Jul 7th 2014

Time for United Nations Intervention

by James J. Zogby

Dr. James J. Zogby is the President of Arab American Institute

Reactions to the horrific back-to-back kidnappings and murders of three young Israelis and a Palestinian teen have made clear several disturbing realities that must not be ignored.

First is the total lack of trust and empathy that defines the Israeli-Palestinian relationship. This is, of course, an old story. It was the central observation of our recent study of the changes in the public opinion of both societies over the past two decades. This break-down in trust was in evidence in the stories believed by some Palestinians that the kidnappings were but an Israeli concoction designed to give them a free hand to destroy Hamas and Palestinian reconciliation. More disturbing has been the story spread by some Israeli media hinting that Muhammad Abu Khdeir might have been the victim of an "honor killing" committed by his relatives. That such tales can be told and, even worse, find receptive audiences is troubling.

There is also an empathy gap and it was on display in the inability of either side to express or even feel compassion for the losses experienced by the other. There were a few heartfelt statements of sorrow, the most poignant of which came from the parents of the murdered Israeli and Palestinian teens, both maintaining that no parent should have to endure the pain they had experienced.  

This lack of trust and compassion not only defines the attitudes of both publics, it also describes the behavior of their leaderships. Other than Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Justice Minister Tzipi Livni, few officials on either side condemned the killings and expressed condolences to the other side.

Too many Israeli and Palestinian leaders fell in line with the angry and distrustful mood of their vengeful publics. Some Israeli Ministers issued calls to "wipe out Hamas" and retake Gaza and "clean it out for good." For their part, Hamas leaders steadfastly refused to condemn the kidnappings while their official spokesman callously said that he would "bless the hands" of those who seized the three Israeli teenagers. Some Palestinian Authority officials attempted to distance themselves from their President, suggesting that kidnapping may be the only way to secure freedom for Palestinian prisoners.

This souring of the mood in both societies is, as I have noted, an old story born of a conflict that has witnessed one people, with a long history of victimization, dispossessing and victimizing another people. The violence that ensued during the last century deepened each party's fear of and anger toward the other.

What was remarkable about the period immediately following the 1993 Oslo Accord was the optimism and openness demonstrated by both Israelis and Palestinians, leaders and publics. What they needed, at the time, was a firm hand and a push to close the deal. What they got instead was a US Administration whose advisers foolishly cautioned against dramatic intervention, and a US Congress hell-bent on anti-Palestinian obstructionism.

Left to themselves, Israelis and Palestinians fell prey to the worst instincts of their most extreme elements. Settlements grew; with the closure of the territories, Palestinian poverty increased; an extremist Israeli massacred Palestinians in Hebron, while another assassinated Prime Minister Rabin; and, during all this time, Hamas organized suicide bombings which took a terrible toll. During the first decade after Oslo, trust collapsed. The second decade proved no better. 

At an ill-prepared Camp David Summit, the Israelis dictated terms they must have known a reluctant Arafat could never accept and then proceeded to lie about it as "best deal ever" (with the disingenuous endorsement of the US President). The break-down of this Summit coupled with the Palestinian public's growing frustration with Israel's oppressive policies led to more violence, more repression, and more despair and mutual recrimination.  

The impact of this sorry history has been a hardening of views on both sides. Left unresolved, pain and anger don't dissipate over time. They fester and grow— especially when constantly fueled by more bad behavior and more incitement from the likes of the LIKUD and Hamas. The accrual of bitterness has reached the point of no return. Despite the wishful thinking of some, we will never get back to the post-Oslo period. Neither the Israeli or Palestinian public will be in a position to forget the past twenty years. The Israelis, backed by the US Congress, act with impunity and callous disregard for the consequences of their behavior. Moderate Palestinian leadership, operating as captives in an occupied land, have been repeatedly humiliated by the Israelis and lack the power to make any meaningful change in the lives of their people.

With Israel/Palestine on the brink of a new explosion, appeals for restraint or "calming things down" offer no solution. As the events of the past few weeks have demonstrated, the status quo is a disaster waiting to happen. It is way past time that we recognize that the parties cannot negotiate their way to a two-state solution. Israelis lack the will to make a meaningful offer and Palestinians cannot accept what Israel is offering. The US Administration, because it cannot muster the resolve to challenge Congress, stands powerless to effect change.

At the same time, as recent events should have made clear, the one-state solution is also inconceivable. To propose this is to condemn both peoples, especially the captive Palestinians, to more pain and repression for decades to come.

If there ever were a situation that called for the United Nations to intervene and declare its authority under Chapter 7, "threats to peace, breaches of peace..."— this is it. This mess was created by the international community and the international community retains the ultimate authority to resolve it.  External intervention is the only way to separate the Israelis from the Palestinians and to enforce international law with regard to the settlements and refugees.

The Palestinian Authority should prepare to go to the United Nations in September and force a vote in the Security Council. Faced with this option, the US will, no doubt, balk; Israel and their "supporters" in Congress will become hysterical. This will not solve the problem, in short order but it will unleash a new dynamic in which the world community will inevitably be forced to take ownership of a conflict that they have ignored for too long.

Browse articles by author

More Current Affairs

Apr 24th 2022
EXTRACT: "Although the milestone lasted only for a brief time, it points to a future in which California runs on 100% wind, solar, hydro and batteries, a future that will certainly arrive even faster than the state plans. As it is, California is ahead of its green energy goals." ...... "A world of 100% green energy and electric cars is not only a healthier and more comfortable world, it is a world where oil and gas dictators like Vladimir Putin are defunded."
Apr 17th 2022
EXTRACT: "Kazakhstan’s authorities have also showed uncharacteristic leniency in allowing public rallies in support of Ukraine. Thousands of protesters holding banners reading “Russians, leave Ukraine”, “Long Live Ukraine” and “Bring Putin to trial” marched across the capital, Almaty, wrapping monuments to Lenin and other Soviet-era figures with yellow and blue balloons symbolising the Ukrainian flag."
Apr 15th 2022
EXTRACT: "People’s identification with the Soviet Union appears to have a clear and growing basis in Russian public opinion. Surveys we have conducted throughout the Putin period show that Soviet identification among the general population – something that had been steadily declining after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 – began to increase in 2014, when the Russian government annexed Crimea and supported rebellions in the Ukrainian regions of Luhansk and Donetsk. By 2021, almost 50% of those surveyed identified with the Soviet Union rather than the Russian Federation."
Apr 13th 2022
EXTRACT: "Worse yet, the Hungarian government has effectively been helping Putin by prohibiting the shipment of weapons to Ukraine across its borders. Hungarian public TV spreads Russian disinformation day and night. The day before the election, an assembly of ordinary people expressing solidarity with Ukraine was framed on state television as a “pro-war rally.” "
Apr 13th 2022
EXTRACT: "It may well be that the Russian army’s fate has already been sealed in what is likely to be a long war. The single qualification to this may be that Russia could default to escalation using “weapons of mass destruction” of one form or another – whether tactical nuclear warheads or chemical weapons."
Apr 13th 2022
EXTRACTS" "Ukraine and Russia produce a substantial amount of grain and other food for export. Ukraine alone produces a whopping 6% of all food calories traded in the international market. At least it used to, before it was invaded by the world’s largest nuclear power." ...... "When it comes to cereals like wheat, corn, rice and barley, the big players talk about millions of metric tonnes, or MMTs. A single MMT of wheat contains about 3.4 trillion food calories,." ....."Ukraine produced about 80 MMT of grain (a category that includes wheat, corn and barley) in 2021, and is expected to harvest less than half of that this year. A shortfall of 40 MMT is enough missing calories that a country like the UK could only make it up by having everyone stop eating for three years. That’s the thing about tonnes of grain: a million here and a million there and pretty soon you’ve got a real issue on your plate."
Apr 11th 2022
EXTRACT: "I don’t even know the little girl’s name. All I do know is what a friend of a friend wrote on Viber: that her relative, a senior nurse in one of Kyiv’s hospitals, “saw in the morgue a child with 20 varieties of sperm on her small body.” Since this information was conveyed in a private conversation, there is no reason to doubt its veracity."
Apr 8th 2022
EXTRACT: "Russian society has so far failed to stop Putin, just as German society failed to stop Hitler. And so, like a poisoned chalice, that task has fallen to the West, as it did in 1939. The West must now treat Putin and his regime the same way that Winston Churchill treated Hitler: Don’t talk to him, just defeat him. Dead-enders such as Putin are too fanatical and desperate to be reliable negotiating partners."
Apr 3rd 2022
EXTRACT: "From 1807 to 1814 on the Iberian peninsula, Napoleon had to fight Spanish, Portuguese and British armies while beset by ubiquitous, ferocious insurgents. He described this war as his “bleeding ulcer”, draining him of men and equipment. It is the west’s aim to make Ukraine for Putin what Spain was for Napoleon. In the absence of a negotiated settlement, Ukraine and Nato will continue to grind away at Russia’s army, digging away at that bleeding ulcer and prolonging Russia’s agony on the military front, as the west continues its parallel assault on its economy. If Putin’s plan is to proceed with the Korea model, he will fail. There is a strong possibility that Putin has only a limited idea of how badly his army is faring. So be it – he’ll find out soon enough that there is now no path for him to military victory."
Apr 1st 2022
EXTRACTS: "Policymakers expected that the country would be able to secure its energy supply entirely from renewable sources, so they resolved to phase out coal and nuclear energy simultaneously. The last three of Germany’s 17 nuclear power plants are set to be shut down this year." ---- ".... the share of wind and solar power in Germany’s total final energy consumption, which includes heating, industrial processing, and traffic, was a meager 6.7%. And while wind and solar generated 29% of the country’s electricity output, electricity itself accounted for only about a fifth of its final energy consumption." ----- "If Germany suddenly halted Russian gas imports, gas-based residential heating systems – on which half the German population, approximately 40 million people, rely – and industrial processes that rely heavily on gas imports would break down....."
Apr 1st 2022
EXTRACT: "For Putin, the past that matters most is the one the dissident author and Nobel laureate Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn exalted: the time when the Slavic peoples were united within the Orthodox Christian kingdom of Kievan Rus’. Kyiv formed its heart, making Ukraine central to Putin’s pan-Slavic vision. ---- But, for Putin, the Ukraine war is about preserving Russia, not just expanding it. As Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently made clear, Russia’s leaders believe that their country is locked in a “life-and-death battle to exist on the world’s geopolitical map.” That worldview reflects Putin’s longstanding obsession with works of other Russian emigrant philosophers, such as Ivan Ilyin and Nikolai Berdyaev, who described a struggle for the Eurasian (Russian) soul against the Atlanticists (the West) who would destroy it. ---- Yet Putin and his neo-Eurasianists seem to believe that the key to victory is to create the kind of regime those anti-Bolshevik philosophers most detested: one run by the security forces. A police state would fulfill the vision of another of Putin’s heroes: the KGB chief turned Soviet General Secretary Yuri Andropov."
Apr 1st 2022
EXTRACTS: "Ukraine, known as the breadbasket of Europe, is struggling to export last year’s harvest, and may be unable to produce much this year either. In addition, the war has caused a global fertiliser shortage, which will push up food prices around the world too. Coming at a time when the global pandemic had already increased food insecurity and depleted resources around the world, many countries may not be resilient to a major food crisis brought on by the war. Back-to-back global catastrophic events like this have not happened for close to 100 years." ----- "Another useful analogue is the case of Germany during the first world war. When war broke out in 1914, the German authorities had anticipated a short conflict – not too dissimilar to Russian assumptions a few weeks ago. Just like in Ukraine now, the first world war severely disrupted German farming."
Mar 31st 2022
EXTRACT: "The horrors of World War II – the death camps, slave labor, and inhumane experiments on people – produced a global commitment never to permit such crimes to be repeated. This began a transformation of international politics whereby appreciation of the value of every person’s life and dignity ensured that even most authoritarian governments at least paid lip service to human rights.  ----- But the Soviet Union and many of its successor states, particularly Russia, never internalized this change. More than three decades after the USSR collapsed, most post-Soviet countries are still governed according to the old “imperial” paradigm. So, it should come as no surprise that we are now witnessing a clash between fundamentally different sets of values and ultimate goals for statehood."
Mar 26th 2022
EXTRACT: "Referencing past legacies as a justification for present-day political decisions is often effective – such appeals trigger emotional reflexes and contribute to thinking about politics in terms of rivalry and defence. The irony within the tragedy of the current situation is that Putin will assuredly go down in history as the figure that did more to unite the Ukrainian people (albeit against Russia) than any other in recent memory."
Mar 24th 2022
EXTRACT: " Despite the death and destruction that Russia rains down daily on them, the vast majority of Ukrainians are bullish about the future: 77% believe the country is moving in the right direction, 93% think they can beat back Russia, and 47% expect to win in the next few weeks.  Ukrainian policymakers are no less bullish, driving a hard bargain in negotiations with the Russians. Several factors account for this remarkable optimism."
Mar 21st 2022
EXTRACT: "As Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, China’s role has been thrown into sharp relief. Prior to the war, some commentators suggested that China would openly side with Russia or seek to act as a mediator – so far Beijing appears to have resisted doing either. As Qin Gang, China’s ambassador to the US, wrote recently in the Washington Post, Beijing has nothing to gain from this war, arguing “wielding the baton of sanctions at Chinese companies while seeking China’s support and cooperation simply won’t work”. Ambassador Qin also stressed that Beijing had no prior knowledge of the conflict,...."
Mar 17th 2022
EXTRACT: "The second source of Russian power is of course the world’s largest nuclear arsenal. Nuclear weapons would not deliver victory in a conventional war, but they could destroy a country in the blink of an eye. This brings us to a terrifying question: What will Putin do when he realizes that he cannot win his war in Ukraine by conventional means?"
Mar 17th 2022
EXTRACT: "An influential Shanghai-based academic commentator on international affairs, Hu Wei, recently advanced a cautionary argument that has been circulated widely in Chinese-language publications. In his commentary, which is unlikely to have been published without the approval of some of Xi’s senior courtiers, Hu wondered how Chinese communists would react if the war escalated beyond Ukraine, or if Russia was clearly defeated." ------- "For Hu, the answer for China’s leaders is simple. They should wash their hands of the relationship with Putin, ....."
Mar 12th 2022
EXTRACT: "Meanwhile, Xi seems to have realized that Putin has gone rogue. On March 8, one day after Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had insisted that the friendship between China and Russia remained “rock solid,” Xi called French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to say that he supported their peacemaking efforts."
Mar 7th 2022
EXTRACTS: "........Russia has been isolated by draconian Western sanctions that could devastate its economy for decades,...." ---- "Russia’s prospects are bleak, at best; without China, it has none at all. China holds the trump card in the ultimate survival of Putin’s Russia."