Nov 2nd 2012

The Next President's Endless War Project

by Michael Brenner

Dr. Michael Brenner is a Non-Resident Fellow at the Center for Transatlantic Relations. He publishes and teaches in the fields of American foreign policy, Euro-American relations, and the European Union. He is also Professor of International Affairs at the University of Pittsburgh. Brenner is the author of numerous books, and over 60 articles and published papers on a broad range of topics. These include books with Cambridge University Press (Nuclear Power and Non-Proliferation) and the Center For International Affairs at Harvard University (The Politics of International Monetary Reform); and publications in major journals in the United States and Europe, such as World Politics, Comparative Politics, Foreign Policy, International Studies Quarterly, International Affairs, Survival, Politique Etrangere, and Internationale Politik. His most recent work is Toward A More Independent Europe, Egmont Institute, Brussels.

The long campaign of 2011-12 is straggling toward the finish line. Without Sandy's impetus it may not have made it -- or so it seems to the jaded. In this torrent of words, an innocent observer might assume that all the momentous issues facing the nation would have been subject to searching analysis and debate. That is naive. We are reminded of that distressing reality by the two candidates' ignoring of the startling revelation that the Obama administration has well advanced plans for an enlargement and extension of the "war on terror" into the indefinite future. A series of authoritative stories in the Washington Post is the source.

They detail how the United States is putting in place the ingredients of a global strategy to identify and to take preventive action against any group or individual who is judged as posing a potential threat to the U.S. or its interests. There is no limit to the geographical scope. Similarly, the conception of a threat is extremely broad. It is the same as that incorporated into a number of previous documents. Anyone who provides aid or comfort to any entity that demonstrates hostility toward America, or to one that funds such an entity, anyone who by word or deed generates support for such a group, is a valid target. Violence prone Islamic groups who call for action against the American enemy -- à la al Qaeda and its affiliates -- are core concern and the most readily identifiable. However, the policies that constitute this new "war on terror" explicitly go far beyond that in the broad definition of the "enemy" and in the methods envisaged to crush it.

The war against al Qaeda is turning into a war against Islamic fundamentalism -- in most of its forms and manifestations. In other words, the prevailing thinking is that any fundamentalist group could morph into a jihadist entity and/or affiliate itself with one and/or provide indirect support for one. It now is American policy to prevent that chain from developing -- in addition to preventing hostile action itself. By this process of logical regression the world inhabited by untold numbers of fundamentalist Muslims has become the "danger." The implication is that until that world is remade, the United States is bound to contend by all means necessary to neutralize it.

The strategy is the brainchild of Barack Obama and his entire foreign policy team. The White House terrorism chief John Brennan is its designated master builder. There is every reason to expect that it would be adopted by a Romney administration. For it conforms closely to his own views and those of his hand picked, ultra hawkish advisors. Most of them are veterans of the Bush administration.

The plan envisages a running war on numerous fronts that has no visible termination point or measure of success. It will involve covert operations (CIA & Special Forces), some not so covert operations, a proliferation of drone strikes, political interventions on a sustained basis, and whatever else our masters in the Homeland Security universe can dream up. The resulting mayhem (for which Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, et. al. are precursors) will be widespread and at times intense. Benghazi likely will be repeated -- perhaps on a larger scale. For we are wading ever deeper into the internal affairs of foreign countries across a vast span of the globe with a faulty GPS and no clear destination. Moreover, the missions are either coercive or entail subordinating prudent diplomacy to the audacious conviction that we have the means, and the necessity, to determine how alien peoples organize their political life and the creeds they live by.

Hence, Secretary Clinton has just announced that Washington is bending itself to the daunting task of orchestrating the formation of a fresh coordinating body for the Syrian opposition. This despite the awkward truth that none of the significant factions has asked us to do so and we are jettisoning the Western oriented coordinating body which, whatever its shortcomings, is the only group sympathetic to the United States. We seemingly have learned nothing from our misadventures elsewhere in the greater Middle East.

There are three elementary but critical flaws to this emerging "Operation Evermore" which have eluded the administration and also the foreign policy community more broadly from whom we have heard not one noteworthy skeptical comment. The central error is the casting together of the diverse movements as one finds under the label Islamic fundamentalist. Any sensible approach toward comprehending the elusive phenomenon we call Islamic fundamentalism would first get a fix on what practical meaning any sect or movement has. We must begin by parsing the term. At the literal level, 'Islamist' refers to any formation that identifies itself as drawing on Muslim tradition. That is to say, they are not avowedly secular as was the Ba'ath Party at its origins.

Salafism refers to those who promote a literal reading of the Koran and ancillary texts, the organizing of society on the principles and practices laid down in sharia law, and uniting the Believers of the ummah in a manifest spiritual community. An essential complementary element of Salafists is the rejection of foreign influences and 'modernity'. F. B. Ali underscores that "This often translates into opposition to foreigners, foreign powers and Muslims believed to be influenced by or allied to foreigners. Some Salafis (and Wahhabis) take this opposition further by engaging in Jihad against foreign 'infidels' which in today's popular usage means a struggle that involves violence. They "are properly termed Jihadis. Thus, all Jihadis are usually Salafis, but not all Salafis are Jihadis." The House of Saud are salafists; Osama bin Laden was a jihadi. Saudi leaders at times see the Kingdom's political advantage in enabling or even encouraging Jihadist action -- as they did in Afghanistan, Iraq and now Syria. That is a tactical judgment largely free of theological content.

The second flaw in "Operation Forevermore" is its exaggeration of the chances of succeeding. Beyond our dismal record of the past decade, there is the improbable project of shaping the internal dynamics of turbulent societies where we are viewed with animosity by many and distrust by almost all the rest of the population. To official Washington, though, the entire world is Honduras.

Third, this inevitably will provoke various types of violent reaction -- over there and perhaps over here, i.e. turning parochial fundamentalists into anti-American terrorists. In the process, we will have paid a hefty price in terms of diminished influence on a host of other important issues ranging from Indo-Pakistan tensions to Iran. As a consequence, America will be less safe and less respected, and less able to help orient an interdependent world of diffuse power and many players..

The great intellectual, as well as practical policy challenge is figuring out an alternative to our current impulsive assertiveness. "Operation Evermore" is peculiarly American in its audacity and single-mindedness. It makes the further claim of advancing eternal American values, interests and indispensability. In truth, though, we would be better served by dedicating ourselves to curbing our instinct to interfere and intervene, by accepting a more modest sense of what we can achieve, and by qualifying the belief in our intrinsic virtue.

We cannot hope to set ourselves on that course so long as aspirants for the White House seek to establish their credentials by flexing biceps tattooed with an avenging American eagle on one arm and a unfurled flag on the other.

Please rate and comment this article below




Book Introduction

Kill or Capture: The War on Terror and the Soul of the Obama Presidency by Daniel Klaidman

Is Barack Obama an idealist or a ruthless pragmatist? He vowed to close Guantánamo, put an end to coercive interrogation and military tribunals, and restore American principles of justice, yet in his first term he has backtracked on each of these promises, ramping up the secret war of drone strikes and covert operations. Behind the scenes, wrenching debates between hawks and doves—those who would kill versus those who would capture—have repeatedly tested the very core of the president’s identity.

Top investigative reporter Dan Klaidman has spoken to dozens of sources to piece together a riveting Washington story packed with revelations. As the president’s inner circle debated secret programs, new legal frontiers, and the disjuncture between principles and down-and-dirty politics, Obama vacillated, sometimes lashed out, and spoke in lofty tones while approving a mounting toll of assassinations and kinetic-war operations. Klaidman’s fly-on-the-wall reporting reveals who has his ear, how key national security decisions are really made, and whether or not President Obama has lived up to the promise of candidate Obama. Readers making up their minds about him during the 2012 election year will turn to Kill or Capture to decide.




     

Browse articles by author

More Current Affairs

Mar 24th 2021
EXTRACT: "the UK’s tough choices accumulate, and the problems lurking around the corner look menacing. Britain will have to make the best of Brexit. But it will be a long, hard struggle, all the more so with an evasive fabulist in charge."
Mar 15th 2021
EXTRACT: "Over the years, the approach of most American policymakers toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been Israel-centric with near total disregard for the suffering endured by the Palestinian people. The architects of policy in successive US administrations have discussed the conflict as if the fate of only one party (Israel) really mattered. Israelis were treated as full human beings with hopes and fears, while Palestinians were reduced to a problem that needed to be solved so that Israelis could live in peace and security.  ..... It is not just that Israelis and Palestinians haven’t been viewed with an equal measure of concern. It’s worse than that. It appears that Palestinians were judged as less ​human than Israelis, and were, therefore, not entitled to make demands to have their rights recognized and protected."
Mar 8th 2021
EXTRACTS: "XThere’s a global shortage in semiconductors, and it’s becoming increasingly serious." ...... "The automotive sector has been worst affected by the drought, in an era where microchips now form the backbone of most cars. Ford is predicting a 20% slump in production and Tesla shut down its model 3 assembly line for two weeks. In the UK, Honda was forced to temporarily shut its plant as well." ..... " As much as 70% of the world’s semiconductors are manufactured by just two companies, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) and Samsung."
Mar 5th 2021
EXTRACT: "Back in 1992, Lawrence H. Summers, then the chief economist at the World Bank, and I warned that pushing the US Federal Reserve’s annual inflation target down from 4% to 2% risked causing big problems. Not only was the 4% target not producing any discontent, but a 2% target would increase the risk of the Fed’s interest-rate policy hitting the zero lower bound. Our objections went unheeded. Fed Chair Alan Greenspan reduced the inflation target to 2%, and we have been paying for it ever since. I have long thought that many of our economic problems would go away if we could rejigger asset markets in such a way as to make a 5% federal funds rate consistent with full employment in the late stage of a business cycle."
Mar 2nd 2021
EXTRACT: "Under these conditions, the Fed is probably worried that markets will instantly crash if it takes away the punch bowl. And with the increase in public and private debt preventing the eventual monetary normalization, the likelihood of stagflation in the medium term – and a hard landing for asset markets and economies – continues to increase."
Mar 1st 2021
EXTRACT: "Massive fiscal and monetary stimulus programs in the United States and other advanced economies are fueling a raging debate about whether higher inflation could be just around the corner. Ten-year US Treasury yields and mortgage rates are already climbing in anticipation that the US Federal Reserve – the de facto global central bank – will be forced to hike rates, potentially bursting asset-price bubbles around the world. But while markets are probably overstating short-term inflation risks for 2021, they do not yet fully appreciate the longer-term dangers."
Feb 28th 2021
EXTRACT: "To be sure, calls to “build back better” from the pandemic imply some awareness of the need for systemic change. But the transformation we need extends beyond constructing modern infrastructure or unlocking private investment in any one country. We need to re-orient – indeed, re-invent – global politics, so that countries can cooperate far more effectively in creating a better world."
Feb 23rd 2021
EXTRACT: "So, notwithstanding the predictable release of pent-up demand for consumer durables, face-to-face services show clear evidence – in terms of both consumer demand and employment – of permanent scarring. Consequently, with the snapback of pent-up demand for durables nearing its point of exhaustion, the recovery of the post-pandemic US economy is likely to fall well short of vaccine development’s “warp speed.” "
Feb 20th 2021
EXTRACT: "Human rights abuses under Erdogan are beyond the pale of inhumanity and moral decadence. The list of Erdogan’s violations and cruelty is too long to numerate. The detention and horrifying torture of thousands of innocent people for months and at times for years, without being charged, is hard to fathom. Many prisoners are left languishing in dark cells, often in solitary confinement. The detention of tens of thousands of men and hundreds of women, many with their children, especially following the 2016 failed coup, has become common. It is calculated to inflict horrendous pain and suffering to bring the prisoners to the breaking point, so that they confess to crimes they have never committed."
Feb 20th 2021
Courtyard of the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, circa 1670, (Job Adriaenszoon Berckheyde).
Feb 12th 2021
EXTRACT: "Global regulators will no doubt be concerned about a potential volatility spillover from digital asset prices into traditional capital markets. They may not permit what could quickly amount to effective proxy approval by the back door for companies holding large proportions of a volatile asset on their balance sheets."
Feb 11th 2021
EXTRACT: "Since Russians began protesting opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s imprisonment, the security forces have apparently had carte blanche to arrest demonstrators – and they have done so by the thousands. If Russians so much as honk their car horns in solidarity with the protesters, they risk personal repercussions. The official response to the protests goes beyond the Kremlin’s past repression. It is war."
Feb 6th 2021
EXTRACT: ".......like Biden, Roosevelt was certainly no revolutionary. His task was to save American capitalism. He was a repairer, a fixer. The New Deal was achieved not because of Roosevelt’s genius or heroism, but because enough people trusted him to act in good faith. That is precisely what people are expecting from Biden, too. He must save US democracy from the ravages of a political crisis. To do so, he must reestablish trust in the system. He has promised to make his country less polarized, and to restore civility and truth to political discourse. In this endeavor, his lack of charisma may turn out to be his greatest strength. For all that he lacks in grandeur, he makes up for by exuding an air of decency."
Feb 2nd 2021
EXTRACT: "Europe must not lose sight of the long game, which inevitably will center on China, not Russia or relations with post-Brexit Britain. China is already establishing a presence in Iran, and demonstrating that it has the capital, know-how, and technology to project power and influence beyond its borders. Should it succeed in turning the Belt and Road Initiative into a line of geopolitical stepping-stones, it might soon emerge at Europe’s southeastern border in a form that no one in the EU foresaw."
Jan 29th 2021
EXTRACT: "One sign of this change is that, unlike all recent Democratic administrations, Biden’s hasn’t paid obeisance to Wall Street by giving bankers top jobs. The new Secretary of the Treasury, Janet Yellen, is a former Federal Reserve chair and academic who has made it clear that she understands the country’s pressing social needs. Moreover, Biden consulted Warren on her economic views, and has named a former Warren adviser as Yellen’s deputy. Yellen’s appointment demonstrates that Biden shares the insight that enabled Trump’s rise: that too many Americans feel that they cannot get a fair share. "
Jan 24th 2021
EXTRACT: "Barack Obama cautioned in his final speech as president that, “Our democracy is threatened whenever we take it for granted.” Yet isn’t that exactly what America has been doing? In a decade punctuated by the global financial crisis, the COVID-19 crisis, a racial-justice crisis, an inequality crisis, and now a political crisis, we have only paid lip service to lofty democratic ideals. ... Sadly, this complacency has come at a time of growing fragility for the American experiment. Internet-enabled connectivity is dangerously amplifying an increasingly polarized national discourse in an era of mounting social and political instability. The resulting vulnerability was brought into painfully sharp focus on January 6. The stewardship of democracy is at grave risk. "
Jan 23rd 2021
EXTRACT: "To be sure, if cornered, any populist might resort to Trump’s endgame methods: trying to coerce elites into committing fraud to prevent a transfer of power, or deploying right-wing extremists on the ground to intimidate lawmakers. These desperate acts signaled Trump’s weakness. But it is important to note that most Republicans still did not disown Trump even when confronted with his blatant lawlessness on January 6. ... Other right-wing populists may well take notice of this fact. The recent events in the United States have shown that elites who are prepared to collaborate with authoritarians will tolerate quite a lot in the end. This ignominious precedent is especially likely to hold true in other countries where crony capitalism has implicated the business community in illegal behavior."    
Jan 21st 2021
EXTRACT: "May, a decent and honest woman, was far outdistanced by her successor and his colleagues in the Trump sycophancy stakes. In January 2017, Johnson’s senior fellow Brexiteer and principal ministerial fixer, Michael Gove (a former journalist with The Times newspaper), conducted an interview with then President-elect Trump that plumbed new depths of oleaginous toadyism. Gove wallowed in Trump’s endorsement of Brexit. It subsequently came to light that Gove’s then-employer, Rupert Murdoch, was in the room while the interview took place. And why not? The owner of Fox News as well as The Times was entitled to keep an eye on his two protégés."
Jan 21st 2021
EXTRACTS: "Does anyone really think that the vast majority of Republican legislators who could not bring themselves to object to the attempted coup at the Capitol — or any of the other outrageous antics Trump has unleashed on America for the past four years — will suddenly experience sleepless nights and pangs of conscience now that he is gone? Au contraire. This band of spineless, morally bankrupt congresspeople and senators are far more likely to follow Trump and carry Trumpism into the 2024 presidential election." ..... "A recent survey of Europeans revealed that the majority believe that America’s political system is hopelessly broken, that President Biden will be unable to halt its decline on the world stage, and that China will become the world’s leading power within a decade. What if they are right? America’s Trump-inspired death spiral has practically ensured any real recovery will likely take decades — and multiple terms with a Democratic president and Congress at the helm — to achieve."
Jan 19th 2021
EXTRACT: "What our polling tells us is that what the peoples of Middle East want is regional unity and investment in the future that can bring peace and prosperity. They’ve had enough of war and want ​stable employment, education, health care, and better future for their children. It’s time we start listening to them."