Nov 2nd 2012

The Next President's Endless War Project

by Michael Brenner

Dr. Michael Brenner is a Non-Resident Fellow at the Center for Transatlantic Relations. He publishes and teaches in the fields of American foreign policy, Euro-American relations, and the European Union. He is also Professor of International Affairs at the University of Pittsburgh. Brenner is the author of numerous books, and over 60 articles and published papers on a broad range of topics. These include books with Cambridge University Press (Nuclear Power and Non-Proliferation) and the Center For International Affairs at Harvard University (The Politics of International Monetary Reform); and publications in major journals in the United States and Europe, such as World Politics, Comparative Politics, Foreign Policy, International Studies Quarterly, International Affairs, Survival, Politique Etrangere, and Internationale Politik. His most recent work is Toward A More Independent Europe, Egmont Institute, Brussels.

The long campaign of 2011-12 is straggling toward the finish line. Without Sandy's impetus it may not have made it -- or so it seems to the jaded. In this torrent of words, an innocent observer might assume that all the momentous issues facing the nation would have been subject to searching analysis and debate. That is naive. We are reminded of that distressing reality by the two candidates' ignoring of the startling revelation that the Obama administration has well advanced plans for an enlargement and extension of the "war on terror" into the indefinite future. A series of authoritative stories in the Washington Post is the source.

They detail how the United States is putting in place the ingredients of a global strategy to identify and to take preventive action against any group or individual who is judged as posing a potential threat to the U.S. or its interests. There is no limit to the geographical scope. Similarly, the conception of a threat is extremely broad. It is the same as that incorporated into a number of previous documents. Anyone who provides aid or comfort to any entity that demonstrates hostility toward America, or to one that funds such an entity, anyone who by word or deed generates support for such a group, is a valid target. Violence prone Islamic groups who call for action against the American enemy -- à la al Qaeda and its affiliates -- are core concern and the most readily identifiable. However, the policies that constitute this new "war on terror" explicitly go far beyond that in the broad definition of the "enemy" and in the methods envisaged to crush it.

The war against al Qaeda is turning into a war against Islamic fundamentalism -- in most of its forms and manifestations. In other words, the prevailing thinking is that any fundamentalist group could morph into a jihadist entity and/or affiliate itself with one and/or provide indirect support for one. It now is American policy to prevent that chain from developing -- in addition to preventing hostile action itself. By this process of logical regression the world inhabited by untold numbers of fundamentalist Muslims has become the "danger." The implication is that until that world is remade, the United States is bound to contend by all means necessary to neutralize it.

The strategy is the brainchild of Barack Obama and his entire foreign policy team. The White House terrorism chief John Brennan is its designated master builder. There is every reason to expect that it would be adopted by a Romney administration. For it conforms closely to his own views and those of his hand picked, ultra hawkish advisors. Most of them are veterans of the Bush administration.

The plan envisages a running war on numerous fronts that has no visible termination point or measure of success. It will involve covert operations (CIA & Special Forces), some not so covert operations, a proliferation of drone strikes, political interventions on a sustained basis, and whatever else our masters in the Homeland Security universe can dream up. The resulting mayhem (for which Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, et. al. are precursors) will be widespread and at times intense. Benghazi likely will be repeated -- perhaps on a larger scale. For we are wading ever deeper into the internal affairs of foreign countries across a vast span of the globe with a faulty GPS and no clear destination. Moreover, the missions are either coercive or entail subordinating prudent diplomacy to the audacious conviction that we have the means, and the necessity, to determine how alien peoples organize their political life and the creeds they live by.

Hence, Secretary Clinton has just announced that Washington is bending itself to the daunting task of orchestrating the formation of a fresh coordinating body for the Syrian opposition. This despite the awkward truth that none of the significant factions has asked us to do so and we are jettisoning the Western oriented coordinating body which, whatever its shortcomings, is the only group sympathetic to the United States. We seemingly have learned nothing from our misadventures elsewhere in the greater Middle East.

There are three elementary but critical flaws to this emerging "Operation Evermore" which have eluded the administration and also the foreign policy community more broadly from whom we have heard not one noteworthy skeptical comment. The central error is the casting together of the diverse movements as one finds under the label Islamic fundamentalist. Any sensible approach toward comprehending the elusive phenomenon we call Islamic fundamentalism would first get a fix on what practical meaning any sect or movement has. We must begin by parsing the term. At the literal level, 'Islamist' refers to any formation that identifies itself as drawing on Muslim tradition. That is to say, they are not avowedly secular as was the Ba'ath Party at its origins.

Salafism refers to those who promote a literal reading of the Koran and ancillary texts, the organizing of society on the principles and practices laid down in sharia law, and uniting the Believers of the ummah in a manifest spiritual community. An essential complementary element of Salafists is the rejection of foreign influences and 'modernity'. F. B. Ali underscores that "This often translates into opposition to foreigners, foreign powers and Muslims believed to be influenced by or allied to foreigners. Some Salafis (and Wahhabis) take this opposition further by engaging in Jihad against foreign 'infidels' which in today's popular usage means a struggle that involves violence. They "are properly termed Jihadis. Thus, all Jihadis are usually Salafis, but not all Salafis are Jihadis." The House of Saud are salafists; Osama bin Laden was a jihadi. Saudi leaders at times see the Kingdom's political advantage in enabling or even encouraging Jihadist action -- as they did in Afghanistan, Iraq and now Syria. That is a tactical judgment largely free of theological content.

The second flaw in "Operation Forevermore" is its exaggeration of the chances of succeeding. Beyond our dismal record of the past decade, there is the improbable project of shaping the internal dynamics of turbulent societies where we are viewed with animosity by many and distrust by almost all the rest of the population. To official Washington, though, the entire world is Honduras.

Third, this inevitably will provoke various types of violent reaction -- over there and perhaps over here, i.e. turning parochial fundamentalists into anti-American terrorists. In the process, we will have paid a hefty price in terms of diminished influence on a host of other important issues ranging from Indo-Pakistan tensions to Iran. As a consequence, America will be less safe and less respected, and less able to help orient an interdependent world of diffuse power and many players..

The great intellectual, as well as practical policy challenge is figuring out an alternative to our current impulsive assertiveness. "Operation Evermore" is peculiarly American in its audacity and single-mindedness. It makes the further claim of advancing eternal American values, interests and indispensability. In truth, though, we would be better served by dedicating ourselves to curbing our instinct to interfere and intervene, by accepting a more modest sense of what we can achieve, and by qualifying the belief in our intrinsic virtue.

We cannot hope to set ourselves on that course so long as aspirants for the White House seek to establish their credentials by flexing biceps tattooed with an avenging American eagle on one arm and a unfurled flag on the other.

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Book Introduction

Kill or Capture: The War on Terror and the Soul of the Obama Presidency by Daniel Klaidman

Is Barack Obama an idealist or a ruthless pragmatist? He vowed to close Guantánamo, put an end to coercive interrogation and military tribunals, and restore American principles of justice, yet in his first term he has backtracked on each of these promises, ramping up the secret war of drone strikes and covert operations. Behind the scenes, wrenching debates between hawks and doves—those who would kill versus those who would capture—have repeatedly tested the very core of the president’s identity.

Top investigative reporter Dan Klaidman has spoken to dozens of sources to piece together a riveting Washington story packed with revelations. As the president’s inner circle debated secret programs, new legal frontiers, and the disjuncture between principles and down-and-dirty politics, Obama vacillated, sometimes lashed out, and spoke in lofty tones while approving a mounting toll of assassinations and kinetic-war operations. Klaidman’s fly-on-the-wall reporting reveals who has his ear, how key national security decisions are really made, and whether or not President Obama has lived up to the promise of candidate Obama. Readers making up their minds about him during the 2012 election year will turn to Kill or Capture to decide.




     

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More Current Affairs

Sep 11th 2021
EXTRACT: "That long path, though, has from the start had within it one fundamental flaw. If we are to make sense of wider global trends in insecurity, we have to recognise that in all the analysis around the 9/11 anniversary there lies the belief that the main security concern must be with an extreme version of Islam. It may seem a reasonable mistake, given the impact of the wars, but it still misses the point. The war on terror is better seen as one part of a global trend which goes well beyond a single religious tradition – a slow but steady move towards revolts from the margins."
Sep 11th 2021
EXTRACTS: "Is it not extraordinary that in a country that claims to be as enlightened and advanced as ours, the combined wealth of three individuals – Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, Microsoft founder Bill Gates, and investor Warren Buffett – exceeds the total wealth of the bottom half of Americans? One has to return to the days of the pharaohs of Egypt to find a parallel to the extreme wealth inequality that we see in in America today." ...... "The top tax rate remained above 90 percent through the 1950s and did not dip below 70 percent until 1981. At no point during the decades that saw America’s greatest economic growth did the tax on the wealthy drop below 70 percent. Today it is somewhere around 37 percent. President Biden’s American Families Plan would increase the top tax rate to 39.6 percent – a fairly modest alteration, albeit in the right direction. It is true that there was a time when the top marginal tax was even lower than it is today: in the years leading up to the Great Depression it hovered around 25 percent."
Sep 7th 2021
EXTRACT: "But Biden can’t be blamed for the rise of the Taliban, or the fragile state of a country that has seen far too many wars and invasions. The US should not have been there in the first place, but that is a lesson that great powers never seem to learn."
Sep 4th 2021
EXTRACT: "The world is only starting to grapple with how profound the artificial-intelligence revolution will be. AI technologies will create waves of progress in critical infrastructure, commerce, transportation, health, education, financial markets, food production, and environmental sustainability. Successful adoption of AI will drive economies, reshape societies, and determine which countries set the rules for the coming century." ----- "AI will reorganize the world and change the course of human history. The democratic world must lead that process."
Sep 1st 2021
EXTRACT: "Although the Fed is considering tapering its quantitative easing (QE), it will likely remain dovish and behind the curve overall. Like most central banks, it has been lured into a “debt trap” by the surge in private and public liabilities (as a share of GDP) in recent years. Even if inflation stays higher than targeted, exiting QE too soon could cause bond, credit, and stock markets to crash. That would subject the economy to a hard landing, potentially forcing the Fed to reverse itself and resume QE." ---- "After all, that is what happened between the fourth quarter of 2018 and the first quarter of 2019, following the Fed’s previous attempt to raise rates and roll back QE."
Sep 1st 2021
EXTRACT: "Today’s economic challenges are certainly solvable, and there is no reason why inflation should have to spike."
Aug 27th 2021
EXTRACT: "To be sure, they have focused on their agenda, which is totally misguided—not by our own account but by the account of the majority of the American population, who view the Republican party as one that has lost its moral footing to the detriment of America’s future generations, who must now inherit the ugly consequences of a party that ran asunder."
Aug 21st 2021
EXTRACTS: "Now that so many sad truths about Afghanistan are being spoken aloud, even in the major media – let me add one more: The war, from start to finish, was about politics, not in Afghanistan but in the United States. Afghanistan was always a sideshow."--- "....the 2001 invasion was fast and apparently decisive. And so it rescued George W. Bush’s tainted presidency,..." --- "Bush’s approval shot up to 90% and then steadily declined,..."
Aug 17th 2021
EXTRACT: "The Taliban’s virtually uncontested takeover over Afghanistan raises obvious questions about the wisdom of US President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw US and coalition forces from the country. Paradoxically, however, the rapidity and ease of the Taliban’s advance only reaffirms that Biden made the right decision – and that he should not reverse course. ...... The ineffectiveness and collapse of Afghanistan’s military and governing institutions largely substantiates Biden’s skepticism that US-led efforts to prop up the government in Kabul would ever enable it to stand on its own feet. The international community has spent nearly 20 years, many thousands of lives, and trillions of dollars to do good by Afghanistan – taking down al-Qaeda; beating back the Taliban; supporting, advising, training, and equipping the Afghan military; bolstering governing institutions; and investing in the country’s civil society. .... Significant progress was made, but not enough." ....... "That is because the mission was fatally flawed from the outset. It was a fool’s errand to try to turn Afghanistan into a centralized, unitary state. "
Aug 6th 2021
EXTRACT: "But even in the US, which is more lenient than most countries, the principle cannot be absolute. Inciting imminent violence is not permitted. Donald Trump’s speech on January 6, urging the mob to storm the US Capitol, certainly came close to overstepping this boundary. It was a clear demonstration that language can be dangerous. What the internet media has done is raise the stakes; “fighting words” are spread around much faster and more widely than ever before. This will require a great deal of vigilance, to protect our freedom to express ourselves, while observing the social and legal bounds that stop words from turning into actual fighting. "
Jul 27th 2021
EXTRACT: "When it comes to the Chinese economy, I have been a congenital optimist for over 25 years. But now I have serious doubts. The Chinese government has taken dead aim at its dynamic technology sector, the engine of China’s New Economy. Its recent actions are symptomatic of a deeper problem: the state’s efforts to control the energy of animal spirits." ---- "... the Chinese economy, no less than others, still requires a foundation of trust – trust in the consistency of leadership priorities, in transparent governance, and in wise regulatory oversight – to flourish. --- Modern China lacks this foundation of trust ."
Jul 25th 2021
EXTRACT: "It seems that they are, as the last 18 months have seen a remarkable expansion of the central banks’ fields of activity, largely driven by their own ambitions. So they have moved into the climate change arena, arguing that financial stability may be put at risk by rising temperatures, and that central banks, as bond purchasers and as banking supervisors, can and should be proactive in raising the cost of credit for corporations without a credible transition plan. That is a promising new line of business, which is likely to grow. ---- Central banks are also trying to move into social engineering, specifically the policy response to rising income and wealth inequality, another hot button topic with high political salience."
Jul 25th 2021
EXTRACT: "The EU’s ambitious unilateral climate strategy will transform Europe into a trade fortress, encourage green protectionism worldwide, and give other regions the opportunity to develop using cheaper energy. And without China, India, and the United States on board, other countries will be careful not to follow the EU in its self-appointed role as the world’s green guinea pig. If Europe is not careful, it will risk finding itself in a climate club of one. "
Jul 9th 2021
EXTRACT: ".... ruminants belch and fart methane, an extremely potent greenhouse gas. As a result, rearing beef cattle brings about, on average, six times the contribution to global warming as non-ruminant animals (for example, pigs) producing the same quantity of protein. ..... if projected to 2050 [beef production], would use 87% of the total quantity of emissions that is compatible with the Paris climate agreement’s objective of staying below a 2° Celsius increase in temperature."
Jul 8th 2021
EXTRACT: " .... while China’s leaders never mention it, they are just as embittered over Russia’s theft of Chinese territory in the nineteenth century as they are over the West’s imperial predations. With Western imperialism having been largely rolled back, it is Russia’s continued occupation of historic Chinese territory that stands out the most to ordinary Chinese observers. For example, the city of Vladivostok, with its vast naval base, has been a part of Russia only since 1860, when the tsars built a military harbor there. Before that, the city was known by the Manchu name of Haishenwai." ---- "There is also a demographic argument for Putin to consider: the six million Russians spread along the Siberian border face 90 million Chinese on the other side. And many of these Chinese regularly cross the border into Russia to trade (and a good number to stay)."
Jul 7th 2021
EXTRACTS: "According to a new analysis by researchers at Brown University, America’s two-decade war in Afghanistan cost it nearly $2.3 trillion. Now, Afghanistan’s neighbors – Pakistan, Iran, China, India, and the Central Asian countries – are wondering just how much it will cost them to maintain security after the United States is gone." ----- "After clandestinely supporting the Taliban as a means to undermine the US war effort, Russia now fears broader destabilization in Central Asia and beyond." ---- "Similarly, after having made nice with the Taliban, China also now fears the greater regional instability that the US withdrawal may incite. In addition to disrupting Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Eurasia-spanning Belt and Road Initiative, a revitalized Taliban could re-energize the Islamist extremist threat in China’s western Xinjiang province."
Jul 1st 2021
EXTRACT: "When former Fed Chair Paul Volcker hiked rates to tackle inflation in 1980-82, the result was a severe double-dip recession in the United States and a debt crisis and lost decade for Latin America. But now that global debt ratios are almost three times higher than in the early 1970s, any anti-inflationary policy would lead to a depression, rather than a severe recession. ---- Under these conditions, central banks will be damned if they do and damned if they don’t, and many governments will be semi-insolvent and thus unable to bail out banks, corporations, and households. The doom loop of sovereigns and banks in the eurozone after the global financial crisis will be repeated worldwide, sucking in households, corporations, and shadow banks as well. ---- As matters stand, this slow-motion train wreck looks unavoidable."
Jun 19th 2021
EXTRACT: "Xi Jinping’s call for friendship gives us an opportunity to examine Chinese politics on both the domestic and international stage. On the face of it, it suggests the possibility of rapprochement between the rich liberal democracies represented by the G7 and the authoritarian Chinese state. However, despite appearances of a call for a closer relationship, there is more than one way of being friends – and Xi’s idea might be somewhat different to what many in countries attending the G7 might expect."
Jun 12th 2021
EXTRACT: "China’s recently published census, showing that its population has almost stopped growing, brought warnings of severe problems for the country. “Such numbers make grim reading for the party,” reported The Economist. This “could have a disastrous impact on the country,” wrote Huang Wenzheng, a fellow at the Center for China and Globalization in Beijing, in the Financial Times. But a comment posted on China’s Weibo was more insightful. “The declining fertility rate actually reflects the progress in the thinking of Chinese people – women are no longer a fertility tool.” "
Jun 12th 2021
EXTRACT: " I remember recounting fellow leaders of the story of a Rwanda schoolboy caught up in the genocide of the 1990s and now immortalized in the Kigali Genocide Memorial museum, where, in a section devoted to children, one can find his photograph and a plaque that reads: ----- David, age 11 ...... Ambition: to be a doctor ...... Favorite sport: football ...... Favorite hobby: making people laugh ...... Death: by mutilation ...... Last words: the UN are coming to save us ----- In his idealism and innocence, David believed the international community would save him and his mother. We didn’t. "