. He must act now. A second loss of hope could be irreversible.

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EXTRACT: "Since the end of World War II, the United Nations has been the cornerstone of the international rules-based order. While numerous other international agreements address issues such as chemical weapons, biological warfare, and regional stability, the UN has been entrusted with the overarching role of maintaining global peace and stability. What made it effective, at least for a while, was the support of the world’s liberal democracies and, crucially, the unwavering commitment of both Democratic and Republican administrations in the United States." ---- "That all changed with the Bush administration’s decision to invade Iraq, a sovereign country, in the face of fierce international opposition and without the UN Security Council’s approval. In doing so, the US severely damaged its own credibility and undermined the global rules-based system,... "Many of America’s current domestic political divisions grew out of the Iraq War. Whereas presidents like Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman, and Dwight Eisenhower demonstrated that effective leaders can make the world a safer and better place, even in the face of great adversity, Bush’s presidency showed that the opposite is equally true."

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EXTRACTS: "a period of parliamentary history between 1719 and 1772 called 'the age of liberty'. This marked the end of autocratic monarchy and the beginning of an era of parliamentary power " ---- "This was a period of large-scale legislative projects and freedom of speech became central to the idea of freedom from tyranny. The most important piece of legislation was the Freedom of the Press Act of 1766, a law that aimed to protect freedom of information as a means of promoting democracy. It has been amended since but its tenets remain the same. " ---- "Describing Muslims, to allude to the situation of the Qur’an burnings, as criminals would be criminal. But to burn the Qur’an is in itself not, according to the current formulation of the law, an attack on Muslims. It is rather seen as an attack on the religion of Islam. Such attacks are not illegal because the aim of the attack is not directed against a protected group of people but against a belief – an idea. That is not illegal."

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EXTRACT: "Around the world, supply is struggling to keep up with demand. Inflation remains stubbornly high, despite aggressive interest-rate hikes. The global workforce is aging rapidly. Labor shortages are ubiquitous and persistent. These are just some of the forces behind the productivity challenge facing the global economy. And it has become increasingly clear that we must harness artificial intelligence to address that challenge."

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EXTRACTS: "What explains the tenacity of Trump’s support? The force of his arguments is unlikely to be the key, because he makes few coherent arguments." ---- "The Trumpist bubble is deeply mired in pessimism. Some 89% of the GOP think the US is in steep decline, ...." ---- "There are several reasons for popular anxiety. Many American industrial workers feel left behind in a global economy where cheaper labor is sought overseas." --- "Trump has been a master at manipulating these conspiratorial anxieties," ---- "What is perhaps most important is that Trump, despite his success in stacking the Supreme Court with religious radicals, has not captured most of the elites, as Hitler did. "

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EXTRACTS: "Little wonder then that Crimea has been heavily militarised since Russia’s illegal annexation of the peninsula in March 2014 – or that Russian troops there have increasingly been threatened by different anti-Putin partisan groups. These include both Russian volunteers and indigenous Crimean Tatars who have become more active since the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive."

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EXTRACT: "Prigozhin’s fighters would not have been able to travel almost a thousand kilometers (621 miles) within Russian territory in less than a day without help from members of Putin’s inner circle or the military. Rumors are swirling that the billionaire brothers Yuri and Mikhail Kovalchuk may have played a role. The Kovalchuks, close associates of Putin, reportedly share Prigozhin’s belief that Russia has not been forceful enough in the war or in its broader confrontation with the West. Another possible collaborator is General Sergei Surovikin. Like Prigozhin, Surovikin has reportedly advocated a far more brutal war effort than Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu seems willing to conduct. Since the mutiny, he has not been seen in public, and is said to be “resting.” "

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EXTRACTS:" While Western experts continue to view Russia as a modern state, they overlook the fact that Putin’s cronies, who represent the mingling of the security services – particularly the FSB, the successor to the Soviet-era KGB – and organized crime, control most state functions as their private domains." .... "The existence of multiple private armies will make these power games more destabilizing. As a commentator on RIA Novosti, Russia’s official news agency, put it after documenting the private armies of several oil companies: “[W]e are on the verge of a major increase in corporate and other paramilitary structures, as well as major changes in the very approach to the use of military force.” Against this backdrop, the Russian army has become another gang vying for power and property. But as the Kremlin’s grip on power slips, Russia’s generals will likely organize a putsch against Putin and his KGB/FSB cronies – the army’s historical rival."

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EXTRACT: "The closer we get to the endgame, the greater the risk that the Kremlin will resort to some irrational act like ordering the use of a nuclear weapon. Prigozhin’s revolt offers a preview of the chaos that awaits. Almost anything is conceivable now, from the disintegration of the Russian Federation to the rise of another ultra-nationalist regime with neo-czarist dreams of imperial restoration. Like Putin’s Russia, this one would remain locked in the past, far removed from any prospect of social, political, or economic modernization. It would pose a permanent threat to Europe’s eastern flank, and to global stability more broadly. We will have to arm ourselves against it, and our grandchildren and great-grandchildren will most likely have to do the same."

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EXTRACT: "So, who might seize the throne? Two obvious possibilities are Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of Russia’s Security Council, and his son Dmitry, the minister of agriculture. Another is Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, who deliberately appeared on television hard at work during the crisis, while Putin reportedly flew to safety in Valdai, far from the Kremlin. Then there is Dyumin, as well as Moscow’s Mayor Sergei Sobyanin, who controls his own powerful armed force."

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EXTRACT: "......because Prigozhin and his men enjoy the supportof many Russians. For them, Prigozhin is a hero, not a traitor, because he is one of the only public figures who dares to speak the truth about the Kremlin’s incompetent management of the war. And they also see in him a fatherly commander standing up for the soldiers whose lives are being thrown away needlessly by Putin’s clumsy, corrupt generals. People who think this way may well make up a very large part of Russian society. Whether Prigozhin ultimately is imprisoned, executed, or victorious, he will remain an icon for them."

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EXTRACT: "While it might be tempting to conclude that the gut microbes identified as being associated with signs of preclinical Alzheimer’s are also contributing to developing the disease, the study does not provide any evidence of a cause-and-effect relationship. However, if a connection can be established, it opens up an exciting possibility that future treatments for Alzheimer’s might target the microbes in our gut."

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EXTRACT: "When it comes to sustainability, however, US fiscal policy receives a low score. Amid the short-term fluctuations, it is often easy to lose sight of the long-term trajectory. Public debt, as a share of GDP, peaked at the end of World War II and then gradually declined until the Reagan tax cuts of the 1980s, which led to record deficits. Since then, the debt-to-GDP ratio has steadily risen, almost reaching its 1946 record in 2020. Only during the period 1996-2000, under President Bill Clinton, did this trend temporarily reverse."

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EXTRACT: "It is by no means clear that the latest banking crisis has run its course. There are concerns about the so-called shadow banking system, largely unregulated financial institutions that now make up half of all global financial assets. For example, in the US many people invest in money market funds, which pay higher interest than banks, but provide no deposit insurance."

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EXTRACT: "Given the scale of the ECB’s bond holdings, however, its approach to quantitative tightening (QT) seems downright homeopathic. At the current rate, bringing the asset-purchase program to zero will take roughly 15 years (and this does not even account for the fact that the ECB continues to reinvest all maturing assets purchased under the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program). "

The Poverty of AI Pessimism

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EXTRACT: "Hardly a week goes by without various pioneers in artificial intelligence issuing dire warnings about the technology that they introduced to the world." ---- " I have my doubts. Since the start of my professional life in the 1980s (and of course for much longer), technological progress has repeatedly been held up as a major threat to jobs in key industries such as automobile manufacturing. Yet...."