Sep 20th 2013

Why Obama’s Syria Debacle Remains On Point

by Alon Ben-Meir

 

Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a retired professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He taught courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies for over 20 years.


My previous article entitled “Obama’s Syria Debacle” elicited wide-spread positive feedback and just as much criticism about the rationale behind my argument that President Obama must punish President Assad for his use of chemical weapons against his people. I further argued that should President Obama avoid striking Syria, it would severely undermine America’s regional influence and its national security concerns and that of its allies.

Many of those who read the article argue that “the best interests of our society and our citizens must come first to the mind of a President.” It is true that the president must concern himself with the wellbeing of the American people; that, however, does not mean the US can or should live in isolation as US foreign involvement serves the American people as well.

The US’s interest in the Middle East is of paramount importance to its economy and its national security. Many in the Western hemisphere, including the US, still depend on oil; we have substantial trade interests including the sale of military hardware to our allies to deter outside threats, and we have strategic alliances with the Gulf States along with Jordan and Israel.

This does not translate to an economic burden that the American people must shoulder or security obligations that we unnecessarily bear. The US and its regional allies mutually benefit from these bilateral relations.

Every American president since World War II recognized the importance of the Middle East and invested heavily to protect American short and long-term national interests.

Those who equate the Iraq War and the ongoing war in Afghanistan to a limited strike on Syria gravely miss a central point. While I fully agree that the Iraq War was a ‘war of choice,’ unnecessary and wholly misguided, and the war in Afghanistan is badly mishandled and should have ended several years ago, Syria occupies an entirely different place in time.

Only a fool would suggest that we should place boots on the ground, or we should undertake an open-ended military campaign against the Assad regime and get America mired, once again, in a Middle East war at a terrible cost.

Many from the intelligence community and military experts affirm that a limited strike against Assad would not precipitate retaliation by either his military or any of his allies. Israel has struck several Syrian military installations without any response, Assad fearing massive Israeli counter-attacks that could end his grip on power.

Another reader who posed the hypothetical question, “Would you send your son into harm’s way in behalf of rebels you know so little about?” The answer is no, I would not send my son to fight in Syria, nor do I advocate that any other father should send his son or daughter to fight on behalf of the rebels.

The rebels have not asked nor are they seeking American soldiers to fight for them. They are simply asking for weapons with which they can defend themselves and eventually rid the country of a ruthless dictator.

Another reader argued that “You know very well that the so called “rebels” are in fact external warriors coming to Syria.” To my chagrin, this statement in fact explains why there is so much resistance to American “involvement” in any shape or form.

Yes, there are foreign fighters including Islamists and Al Qaeda affiliates converging on Syria who have their own political agenda for the future of country. But anyone who really knows the reality on the ground also knows that they are a minority compared to the indigenous Syrian rebels who are fighting for freedom and for their lives.

Thousands of Syrian military personnel, diplomats, state employees, and internal security officials have defected and tens of thousands of citizens are fighting and dying for what they believe in.

To suggest, as another person wrote, that “You also seem to forget that foreign commandos – including Israeli commandos are in action against Al-Assad. Israel and its commandos are perfectly capable of chemical weapons manipulation and it seems very clear that using chemical weapons in Syria was the best way to open a wide boulevard for American and European intervention in Syria and that is very profitable to Israel,” is nothing short of preposterous.

I have heard many conspiracy theories, but this one tops them all. This reader seems sadly so detached from reality. In fact, Israel was happy with Assad the father and now his son, as both maintained and lived up to the 1974 disengagement agreement with Israel without any violent incidents along their shared borders.

If the Israelis had their druthers they would have liked to see Assad continue to rule Syria, as the status of no peace and no war is exactly what they prefer. Israel will gain nothing if Syria disintegrates and certainly dreads the prospect of Iran and Hezbollah becoming the dominant factor in the Levant.

Another reader who generally agrees with my views said: “But what surprises me is your distorted view of the United States role in the world. Have you forgotten Chile and so many other places where our notion of stability is to destroy democracy and prop up or install dictatorships?”

It is true the US has supported authoritarian regimes around the world. That said, we cannot be oblivious to the massacre of thousands of men, women and children (thanks to the Russians and the Chinese) in the face of the United Nations Security Council’s paralysis, and at the same time claim to walk the moral high ground.

Punishing Assad by striking some of his military installations and degrading his air force while providing the rebels with the weapons they need is and remains what is necessary to accelerate his demise.

Should the continuing civil war be left unchecked, it will inevitably spill over to the rest of the region with horrific regional ramifications. The US simply cannot afford to be passive when the stakes are so high and when America’s rivals, if not enemies – Russia and Iran in particular – are lying in wait to exploit any display of American weakness.

I am also accused by another reader that my argument is weak because I “blame Obama for everything.” No, my argument is that as the commander-in-chief, the president must occasionally take certain calculated risks when such risks serve America best.

National security policy cannot be conducted by public consensus. The general public and many congressmen are not privy to classified intelligence, nor do they have a clear understanding of the nuances of the conflict.

The president has the prerogative to take certain limited military action when deemed necessary without consultation with Congress. Many former presidents have done so, including Clinton in Kosovo and Regan in Grenada.

It is President Obama who established a “red line” and put his personal credibility and that of the nation on the line. It is not that he cannot change his mind. He can. It is the impression that he leaves with friends and foes alike.

A lack of credibility would undermine our efforts at deterrence. Regional powers such as Iran will be encouraged to continue its efforts to develop nuclear weapons to consolidate its regional hegemony with impunity.

The United States does not want its regional allies to act on their own in dealing with conflicts simply because they do not trust America to do the right thing. Like it or not, the US is the Global Power; it has global responsibility both by design and circumstances.

The question is not whether we should get involved in world affairs, but how wisely we chose to be involved and whether or not such involvement serves America’s national interest while meeting our obligations toward our friends and allies.

Certainly not everyone believes that the United States is committed to human rights and that we, as a nation, seek to improve the lives of people far and near. As another reader put it:

“I know you know your history,” he wrote, “but I am curious as to where the United States acts or have acted throughout its entire history for the “betterment of people elsewhere”. And to this day, we only act when it serves the betterment of those who are already sitting quite well.”

I certainly do not believe that the United States always acts out of altruism, and the betterment of humanity is not necessarily first on its priority list. America is far from being perfect, but I challenge anyone to show me another country, large or small, that has the capacity, the means, the willingness and the values to promote the betterment of people anywhere.

No, this is not a note of patriotism. Many of our worst enemies who condemn the US day in and day out send their kids to study in the US, learn about its culture and way of life and experience what America has to offer.

It is these values on which this country was founded that demand the president to act with vision and courage when other nations and the UN are incapable or unwilling to uphold the sanctity of life.

Whether or not the plan to dismantle and destroy Syria’s chemical weapons succeeds, it will take months, nay years, before this ambitious project is completed. Meanwhile, should we wait until an additional 120,000 Syrians die before our conscience is awakened?

Browse articles by author

More Current Affairs

Aug 20th 2023
EXTRACT: "Since the end of World War II, the United Nations has been the cornerstone of the international rules-based order. While numerous other international agreements address issues such as chemical weapons, biological warfare, and regional stability, the UN has been entrusted with the overarching role of maintaining global peace and stability. What made it effective, at least for a while, was the support of the world’s liberal democracies and, crucially, the unwavering commitment of both Democratic and Republican administrations in the United States." ---- "That all changed with the Bush administration’s decision to invade Iraq, a sovereign country, in the face of fierce international opposition and without the UN Security Council’s approval. In doing so, the US severely damaged its own credibility and undermined the global rules-based system,... "Many of America’s current domestic political divisions grew out of the Iraq War. Whereas presidents like Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman, and Dwight Eisenhower demonstrated that effective leaders can make the world a safer and better place, even in the face of great adversity, Bush’s presidency showed that the opposite is equally true."
Aug 20th 2023
EXTRACTS: "a period of parliamentary history between 1719 and 1772 called 'the age of liberty'. This marked the end of autocratic monarchy and the beginning of an era of parliamentary power " ---- "This was a period of large-scale legislative projects and freedom of speech became central to the idea of freedom from tyranny. The most important piece of legislation was the Freedom of the Press Act of 1766, a law that aimed to protect freedom of information as a means of promoting democracy. It has been amended since but its tenets remain the same. " ---- "Describing Muslims, to allude to the situation of the Qur’an burnings, as criminals would be criminal. But to burn the Qur’an is in itself not, according to the current formulation of the law, an attack on Muslims. It is rather seen as an attack on the religion of Islam. Such attacks are not illegal because the aim of the attack is not directed against a protected group of people but against a belief – an idea. That is not illegal."
Aug 18th 2023
EXTRACTS: "But if the dollar should lose its privileged place, what could replace it? At present, the euro, which accounts for 20% of global central-bank reserves, is the only currency that could realistically serve as a substitute. Its appeal, however, is undermined by the fragmentation of Europe’s national sovereign-debt markets, as well as lingering doubts about the European Union’s long-term viability in the wake of the UK’s departure.'" ---- "The Chinese renminbi, which accounts for less than 3% of global reserves, is not a serious threat to dollar hegemony. "
Aug 12th 2023
EXTRACT: "Around the world, supply is struggling to keep up with demand. Inflation remains stubbornly high, despite aggressive interest-rate hikes. The global workforce is aging rapidly. Labor shortages are ubiquitous and persistent. These are just some of the forces behind the productivity challenge facing the global economy. And it has become increasingly clear that we must harness artificial intelligence to address that challenge."
Aug 2nd 2023
EXTRACTS: "What explains the tenacity of Trump’s support? The force of his arguments is unlikely to be the key, because he makes few coherent arguments." ---- "The Trumpist bubble is deeply mired in pessimism. Some 89% of the GOP think the US is in steep decline, ...." ---- "There are several reasons for popular anxiety. Many American industrial workers feel left behind in a global economy where cheaper labor is sought overseas." --- "Trump has been a master at manipulating these conspiratorial anxieties," ---- "What is perhaps most important is that Trump, despite his success in stacking the Supreme Court with religious radicals, has not captured most of the elites, as Hitler did. "
Jul 19th 2023
EXTRACTS: "Little wonder then that Crimea has been heavily militarised since Russia’s illegal annexation of the peninsula in March 2014 – or that Russian troops there have increasingly been threatened by different anti-Putin partisan groups. These include both Russian volunteers and indigenous Crimean Tatars who have become more active since the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive."
Jul 19th 2023
EXTRACT: "Prigozhin’s fighters would not have been able to travel almost a thousand kilometers (621 miles) within Russian territory in less than a day without help from members of Putin’s inner circle or the military. Rumors are swirling that the billionaire brothers Yuri and Mikhail Kovalchuk may have played a role. The Kovalchuks, close associates of Putin, reportedly share Prigozhin’s belief that Russia has not been forceful enough in the war or in its broader confrontation with the West. Another possible collaborator is General Sergei Surovikin. Like Prigozhin, Surovikin has reportedly advocated a far more brutal war effort than Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu seems willing to conduct. Since the mutiny, he has not been seen in public, and is said to be “resting.” "
Jul 19th 2023
EXTRACTS:" While Western experts continue to view Russia as a modern state, they overlook the fact that Putin’s cronies, who represent the mingling of the security services – particularly the FSB, the successor to the Soviet-era KGB – and organized crime, control most state functions as their private domains." .... "The existence of multiple private armies will make these power games more destabilizing. As a commentator on RIA Novosti, Russia’s official news agency, put it after documenting the private armies of several oil companies: “[W]e are on the verge of a major increase in corporate and other paramilitary structures, as well as major changes in the very approach to the use of military force.” Against this backdrop, the Russian army has become another gang vying for power and property. But as the Kremlin’s grip on power slips, Russia’s generals will likely organize a putsch against Putin and his KGB/FSB cronies – the army’s historical rival."
Jul 16th 2023
EXTRACTS: "The fuel inside nuclear reactors needs continuous, active cooling for many months after a reactor shutdown" ..... "The world saw in dramatic fashion in Fukushima, Japan, in 2011 what can happen when continuous, active cooling of nuclear reactors is disrupted. More than 70% of the total radioactivity at the Fukushima power plant was in the spent fuel ponds" .... "In his classic 1981 book Nuclear Radiation in Warfare, Nobel Peace Prize-winning physicist Joseph Rotblat documented how 'in a pressurised water reactor, the meltdown of the core could occur within less than one minute after the loss of coolant'. The radioactivity released from damaged spent fuel ponds could be even greater than from a meltdown at the reactor itself, he wrote. His study makes clear that a military attack on a reactor or spent fuel pond could release more radioactivity – and longer-lasting radioactivity – than even a large (megaton range) nuclear weapon."
Jul 6th 2023
EXTRACT: "The closer we get to the endgame, the greater the risk that the Kremlin will resort to some irrational act like ordering the use of a nuclear weapon. Prigozhin’s revolt offers a preview of the chaos that awaits. Almost anything is conceivable now, from the disintegration of the Russian Federation to the rise of another ultra-nationalist regime with neo-czarist dreams of imperial restoration. Like Putin’s Russia, this one would remain locked in the past, far removed from any prospect of social, political, or economic modernization. It would pose a permanent threat to Europe’s eastern flank, and to global stability more broadly. We will have to arm ourselves against it, and our grandchildren and great-grandchildren will most likely have to do the same."
Jun 27th 2023
EXTRACT: "So, who might seize the throne? Two obvious possibilities are Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of Russia’s Security Council, and his son Dmitry, the minister of agriculture. Another is Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, who deliberately appeared on television hard at work during the crisis, while Putin reportedly flew to safety in Valdai, far from the Kremlin. Then there is Dyumin, as well as Moscow’s Mayor Sergei Sobyanin, who controls his own powerful armed force."
Jun 25th 2023
EXTRACT: "......because Prigozhin and his men enjoy the supportof many Russians. For them, Prigozhin is a hero, not a traitor, because he is one of the only public figures who dares to speak the truth about the Kremlin’s incompetent management of the war. And they also see in him a fatherly commander standing up for the soldiers whose lives are being thrown away needlessly by Putin’s clumsy, corrupt generals. People who think this way may well make up a very large part of Russian society. Whether Prigozhin ultimately is imprisoned, executed, or victorious, he will remain an icon for them."
Jun 25th 2023
EXTRACT: "While it might be tempting to conclude that the gut microbes identified as being associated with signs of preclinical Alzheimer’s are also contributing to developing the disease, the study does not provide any evidence of a cause-and-effect relationship. However, if a connection can be established, it opens up an exciting possibility that future treatments for Alzheimer’s might target the microbes in our gut."
Jun 18th 2023
EXTRACT: "When it comes to sustainability, however, US fiscal policy receives a low score. Amid the short-term fluctuations, it is often easy to lose sight of the long-term trajectory. Public debt, as a share of GDP, peaked at the end of World War II and then gradually declined until the Reagan tax cuts of the 1980s, which led to record deficits. Since then, the debt-to-GDP ratio has steadily risen, almost reaching its 1946 record in 2020. Only during the period 1996-2000, under President Bill Clinton, did this trend temporarily reverse."
Jun 14th 2023
EXTRACT: "It is by no means clear that the latest banking crisis has run its course. There are concerns about the so-called shadow banking system, largely unregulated financial institutions that now make up half of all global financial assets. For example, in the US many people invest in money market funds, which pay higher interest than banks, but provide no deposit insurance."
Jun 9th 2023
EXTRACT: "Given the scale of the ECB’s bond holdings, however, its approach to quantitative tightening (QT) seems downright homeopathic. At the current rate, bringing the asset-purchase program to zero will take roughly 15 years (and this does not even account for the fact that the ECB continues to reinvest all maturing assets purchased under the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program). "
Jun 9th 2023
EXTRACT: "Hardly a week goes by without various pioneers in artificial intelligence issuing dire warnings about the technology that they introduced to the world." ---- " I have my doubts. Since the start of my professional life in the 1980s (and of course for much longer), technological progress has repeatedly been held up as a major threat to jobs in key industries such as automobile manufacturing. Yet...."
May 31st 2023
EXTRACT: "In discussions about the implications of artificial intelligence (AI), someone almost always evokes the ancient Greek myth of Pandora’s box. In the modern fairytale version of the story, Pandora is depicted as a tragically curious young woman who opens a sealed urn and inadvertently releases eternal misery on humankind. Like the genie that has escaped the bottle, the horse that has fled the barn, and the train that has left the station, the myth has become a cliché. And yet the actual story of Pandora is far more apropos to debates about AI and machine learning than many realize. What it shows is that it is better to listen to “Prometheans” who are concerned about humanity’s future than “Epimetheans” who are easily dazzled by the prospect of short-term gains. One of the oldest Greek myths, the story of Pandora was first recorded more than 2,500 years ago, in the time of Homer. In the original telling, Pandora was not some innocent girl who succumbed to the temptation to open a forbidden jar. Rather, as the poet Hesiod tells us, Pandora was “made, not born.” Having been commissioned by all-powerful Zeus and designed to his cruel specifications by Hephaestus, the god of invention, Pandora was a lifelike android created to look like a bewitching maiden. Her purpose was to entrap mortals as a manifestation of kalos kakon: “evil hidden in beauty.”
May 31st 2023
EXTRACT: "Specifically, many believe that the arrival of artificial general intelligence (AGI) – an AI that can teach itself to perform any cognitive task that humans can do – will pose an existential threat to humanity. A carelessly designed AGI (or one governed by unknown “black box” processes) could carry out its tasks in ways that compromise fundamental elements of our humanity. After that, what it means to be human could come to be mediated by AGI."
May 29th 2023
EXTRACT: "In his 2018 book Destined For War, political scientist Graham Allison observes that the US and China are headed toward what he called the “Thucydides’ Trap,” a reference to the ancient Greek historian’s account of Sparta’s efforts to suppress the rise of Athens, which ultimately culminated in the Peloponnesian War. A better analogy, however, is the message sent by the Athenians to the inhabitants of the besieged island of Melos before executing the men and enslaving the women and children: “The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must." ---- Allowing China and other authoritarian countries to shape the rules would result in a world order based solely on this “realist” principle. It is a nightmare scenario that the G7 countries and other liberal democracies must strive to prevent. ---- China’s assertions about the decline of the West reveal an underlying anxiety. After all, if liberal democracy is failing, why do Chinese officials consistently express their fear of it? The fact that leaders of the Communist Party of China have instructed rank-and-file members to engage in an “intense struggle” against liberal-democratic values indicates that they view open societies as an existential threat."